Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Box: This. Girl. Is on Fire. OH GOD PUT HER OUT!!!

1. THE HUNGER GAMES: CATCHING FIRE - $170m
Here's the top 10 opening weekends of all time.  My prediction would put this in third, though it wouldn't take much more for it to claim #2.  Tracking has it at in the low 190's, which I don't see happening because it's not in 3D.  I'm still predicting it to be the highest grossing film of the year, and expect it to do about $425m domestically.

2. THOR: THE DARK WORLD - $15.5m
A steep, but expected drop again.  Hunger Games is really going to obliterate everything, though it might help Thor that Marvel's films tend to play very similar to family-aimed films.  After the weekend, it'll be at just under $170m.  With a good holiday hold, it'll likely finish with about $215m.

3. THE BEST MAN HOLIDAY - $14m
Despite a 14 year gap between installments, Best Man Holiday had a fantastic opening with a massive PTA.  Unfortunately, films aimed at black audiences have very bad legs.  It won't help that Black Nativity opens Wednesday, and A Madea Christmas opens on December 13th.  (Really, 3 Christmas themed movies aimed at African Americans in a matter of several weeks?  Despite there not being one since 2007's This Christmas?  Spread it out, Hollywood!)  Holiday only cost $17m, so it'll still be a very nice profit when it finishes with about $80m. 

4. DELIVERY MAN - $12m
I have no idea if this counter programming will work, as the adverisement seems very light.  However, comedies have been outperforming expectations all year.  It's also the only major comedy over the Thanksgiving holiday, as Bad Grandpa will probably be losing a load of theaters.  The Vince Vaughn-starrer should grab a similar gross as his summer underperformer The Internship - somewhere in the 40's.

5. FREE BIRDS - $5m
This will probably be the only film this weekend to manage a decent hold. 

6. LAST VEGAS - $5m
Perhaps this one, too.

7. JACKASS PRESENTS BAD GRANDPA - $3.5m
I never expected this to have the legs it did, Grandpa will gross about $105m.

8. GRAVITY - $3.5m
Gravity will see its biggest drop (har-har), which still won't be more than 50%.  This weekend will take it to about $246m.

9. DALLAS BUYERS CLUB - $3m
This has proven to be a stellar performer in limited so far, and I believe it's going to be in about 600 theaters this weekend.  A must-see performance and a crowd pleasing plot, it's run will be very similar to Focus' 2008 Oscar-winner Milk.  That ended up grossing $32m, and that total seems right for this as well. 

10. 12 YEARS A SLAVE - $3m
This isn't quite having the oomph in wide release that it did in limited.  I guess some people won't see it because it's too depressing, which annoys me.  Just under $30m after the weekend, I think with an awards bump we're looking at about $65-75m total. 

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