Only voting in categories where I've seen everything. My non-access to Sirât and Kokuho keeps me out of three categories, and I'm not touching that Diane Warren doc. Viva Verdi! is apparently only available for $15 on the production company's official site, so I ain't touching that shit either.
I did see 3 of the docs and 4 of the international features, and that's a record pre-ceremony.
So...
VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar: Fire and Ash
It's been there/done that, but still the best of this field.
SCORE: One Battle After Another
Sinners is quite good, too.
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Frankenstein
Love that they nominated One Battle as they usually skip modern films.
COSTUME DESIGN: Frankenstein
The Ugly Stepsister should've gotten in here, too.
FILM EDITING: One Battle After Another
CINEMATOGRAPHY: One Battle After Another
Sinners hits some real highs (the cotton fields!), but the last act is just so murky. Train Dreams looks beautiful, but its more about what its filming instead of how.
CASTING: The Secret Agent
This is an easy pick for me. That ensemble is deep, filled with so many perfectly played small parts. Exactly why this category should exist.
ANIMATED FEATURE: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
I actually like KPop Demon Hunters, so I don't think it will be a bad winner at all.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: One Battle After Another
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Sentimental Value
Supporting Actor:
1. Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård - Sentimental Value
3. Benecio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
4. Delroy Lindo - Sinners
5. Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
I liked Elordi and think he's been quite good in several films I've seen, but don't think he does anything special as the monster. Lindo has two really great scenes before fading into the background. Del Toro has a great character who lingers with you long after the film ends. I might consider voting for Stellan, because Sean doesn't need three Oscars. But again, I'm not actually voting for these, so I say Sean gave the best performance here. It'll be the first Oscar he actually deserves, too. I'd put him behind Rourke in 2008, and behind Kingsley, Murray, and Law in 2003.
Supporting Actress:
1. Amy Madigan - Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
4. Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
5. Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
Teyana should have been nominated for A Thousand and One, Wunmi for His House. (See those if you haven't!) Amy would be such a cool win. Genuinely iconic character, and such a great actress who never gets these moments to shine.
Leading Actor:
1. Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
2. Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
3. Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
4. Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme
5. Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
Ethan does what he can, but that's such a distracting miscasting. The obviously shaved hairline, the angles to hide his height! Chalamet doesn't do anything he hasn't shown us before. He should have won on his first nomination, but I don't think he has much range. Jordan is a full on movie star, but I don't think he's really shown to be the most versatile actor. Hopefully, he continues to get opportunities to grow. Leo is great, he's one of my faves. Wagner is the best here. Jesse Plemons WUZ robbed! Anxiously awaiting Josh O'Connor to finally get his first nom.
Leading Actress:
1. Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
2. Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
3. Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
4. Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
5. Emma Stone - Bugonia
Rose gives the best performance of the year. She should be winning everything. Love Jessie, though! (Watch Wild Rose!) My hottest award season take of the year is that Kate Hudson is actually really good in that mediocre film, totally old school Oscar bait. Solid lineup, all things considered!
Directing: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Best Picture:
1. One Battle After Another
This is my choice for best film of 2025. If it wins Best Picture, it would be the first time since 2002 that my fave won Best Picture. We really need to get Regina Hall that Oscar role.
2. Bugonia
A nice recovery from the misfire of Kinds of Kindness. I think I read someone describe this as the most nihilistic movie to ever be nominated for Best Picture. I take that as a compliment.
3. Sentimental Value
Loved Joachim's Oslo August 31 and The Worst Person in the World. If you haven't seen those, do!
4. The Secret Agent
The middle act struggles a bit, but the cast and careful storytelling are amazing. Should have also been nominated for Production Design and Cinematography.
5. Sinners
Has some high highs, and I'm always down for horror getting Academy recognition. Watching it again, my favorite sequence is "Rocky Road to Dublin". In fact, I wish this has just gone all out and been a musical Deep South vampire movie, but so much is just too standard of a vampire film. Quite a few other films did that aspect better and never got this level of recognition.
6. Train Dreams
This is so something that I thought would be My Exact Type of Thing. While I really enjoyed it, it never quite got to the next level. I hope Joel gets nominated someday. I'd totally live in the PNW woods with him.
7. Frankenstein
Always love some Guillermo, but again I must ask where was the Academy when Crimson Peak was released??? It's good, but outside of some techs probably didn't deserve this big of love throughout the season.
8. Hamnet
The Rider and Nomadland were the best or nearly the best of their respective years. This didn't totally gel for me, but bless Zhao for giving us that peak of Mescal's ass.
9. Marty Supreme
I think this is the better Safdie brother film this year, but I haven't really loved their previous work. Great casting (minus that Shark Tank asshole) and production design. Someone get Chalamet an actual comedy. I bet Gwyneth is laughing to herself like "for once I'm not even in the top 3 most annoying people associated with a movie"!
10. F1
Yeah, I haven't liked any of Kosinski's films. Kerry Condon innocent!
