I'll make another post soon detailing my personal picks. There are quite a few close races, with Actor and Supporting Actress now looking up for grabs after both initially looked very predictable.
VISUAL EFFECTS:
Avatar: Fire and Ash - F1 - Jurassic World: Rebirth - The Lost Bus - Sinners
Starting with an easy, safe prediction that AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH gets this.
SOUND:
F1 - Frankenstein - One Battle After Another - Sinners - Sirât
This might show a sign of strength for the Picture frontrunners, but F1 wins just for being the typical loud nominee.
ORIGINAL SONG:
"Dear Me" - Diane Warren: Relentless
"Golden" - KPop Demon Hunters
"I Lied To You" - Sinners
"Sweet Dreams of Joy" - Viva Verdi!
"Train Dreams" - Train Dreams
The ubiquitous "GOLDEN" will hold off the Sinners number.
ORIGINAL SCORE:
Bugonia - Frankenstein - Hamnet - One Battle After Another - Sinners
The music category that SINNERS should easily take.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Frankenstein - Kokuho - Sinners - The Smashing Machine - The Ugly Stepsister
The beginning of a mini-sweep for FRANKENSTEIN.
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Frankenstein - Hamnet - Marty Supreme - One Battle After Another - Sinners
Marty and Sinners might get some decent votes, but FRANKENSTEIN is ahead.
COSTUME DESIGN:
Avatar: Fire and Ash - Frankenstein - Hamnet - Marty Supreme - Sinners
FRANKENSTEIN is the showiest, and that wins here most of the time.
FILM EDITING:
F1 - Marty Supreme - One Battle After Another - Sentimental Value - Sinners
While the racecar movie can't be underestimated, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER will prevail.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Hamnet - Marty Supreme - One Battle After Another - Sinners - Train Dreams
Ooh, this is one to watch. Don't totally count out Train Dreams. If One Battle does win here, it's probably a sign of its overall strength. But SINNERS will make a historic win for the first woman to ever take this category.
CASTING:
Hamnet - Marty Supreme - One Battle After Another - The Secret Agent - Sinners
For the first Oscar in this category, SINNERS wins. Hamnet would be the only surprise here, as the other three have their pros.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
It Was Just An Accident - The Secret Agent - Sentimental Value - Sirât - The Voice of Hind Rajab
Tight race between Brazil and Norway, but SENTIMENTAL VALUE's overall performance indicates it is bigger.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
The Alabama Solution - Come See Me in the Good Light - Cutting Through Rocks - Mr. Nobody Against Putin - The Perfect Neighbor
The most visible and talked about is THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR, and that usually wins here.
ANIMATED FEATURE:
Arco - Elio - KPop Demon Hunters - Little Amélie or the Character of Rain - Zootopia 2
The phenomenon of KPOP DEMON HUNTERS takes the trophy.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Bugonia - Frankenstein - Hamnet - One Battle After Another - Train Dreams
Easy call for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Blue Moon - It Was Just an Accident - Marty Supreme - Sentimental Value - Sinners
Pretty easy call for SINNERS.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Benecio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo - Sinners
Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård - Sentimental Value
What a ride this category has been. Benecio won the bulk of the critics awards. Stellan won the Globe, Jacob won the Critics Choice, Sean won the SAG & BAFTA. And people have convinced themselves Delroy is another Marcia Gay Harden. But the two industry awards signals SEAN PENN wins his third Oscar. Would love to see the breakdown of this category.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan - Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another
The Value ladies hopefully will have comfortable seats. Teyana seemed like the frontrunner early in the season, but then Wunmi won the BAFTA. Amy took the SAG & Critics Choice. There hasn't been an acting winner representing the only nomination for their film since Julianne Moore 11 years ago. In this category, the last time it happened was Penélope Cruz 17 years ago. However, Madigan is an industry vet and between her and and her husband have worked with a shit-ton of people. Wunmi winning would be a sign of Sinners overall strength. An exciting race which I think AMY MADIGAN will just barely win, overcoming both genre bias and lack of strength of her film. Another tight race.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
So Chalamet was considered a strong lock until he lost BAFTA & SAG. This century, only a small handful (six, I believe?) of acting winners have won without taking at least one of them. There's also considerable backlash against them, which leads two beneficiaries: Jordan and Moura. Moura is getting a lot of love from the the non-American faction of voters. Jordan got the SAG and a big reception. I think MICHAEL B. JORDAN wins, but just barely.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
Emma Stone - Bugonia
Well, at least one of the acting categories is easy: JESSIE BUCKLEY wins.
DIRECTING:
Chloé Zhao - Hamnet
Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler - Sinners
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON. Fourth time is the charm.
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
It's gonna be close, very close, but ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER wins by a nose. Interesting to note no film has won the awards that One Battle has won and lost Best Picture. And fascinatingly enough, the same applies to Sinners.
DARREN'S FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Documentary Short: All the Empty Rooms
(alt: Armed With Only a Camera)
Best Short Film - Animated: Butterfly
(alt: The Girl Who Cried Pearls)
Best Short Film - Live Action: Two People Exchanging Saliva
(alt: A Friend of Dorothy)
Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash
(alt: F1)
Best Sound: F1
(alt: Sinners)
Best Original Song: "Golden" - KPop Demon Hunters
(alt: "I Lied To You" - Sinners)
Best Original Score: Sinners
(alt: One Battle After Another)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein
(alt: Sinners)
Best Production Design: Frankenstein
(alt: Marty Supreme)
Best Costume Design: Frankenstein
(alt: Sinners)
Best Film Editing: One Battle After Another
(alt: F1)
Best Cinematography: Sinners
(alt: One Battle After Another)
Best Casting: Sinners
(alt: One Battle After Another)
Best International Feature: Sentimental Value
(alt: The Secret Agent)
Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
(alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin)
Best Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters
(alt: Zootopia 2)
Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another
(alt: Hamnet)
Best Original Screenplay: Sinners
(alt: Sentimental Value)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
(alt:Stellan Skarsgård - Sentimental Value )
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Amy Madigan - Weapons
(alt: Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners)
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
(alt: Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme)
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
(alt: Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
Best Directing: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
(alt: Ryan Coogler - Sinners)
Best Picture: One Battle After Another
(alt: Sinners)
WINS:
OBAA - 5
Sinners - 5
Frankenstein - 3
KPop Demon Hunters - 2
No comments:
Post a Comment