Box: The Stuffed Games

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $64m
It opened a very tiny amount below expectations, but still very very good.  After the long holiday weekend, it should be at $280m.  I'm not sure it'll cross $400m, it's early December legs will tell. 

2. Frozen - $39m
This is probably going higher, but I feel like being safe.  A 5-day in the mid 50's, what I'm predicting, is probably the minimum.  There wasn't any official tracking, but the major publications are predicting a 5-day in the 70's.  That would be spectacular and just what the market needs.  Tangled did similar business 3 years ago.  (I saw this last night - cute movie.  Felt very old school Disney with all the musical numbers.)

3. Thor: The Dark World - $12m
Things really drop off after #2.  This will get it to just below $190m, so it probably finishes at about $210-215m.

4. Black Nativity - $9m
In just over 1500 theaters, that would be a very good number.  A $14m 5-day, but with Madea in two weeks, it'll probably only get to about $30m total. 

5. Homefront - $8.5m
Statham did okay with the last Transporter movie in this slot, and there now seems to be a Thanksgiving light action movie every year.  The 5-day number will barely miss the teens, and total will only be about $25m. 

6. Delivery Man - $6.5m
Definitely an underwhelming number last week, and it'll only be at about $19m after this weekend.  A total gross in the high 20's, so Vince Vaughn better reconsider his next comedy script.

7. The Best Man Holiday - $5.5m
It'll finish its run in the low 70's, more than double the original from 14 years ago.  Very good!  The third one has been greenlit.

8. Free Birds - $5m
This will have the strongest hold of the films in the top 10, and will be just below $60m after the weekend. 

9. The Book Thief - $3.5m
This is being expanded into about 1200 theaters after doing fine if unspectacular in limited.  It's getting a decent push, but I can't imagine it going any higher.  This will get it to $6m so far, and maybe a total in the mid teens depending on whether word of mouth can overcome lackluster reviews.

10. Last Vegas - $3.5m
It's not CBS Films' highest grossing film, which is like being the prettiest girl in South Dakota. 

Outside the top 10...

Philomena - $3m
Expanding rather aggressively into just under 800 theaters, it's getting a decent marketing push.  Weinstein probably should have spread out his holiday Oscar contenders a little better. 

Gravity - $2.5m
Just under $250m after the weekend.

12 Years a Slave - $2.5m
It's going to start losing theaters, and will probably plateau at around a couple hundred theaters until the Oscar rerelease in mid-January.  That number will get it to about $33m, so probably $40m by the end of the year. 

Dallas Buyers Club - $2m
This didn't expand as well as expected, probably too many adult-aimed films in release.  They should have kept the original October roll-out plan.  By Sunday evening, Dallas will be just below $10m and with an Oscar bump looks to be headed toward a total gross in the low 20's. 

Jackass Present Bad Grandpa - $2m
This gets it to $99m, so I think it's safely crossing $100m. 

Happy Thanksgiving!  Go see a movie, there's plenty of choices!

ETA: I forgot about Oldboy, and most audiences will.

Oldboy - $.8m
Just over a million for the 5-day.  It's so odd when an anticipated movie arrives in just over 500 theaters and is seemingly dumped by the studio.  Reviews are all over the place.