93rd Oscar Winnerdix

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

LOVE AND MONSTERS

THE MIDNIGHT SKY

MULAN

THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN

TENET

WILL WIN: I think TENET probably gets it on name recognition alone, but it's worth noting apparently the studio didn't send screeners.

BEST SOUND

GREYHOUND

MANK

NEWS OF THE WOLD

SOUL

SOUND OF METAL

WILL WIN: It would be hard to top the movie that used innovative ways to tell its story and has the word of the category in the title - SOUND OF METAL.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"HUSAVIK" - EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: THE STORY OF FIRE SAGA
"FIGHT FOR YOU" - JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
"IO SI (SEEN)" - THE LIFE AHEAD
"SPEAK NOW" - ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...
"HEAR MY VOICE" - THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

WILL WIN: A case could be made for any of these, but it might be Leslie's double noms that helps "SPEAK NOW" win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

DA 5 BLOODS
MANK
MINARI
NEWS OF THE WORLD
SOUL

WILL WIN: SOUL has won the share of these throughout season and I don't look for any of the others to top it. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
EMMA
HILLBILLY ELEGY
MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
PINOCCHIO

WILL WIN: MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
THE FATHER
MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
NEWS OF THE WORLD
TENET

WILL WIN: MANK 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

EMMA
MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
MULAN
PINOCCHIO

WILL WIN: While Emma seems like the classic winner here, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM has dominated all season. Probably a closer race than most think, and Mulan is lurking there, too. 

BEST FILM EDITING
THE FATHER
NOMADLAND
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
SOUND OF METAL
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

WILL WIN: Should be a very telling category. If Nomadland wins, it's probably a sign that the evening is over for everything else. Sound of Metal has won a share of these, because people are confusing it with Whiplash. A close race, but THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 is really showy, and that usually wins out. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

MANK

NEWS OF THE WORLD

NOMADLAND

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

WILL WIN: Despite Mank getting the ASC, NOMADLAND will prevail. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

ANOTHER ROUND
BETTER DAYS
COLLECTIVE
MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN
QUO VADIS, AIDA?

WILL WIN: ANOTHER ROUND

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
COLLECTIVE
CRIP CAMP
THE MOLE AGENT
MY OCTOPUS TEACHER
TIME

WILL WIN: A month or so ago, it seemed like Time or Crip Camp had this. But leave it to the much hyped up Netflix nature doc MY OCTOPUS TEACHER to absorb the late buzz. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
ONWARD
OVER THE MOON
A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON
SOUL
WOLFWALKERS

WILL WIN: SOUL

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

THE FATHER

NOMADLAND

ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...

THE WHITE TIGER

WILL WIN: The Father is putting up a strong last minute fight, but NOMADLAND should prevail.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

MINARI

PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

SOUND OF METAL

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

WILL WIN: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, but Sorkin can't be ruled out. 

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
SACHA BARON COHEN - THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
DANIEL KALUUYA - JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
LESLIE ODOM JR - ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...
PAUL RACI - SOUND OF METAL
LAKEITH STANFIELD - JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

WILL WIN: DANIEL KALUUYA

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

MARIA BAKALOVA - BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

GLENN CLOSE - HILLBILLY ELEGY

OLIVIA COLMAN - THE FATHER

AMANDA SEYFRIED - MANK

YUH-JUNG YOUN - MINARI

WILL WIN: What a journey this category has been! From Glenn Close looking like she was finally winning, to Amanda Seyfried potentially upsetting her, to Maria Bakalova pulling a Tomei/Sorvino and winning for a comedic performance by an ingenue, to YUH-JUNG YOUN actually accepting the Oscar. 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

RIZ AHMED - SOUND OF METAL

CHADWICK BOSEMAN - MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM

ANTHONY HOPKINS - THE FATHER

GARY OLDMAN - MANK

STEVEN YEUN - MINARI

WILL WIN: While half the pundits have switched to Hopkins, I still think CHADWICK BOSEMAN will just edge him out. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

VIOLA DAVIS - MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM

ANDRA DAY - THE UNITED STATES VS BILLIE HOLIDAY

VANESSA KIRBY - PIECES OF A WOMAN

FRANCES MCDORMAND - NOMADLAND

CAREY MULLIGAN - PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

WILL WIN: Finally - a legit race in this category, probably the first time since Kidman won "by a nose". Rule out Kirby. Sorry, Vanessa! I think the BAFTA win probably led people to believe Frances had more support than she does. She'll win an Oscar Sunday night, just not here. That leaves the remaining three. Day's Globe win showed she has a lot of support, and damn is it a showy performance. But the film is shit and has zero support anywhere else, and who is the last woman to win in this category on her first performance? That leaves Davis and Mulligan. The idea of Ma Rainey winning 4 Oscars without a Picture nom is odd, especially when it looks like overall the Academy wasn't crazy about it. For awhile, it looked like Mulligan would steamroll through the season with a buzzy film and a decade of terrific work under her belt. She was a weak frontrunner, until she wasn't a frontrunner. So I'm gonna go with VIOLA DAVIS who makes sense as the 2nd Black woman to win Actress and the first to win two acting Oscars. 

BEST DIRECTING

THOMAS VINTERBERG - ANOTHER ROUND

DAVID FINCHER - MANK

LEE ISAAC CHUNG - MINARI

CHLOE ZHAO - NOMADLAND

EMERALD FENNELL - PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

WILL WIN: CHLOE ZHAO

BEST PICTURE

THE FATHER

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

MANK

MINARI

NOMADLAND

PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

SOUND OF METAL

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

WILL WIN: NOMADLAND. The problem with Trial and Woman is that neither could really win enough to be a certain second place. The former feels like a Picture winner from the 90's, while the latter probably has too many detractors.

DARREN'S 93RD OSCAR PREDICTIONS (TL,DR)

Best Short Film - Animated: If Anything Happens I Love You

(alt: Opera)

Best Documentary - Short Subject: A Concerto Is a Conversation

(alt: A Love Song for Latasha)

Best Short Film - Live Action: The Letter Room

(alt: Two Distant Strangers)

Best Visual Effects: Tenet

(alt: The Midnight Sky)

Best Sound: Sound of Metal

(alt: Soul)

Best Original Song: "Speak Now" - One Night in Miami...

(alt: "Io Si (Seen)" - The Life Ahead)

Best Original Score: Soul

(at: Mank)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

(alt: Pinocchio)

Best Production Design: Mank

(alt: The Father)

Best Costume Design; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

(alt: Emma)

Best Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7

(alt: Sound of Metal)

Best Cinematography: Nomadland

(alt: Mank)

Best International Feature Film: Another Round

(alt: Quo Vadis, Aida?)

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher

(alt: Time)

Best Animated Feature: Soul

(alt: Wolfwalkers)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

(alt: The Father)

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

(alt: The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

(alt: Paul Raci - Sound of Metal)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Yuh-jung Youn - Minari

(alt: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

Best Actor in Leading Role: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

(alt: Anthony Hopkins - The Father0

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

(alt: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman)

Best Directing: Chloe Zhao - Nomadland

(alt: Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman)

Best Picture: Nomadland

(alt: The Trial of the Chicago 7)