92nd Oscar Dix

Announcing Monday morning at 8:18AM Eastern by John Cho and Issa Rae.

(Yes, I bet we're getting another fucking power point presentation from some random hotel room. God damn it.)

Anyways...

VISUAL EFFECTS
ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL
AVENGERS: ENDGAME
THE IRISHMAN
THE LION KING
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
alt: 1917
The bakeoff as those plus Gemini Man, Captain Marvel, Terminator: Dark Fate, and (gulp) Cats.

SOUND EDITING
1917
FORD V FERRARI
JOKER
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
alt: The Irishman
This is a real toss up outside of 1917 and Ford.

SOUND MIXING
1917 
FORD V FERRARI
JOKER
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
ROCKETMAN
alt: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Or any of the visual effects contender, maybe Ad Astra? Who knows! I'm kind of shocked when I get 5/5 in the sound categories.

MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"INTO THE UNKNOWN" - FROZEN 2
"STAND UP" - HARRIET
"SPIRIT" - THE LION KING
"I'M GONNA LOVE ME AGAIN" - ROCKETMAN
"GLASGOW" - WILD ROSE
alt: "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough
Never underestimate Diane Warren. I'm so worried "Glasgow" is one of those internet-only things.

MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
1917
JOKER
LITTLE WOMEN
MARRIAGE STORY
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
alt: Ford V Ferrari
I think category is due for a surprise.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BOMBSHELL
JOKER
JUDY
MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL
ROCKETMAN
alt: Once Upon a Time In Hollywood

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917
THE IRISHMAN
JOJO RABBIT
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE
alt: Joker

COSTUME DESIGN
DOLEMITE IS MY NAME
JOJO RABBIT
LITTLE WOMEN
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
ROCKETMAN
alt: The Irishman

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
FORD V FERRARI
THE IRISHMAN
JOKER
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
alt: The Lighthouse
This is the ASC lineup, and it's rare that it matches Oscar 5/5.

FILM EDITING
FORD V FERRARI
THE IRISHMAN
JOJO RABBIT
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE
alt: Joker
1917 will probably be another Birdman.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
AMERICAN FACTORY
APOLLO 11
FOR SAMA
HONEYLAND
ONE CHILD NATION
alt: The Cave

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
ATLANTICS
CORPUS CHRISTI
LES MISERABLES
PAIN AND GLORY
PARASITE
alt: Those Who Remained
I originally had "Foreign Language Film" until I forgot they changed the name of the category.

ANIMATED FEATURE
FROZEN 2
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD
KLAUS
MISSING LINK
TOY STORY 4
alt: I Lost My Body

And the top 8...

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE IRISHMAN
JOJO RABBIT
JOKER
LITTLE WOMEN
THE TWO POPES
alt: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Those are pretty much the widely predicted 5. Sad Beautiful Day can't break into the lineup.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE FAREWELL
KNIVES OUT
MARRIAGE STORY
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE
alt: Uncut Gems
Gems might be peaking at the right time to make it.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
TOM HANKS - A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
ANTHONY HOPKINS - THE TWO POPES
AL PACINO - THE IRISHMAN
JOE PESCI - THE IRISHMAN
BRAD PITT - A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
alt: Song Kang Ho - Parasite
Not sold on Hopkins, but I'm not quite brave enough to predict Song.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
LAURA DERN - MARRIAGE STORY
SCARLETT JOHANSSON - JOJO RABBIT
JENNIFER LOPEZ - HUSTLERS
FLORENCE PUGH - LITTLE WOMEN
MARGOT ROBBIE - BOMBSHELL
alt: Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell
I think almost everyone has now settled on this lineup. It just makes the most senese. Which probably means it won't happen. If Margot make it for Hollywood instead, that's a sure sign it's winning Picture.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
LEONARDO DICAPRIO - ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
ADAM DRIVER - MARRIAGE STORY
TARON EGERTON - ROCKETMAN
JOAQUIN PHOENIX - JOKER
JONATHAN PRYCE - THE TWO POPES
alt: Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
Again, not sold on Popes. I'm more confident in Taron than Jonathan. Lots of people think the big snub of the morning might be Leo. Did Adam Sandler peak at the right time? This category feels like the one that might have the biggest shock of the morning.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
CYNTHIA ERIVO - HARRIET
SCARLETT JOHANSSON - MARRIAGE STORY
SAOIRSE RONAN - LITTLE WOMEN
CHARLIZE THERON - BOMBSHELL
RENEE ZELLWEGER - JUDY
alt: Lupita Nyong'o - Us
I've never really been sold on Awkwafina making it here, but she could. I've had the feeling that Theron might be the big snub of the morning, though it does feel like Erivo's buzz died considerably. Kind of a shock because everyone made it seem like she would campaign aggressively.

DIRECTING
SAM MENDES - 1917
MARTIN SCORSESE - THE IRISHMAN
TODD PHILLIPS - JOKER
QUENTIN TARANTINO - ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
BONG JOON-HO - PARASITE
alt: Taika Waititi - Jojo Rabbit
Friendly reminder that women do exist.

BEST PICTURE
1917
THE IRISHMAN
JOKER 
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE
6. JOJO RABBIT
7. MARRIAGE STORY
8. LITTLE WOMEN

9. FORD V FERRARI
10. KNIVES OUT
alt: The Farewell

I'm going with 8. As usual.

Tally:
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood - 11
The Irishman - 9
Joker - 9
1917 - 7
Parasite - 6
Jojo Rabbit - 6
Little Women - 6
Marriage Story - 6
Rocketman - 5
Ford V Ferrari - 4
The Two Popes - 3
Bombshell - 3
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker - 3