BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: DEKALB ELEMENTARY
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: DEAR BASKETBALL
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: HEROIN(E)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
A FANTASTIC WOMAN - THE INSULT - LOVELESS - ON BODY AND SOUL - THE SQUARE
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL - FACES PLACES - ICARUS - LAST MEN IN ALEPPO - STRONG ISLAND
Will Win: Faces Places
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
THE BOSS BABY - THE BREADWINNER - COCO - FERDINAND - LOVING VINCENT
Will Win: Coco
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
BLADE RUNNER 2049 - GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY: VOL. 2 - KONG: SKULL ISLAND - STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI - WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
This is a tough battle between Apes and 2049, but they haven't rewarded any of the other new Apes series.
BEST SOUND EDITING:
BABY DRIVER - BLADE RUNNER 2049 - DUNKIRK - THE SHAPE OF WATER - STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
Will Win: Dunkirk
Baby Driver will put up a good fight in both of these categories.
BEST SOUND MIXING:
BABY DRIVER - BLADE RUNNER 2049 - DUNKIRK - THE SHAPE OF WATER - STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
Will Win: Dunkirk
BEST MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG:
"MYSTERY OF LOVE" - CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
"REMEMBER ME" - COCO
"THIS IS ME" - THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
"STAND UP FOR SOMETHING" - MARSHALL
"MIGHTY RIVER" - MUDBOUND
Will Win: I think "This Is Me" is the clear winner here, but some think this is a close race.
BEST MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE:
DUNKIRK - PHANTOM THREAD - THE SHAPE OF WATER - STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Will Win: The Shape of Water
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
DARKEST HOUR - VICTORIA AND ABDUL - WONDER
Will Win: Darkest Hour
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST - BLADE RUNNER 2049 - DARKEST HOUR - DUNKIRK - THE SHAPE OF WATER
Will Win: Blade Runner has a small shot, but this is another tech victory for The Shape of Water.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST - DARKEST HOUR - PHANTOM THREAD - THE SHAPE OF WATER - VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Will Win: Beauty and Water could, but Phantom Thread's storyline will give it the edge.
BEST FILM EDITING:
BABY DRIVER - DUNKIRK - I, TONYA - THE SHAPE OF WATER - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Will Win: Multiple storylines + war = Dunkirk. Like the sound categories, Baby Driver has a chance.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
BLADE RUNNER 2049 - DARKEST HOUR - DUNKIRK - MUDBOUND - THE SHAPE OF WATER
Will Win: The Academy isn't really going to let Deakins go 0 for 14, are they? Blade Runner 2049 wins, but Shape of Water could.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME - THE DISASTER ARTIST - LOGAN - MOLLY'S GAME - MUDBOUND
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
THE BIG SICK - GET OUT - LADY BIRD - THE SHAPE OF WATER - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Will Win: Definitely the category to watch. If Get Out does pull off a victory here, it has a chance at taking Best Picture. Yet, I'm predicting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
WILLEM DAFOE - THE FLORIDA PROJECT
WOODY HARRELSON - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
RICHARD JENKINS - THE SHAPE OF WATER
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
SAM ROCKWELL - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Will Win: Rockwell
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
MARY J. BLIGE - MUDBOUND
ALLISON JANNEY - I, TONYA
LESLEY MANVILLE - PHANTOM THREAD
LAURIE METCALF - LADY BIRD
OCTAVIA SPENCER - THE SHAPE OF WATER
Will Win: Janney
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET - CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - PHANTOM THREAD
DANIEL KALUUYA - GET OUT
GARY OLDMAN - DARKEST HOUR
DENZEL WASHINGTON - ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.
Will Win: Oldman
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
SALLY HAWKINS - THE SHAPE OF WATER
FRANCES MCDORMAND - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
MARGOT ROBBIE - I, TONYA
SAOIRSE RONAN - LADY BIRD
MERYL STREEP - THE POST
Will Win: McDormand
BEST DIRECTING:
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN - DUNKIRK
JORDAN PEELE - GET OUT
GRETA GERWIG - LADY BIRD
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON - PHANTOM THREAD
GUILLERMO DEL TORO - THE SHAPE OF WATER
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro
BEST PICTURE:
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME - DARKEST HOUR - DUNKIRK - GET OUT - LADY BIRD - PHANTOM THREAD - THE POST - THE SHAPE OF WATER - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
So, almost every film has to overcome some statistical obstacle to win. Three Billboards wasn't nominated for Directing. Shape of Water and Dunkirk didn't get a SAG Ensemble nom. Get Out and Lady Bird don't have editing nominations. The remaining 4 films have no chance at all. Three Billboards has been hugely popular and had no trouble winning big awards despite vocal criticisms. The divisive nature of that film will hurt it on a preferential ballot. The Shape of Water is probably next in line, but both Get Out and Lady Bird could do well on a preferential ballot. Lady Bird pretty much has no chance at any other wins.
Get Out has an outside shot, Shape of Water could win, but I'm sticking with Three Billboards to take the top prize.
OSCAR 90TH DIX:
(TL, DR)
PICTURE: THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
(alt: Shape of Water)
DIRECTING: GUILLERMO DEL TORO - THE SHAPE OF WATER
(alt: Jordan Peele - Get Out)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: GARY OLDMAN - DARKEST HOUR
(alt: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name)
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: FRANCES MCDORMAND - THREE BILLBOARDS
(alt: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water)
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: SAM ROCKWELL - THREE BILLBOARDS
(alt: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: ALLISON JANNEY - I, TONYA
(alt: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
(alt: Get Out)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
(alt: Mudbound)
FILM EDITING: DUNKIRK
(alt: Baby Driver)
CINEMATOGRAPHY: BLADE RUNNER 2049
(alt: The Shape of Water)
COSTUME DESIGN: PHANTOM THREAD
(alt: The Shape of Water)
PRODUCTION DESIGN: THE SHAPE OF WATER
(alt: Blade Runner 2049)
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: DARKEST HOUR
(alt: Wonder)
ORIGINAL SCORE: THE SHAPE OF WATER
(alt: Phantom Thread)
ORIGINAL SONG: "THIS IS ME" - THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
(alt: "Remember Me" - Coco)
SOUND MIXING: DUNKIRK
(alt: Baby Driver)
SOUND EDITING: DUNKIRK
(alt: Baby Driver)
VISUAL EFFECTS: BLADE RUNNER 2049
(alt: War For the Planet of the Apes)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A FANTASTIC WOMAN
(alt: The Insult)
ANIMATED FEATURE: COCO
(alt: The Breadwinner)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: FACES PLACES
(alt: Last Men In Aleppo)
LIVE ACTION SHORT: DEKALB ELEMENTARY
(alt: The Silent Child)
ANIMATED SHORT: DEAR BASKETBALL
(alt: Garden Party)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: HEROIN(E)
(alt: Edith + Eddie)
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