Box: Panther is stronger than a Sparrow

1. Black Panther - $60m / $495m / $625m
2. Red Sparrow - $19m / $19m / $48m
3. Death Wish - $13m / $13m / $35m
4. Game Night - $11m / $33.5m / $56m
5. Peter Rabbit - $9.5m / $83.5m / $106m
6. Annihilation - $6m / $20.5m / $33m
7. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $4m / $392.5m / $405m
8. Fifty Shades Freed - $3m / $95m / $102m
9. The Greatest Showman - $2.5m / $164.5m / $170m
10. Every Day - $2m / $5.5m / $9m

Jennifer Lawrence will fare slightly better than mother! with Red Sparrow. Reviews suggest audiences might not like it. The Bruce Willis remake Death Wish should do okay. I doubt it cost much, even if he hasn't had a legitimate hit in a long while. Black Panther in an absolute beast and $600m domestic is locked. Depending on its drop this weekend, $700m+ might be in play.

***Three Billboards - $1m / $51.7m
***The Shape of Water - $1m / $57m
***Phantom Thread - $1m / $20.5m / $23m
***The Post - $1m / $80.5m / $84m
***Lady Bird - $.7m / $48.2m / $50m
***Darkest Hour - $.6m / $55.3m / $58m
***Call Me By Your Name - $.5m / $16.4m / $18m

These are the Best Picture nominees still in theaters. I've left the totals on Billboards and Water blank because their totals will depend on how much they win. If Three Billboards takes Best Picture, it'll probably get to $56-58m. If not, $54m looks about right. As for Shape of Water, a Best Picture win will probably take it further given its not available for home viewing until 2 more weeks. $65-67m could be in play, with $60-62m if it loses the top prize.

Worth noting: Lady Bird is A24's highest grossing film, adding over $20m to their previous record holder.