BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN SNIPER - THE IMITATION GAME - INHERENT VICE
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING - WHIPLASH
WILL WIN: A three-way race between Sniper, Imitation and Whiplash. Whiplash competed everywhere else in Original, which throws a bit of a wrench into this race. Imitation has one of the strangest runs since I've been following awards. It's a big hit, scored noms everywhere, but has lost almost everything. It's only win so far is at the WGA. I'm just barely giving it the edge over Whiplash, but I'll probably regret it. Sniper wouldn't surprise me either given how strongly its come on over the past month and they might want to give it an above the line win. In the end, I'm not gonna take a risk and predict THE IMITATION GAME.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I haven't seen the nominees in this category that are actually supposed to be good. Looking over the films I loved this year, most of them are original screenplays. One of the only great adapted screenplays I loved was Enemy. And, apparently after looking it up, Obvious Child was adapted. That would be my winner.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BIRDMAN - BOYHOOD - FOXCATCHER
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL - NIGHTCRAWLER
WILL WIN: I'm gonna predict BIRDMAN. Grand Budapest might prevail, and Boyhood winning this would actually be a bit of a shock.
I'D VOTE FOR: Haven't seen Nightcrawler, but my favorite film here is Foxcatcher. I'd probably vote for that or Birdman.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Lego Movie
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
ROBERT DUVALL - THE JUDGE
ETHAN HAWKE - BOYHOOD
EDWARD NORTON - BIRDMAN
MARK RUFFALO - FOXCATCHER
JK SIMMONS - WHIPLASH
WILL WIN: JK SIMMONS.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I've only seen Hawke, Norton and Ruffalo. I enjoyed all of their performances. Several performances I loved from supporting actors this year: Don Johnson in Cold In July, Robert Pattinson in The Rover, and a lot of the men of Pride. I would have been happy to see any of those guys get some love.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
PATRICIA ARQUETTE - BOYHOOD
LAURA DERN - WILD
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY - THE IMITATION GAME
EMMA STONE - BIRDMAN
MERYL STREEP - INTO THE WOODS
WILL WIN: PATRICIA ARQUETTE
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I'm happy Patty is winning, and I've only missed Laura Dern's work in this category. Other deserving actresses: Snowpiercer's Tilda Swinton, Dear White People's Tessa Thompson and Ida's Agata Kulesza.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
STEVE CARELL - FOXCATCHER
BRADLEY COOPER - AMERICAN SNIPER
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH - THE IMITATION GAME
MICHAEL KEATON - BIRDMAN
EDDIE REDMAYNE - THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
WILL WIN: EDDIE REDMAYNE hit every place he needed to win this. So unless Birdman is going over big, Michael will sit it out.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I'll be rooting for Keaton. Jake Gyllenhaal was deserving for Enemy (and apparently Nightcrawler obviously), Jesse Eisenberg in Night Moves and The Double, and Dan Stevens in The Guest. I think Carell is supporting, as Channing Tatum was Foxcatcher's true lead and deserved to be nominated.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
MARION COTILLARD - TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT
FELICITY JONES - THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
JULIANNE MOORE - STILL ALICE
ROSAMUND PIKE - GONE GIRL
REESE WITHERSPOON - WILD
WILL WIN: JULIANNE MOORE
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jenny Fucking Slate for Obvious Child. Damn, this is the lowest number of Best Actress contenders I've seen prior to the show in almost 15 years.
BEST DIRECTING
ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU - BIRDMAN
RICHARD LINKLATER - BOYHOOD
BENNETT MILLER - FOXCATCHER
WES ANDERSON - THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
MORTON TYLDUM - THE IMITATION GAME
WILL WIN: RICHARD LINKLATER, but Alejandro might want to prepare a speech, too.
I'D VOTE FOR: (I've actually seen all of these!) Bennett, actually. The directing of Foxcatcher and his control over the material is easily the film's best aspect.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Ava Duvernay really would have been a wonderful nominee.
BEST PICTURE
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
BOYHOOD
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE IMITATION GAME
SELMA
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
WHIPLASH
WILL WIN: It's right down to the wire on this one. I don't recall a closer Best Picture race, but I do think the preferential ballot works in BOYHOOD's favor the most. But damn, Birdman is close.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Having not seen Whiplash, Selma is my pick. I know a lot of people (myself included) have made a big deal about The Lego Movie getting snubbed in Animated, but I honestly feel it deserved to be a Best Picture nominee.
DARREN'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS - TL, DR EDITION
Best Picture: Boyhood
(alt: Birdman)
Best Directing: Richard Linklater - Boyhood
(alt: Alejandro G. Inarritu - Birdman)
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything)
(alt: Micheal Keaton - Birdman)
Best Actress: Julianne Moore - Still Alice
(alt: Reese Witherspoon - Wild)
Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons - Whiplash
(alt: Edward Norton - Birdman)
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
(alt: Emma Stone - Birdman)
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman
(alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
(alt: Whiplash)
Best Cinematography: Birdman
(alt: Mr. Turner)
Best Film Editing: Boyhood
(alt: Whiplash)
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
(alt: Into the Woods)
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
(alt: Mr. Turner)
Best Makeup/Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
(alt: Guardians of the Galaxy)
Best Sound Mixing: American Sniper
(alt: Whiplash)
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
(alt: Interstellar)
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
(alt: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes)
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
(alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Best Original Song: "Glory" - Selma
(alt: "Everything Is Awesome" - The Lego Movie)
Best Animated Feature: How To Train Your Dragon 2
(alt: Big Hero 6)
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
(alt: Leviathan)
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
(alt: Virunga)
Best Short - Live Action: The Phone Call
(alt: Boogaloo and Graham)
Best Short - Animated: Feast
(alt: The Bigger Picture)
Best Short - Doc: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
(alt: Joanna)
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