BEST SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
12 YEARS A SLAVE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
PHILOMENA
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
WILL WIN: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
I'D VOTE FOR: The Wolf of Wall Street and Before Midnight are the only two that deserve to be recognized, and the latter is my choice.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Short Term 12 and The Spectacular Now are waaaaaay better than some of the amature writing here.
BEST SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL
AMERICAN HUSTLE
BLUE JASMINE
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
HER
NEBRASKA
WILL WIN: A very tight race between Her and American Hustle. I expect AMERICAN HUSTLE to pull it off and this be its lone win.
I'D VOTE FOR: Her
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Nicole Holofcener remains nomination-less, but probably came closest to scoring her first nomination this year for Enough Said.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
BARKHAD ABDI as Muse in CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
BRADLEY COOPER as Richie DiMaso in AMERICAN HUSTLE
MICHAEL FASSBENDER as Edwin Epps in 12 YEARS A SLAVE
JONAH HILL as Donnie Azoff in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
JARED LETO as Rayon in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
HISTORY: Abdi, Fassbender and Leto are on their first nominations. Cooper was nominated last year in Leading for Silver Linings Playbook. Hill was nominated in this category two years ago for Moneyball.
WILL WIN: JARED LETO
I'D VOTE FOR: Jared Leto
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Even his haters would be hard pressed to deny James Franco's batshit crazy performance in Spring Breakers. Matthew Goode was creepy perfection as Stoker's disturbing uncle. Short Term 12's John Gallagher Jr and Keith Stanfield turns should have been noticed, too.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
SALLY HAWKINS as Ginger in BLUE JASMINE
JENNIFER LAWRENCE as Roslyn Rosenfeld in AMERICAN HUSTLE
LUPITA NYONG'O as Patsey in 12 YEARS A SLAVE
JULIA ROBERTS as Barbara Weston in AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
JUNE SQUIBB as Kate Grant in NEBRASKA
HISTORY: Hawkins, Nyong'o and Squibb are on their first nominations. This is Lawrence's third nomination. She won last year in Leading for Silver Linings Playbook and was nominated prior in that category for Winter's Bone. Roberts won Leading for 2000's Erin Brockovich and was nominated before in leading for Pretty Woman and in supporting for Steel Magnolias.
WILL WIN: It'll be a photo finish between Lupita and Jennifer, but I think Lawrence's win last year means LUPITA NYONG'O will take it. Though I'm 100% certain Jennifer will win again in the next decade.
I'D VOTE FOR: I don't really love any of these performances. Nyong'o cries a lot, but there's not much of a character there and I agree with the complaints that she's not even the best supporting actress in her own film. (Hi, Sarah Paulson!) Squibb is entertaining enough, it's a cute performance but not much more. I very much liked Jennifer in Hustle, but I also really liked two similar performances from this year. (More on that later.) I was ready to let Julia be my choice here until that god awful "Eat the fish, bitch!" scene. So, by process of elimination, that leaves Sally Hawkins last woman standing. She deserved to win in 2008 for Happy-Go-Lucky and wasn't even nominated. Better late than never.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Scene-stealing Long Island babes ran amock this year in the form of Lawrence, Wolf of Wall Street's Margot Robbie and Don Jon's Scarlett Johansson. I enjoyed all three. Kaitlyn Dever delivered an emotional roller coaster in Short Term 12, while Emma Watson had the difficult task of making a walking caricature resemble a human in The Bling Ring. Amy Adams could just as well be recognized for her work in Her. But my favorite in this category this year belonged to Rachel McAdams doing another spot-on turn as a bitch in Passion, easily her best work since her iconic Regina George in Mean Girls.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
CHRISTIAN BALE as Irving Rosenfeld in AMERICAN HUSTLE
BRUCE DERN as Woody Grant in NEBRASKA
LEONARDO DICAPRIO as Jordan Belfort in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
CHIWETEL EJIOFOR as Solomon Northup in 12 YEARS A SLAVE
MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY as Ron Woodroof in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
HISTORY: McConaughey and Ejiofor are on their first noms. Bale won previously in Supporting for 2010's The Fighter. Dern was nominated in supporting for 1978's Coming Home. DiCaprio is on his fourth nomination, previously nominated in supporting for What's Eating Gilbert Grape and in leading for The Aviator and Blood Diamond.
WILL WIN: Alright alright alright MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY, just keep living bro.
I'D VOTE FOR: Leonardo DiCaprio
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I suspect it's only a matter of time before Miles Teller gets invited to the Dolby, as his charismatic yet sad turn in The Spectacular Now illustrates.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
AMY ADAMS as Sidney Presser in AMERICAN HUSTLE
CATE BLANCHETT as Jasmine French in BLUE JASMINE
SANDRA BULLOCK as Dr. Ryan Stone
JUDI DENCH as Philomena Lee in PHILOMENA
MERYL STREEP as Violet Weston in AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
HISTORY: (take a deep breath) The women in this category have 38 Oscar nominations and 6 wins between them. They've also won just about every other type of award in existence. Amy Adams is on her fifth Oscar nomination, all of her previous nominations were in supporting. Blanchett is on her sixth nomination, winning supporting for her performance as Katharine Hepburn in 2004's The Aviator. (She holds the record for being the only person to win an Oscar for playing an Oscar-winner.) Bullock won Leading for 2009's The Blind Side. Dench won supporting for 1998's Shakespeare In Love, and this is her seventh nomination. Meryl Streep is on her 18th nomination and won 3 of those: 2 leading for 1982's Sophie's Choice and 2011's The Iron Lady and one supporting for 1979's Kramer Vs. Kramer.
WILL WIN: CATE BLANCHETT will be the most deserving winner in this category since Marion Cotillard in La Vie in Rose back in 2007....
I'D VOTE FOR: ...but Amy Adams gave my favorite performance of the year in American Hustle. Hang on, girl, it'll be your turn soon enough!
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: There was a plethora of great performances by actresses this year, which makes it more embarassing that the Academy went with Streep in her very worst performance ever and an okay Dench playing the stock Judi Dench character. Short Term 12's Brie Larson, Enough Said's Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Before Midnight's Julie Delpy, The Spectacular Now's Shailene Woodley and France Ha's Greta Gerwig all gave worthy performances.
BEST DIRECTING:
STEVE MCQUEEN - 12 YEARS A SLAVE
DAVID O. RUSSELL - AMERICAN HUSTLE
ALFONSO CUARON - GRAVITY
ALEXANDER PAYNE - NEBRASKA
MARTIN SCORSESE - THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
HISTORY: McQueen and Cuaron are on their first directing nominations. Russell has been nominated here twice before for The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook. Payne also has two previous nominations in directing for Sideways and The Descenants. Scorsese is on his eighth nomination in this category, and won for 2006's The Departed. All of these men have been nominated in other categories, either this year or in the past. Payne has two Screenplay Oscars.
WILL WIN: ALFONSO CUARON
I'D VOTE FOR: Alfonso Cuaron
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Harmony Korine for Spring Breakers
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