Lots of close races this year!
All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - The Batman - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Top Gun: Maverick
James Cameron's sequel AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER will prevail easily over Tom Cruise's sequel. Because it's 1997, apparently.
SOUND:
All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - The Batman - Elvis - Top Gun: Maverick
TOP GUN: MAVERICK takes the trophy over a strong category.
"Applause" - Tell It Like a Woman
"Hold My Hand" - Top Gun: Maverick
"Lift Me Up" - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Naatu Naatu" - RRR
"This Is A Life" - Everything Everywhere All At Once
While Gaga and Rihanna offer more star power, the RRR number has the most buzz.
ORIGINAL SCORE:
All Quiet on the Western Front - Babylon - The Banshees of Inisherin - Everything Everywhere All At Once - The Fabelmans
Babylon being a flop will hurt it, while this could be the place to reward Fabelmans. ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT and its Nolan-esque score will fend both of them off.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
All Quiet on the Western Front - The Batman - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Elvis - The Whale
It's between the Best Actor contenders, and this category might be an indicator of who takes home that Oscar: ELVIS.
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - Babylon - Elvis - The Fabelmans
I think everything but The Fabelmans has a slight shot, but BABYLON will prevail over Elvis.
COSTUME DESIGN:
Babylon - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Elvis - Everything Everywhere All At Once - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
There's valid reasons to pick any of these, but ELVIS probably takes it.
FILM EDITING:
The Banshees of Inisherin - Elvis - Everything Everywhere All At Once - TÁR - Top Gun: Maverick
The Cruise sequel could pull it off, but editing being to integral to the story will help EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE win.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
All Quiet on the Western Front - Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths - Elvis - Empire of Light - TÁR
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT will silence Elvis. (Har har!) (Wait, this is a visual category. That joke doesn't make sense.)
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
All Quiet on the Western Front - Argentina, 1985 - Close - E.O. - The Quiet Girl
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT wins.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
All That Breathes - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - Fire of Love - A House Made of Splinters - Navalny
NAVALNY takes it, but I think everything except Splinters has a chance.
ANIMATED FEATURE:
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - Marcel the Shell With Shoes On - Puss In Boots: The Last Wish - The Sea Beast - Turning Red
Another Oscar on the mantel for GUILLERMO DEL TORO'S PINOCCHIO.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
All Quiet on the Western Front - Glass Onion - Living - Top Gun: Maverick - Women Talking
A crazy weak lineup, it's between the German film and the Mennonite drama. I know it might just be wishful thinking of Sarah Polley being an Oscar winner, but I'll (just barely) say WOMEN TALKING.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
The Banshees of Inisherin - Everything Everywhere All At Once - The Fabelmans - TÁR - Triangle of Sadness
I thought Banshees would put up more of a fight, but it looks like EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE will win.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Despite a BAFTA detour, KE HUY QUAN has won everything else and that will include Oscar night.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau - The Whale
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
I'd obviously love to see the final tallies in all categories, but I'd really love to see this one. I kinda think Curtis was a bit of a SAG lifetime achievement thing, but why wouldn't they do that for Bassett? Condon won BAFTA, which the last time this category was so split (2007!) proved to be the tell. So KERRY CONDON it fecking is. Plus, she'll be a way to reward the film other than a possible screenplay upset.
LEADING ACTOR:
Austin Butler - Elvis
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Paul Mescal - Aftersun
Bill Nighy - Living
Fraser and Butler have been duking it out all season, but the last non-Best Picture nominee to win here was Jeff Bridges 13 years ago. AUSTIN BUTLER can go back to your normal voice.
LEADING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett - TÁR
Ana de Armas - Blonde
Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Release the vote totals! That way, people can stop blaming Riseborough for knocking out two WOC, as it was most likely Ana in 5th. All right, internet, you convinced me MICHELLE YEOH is winning. You better be fucking right. I don't want to sit through a 3rd white actress winning a 3rd Oscar in the span of 11 years.
DIRECTING:
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Sheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Todd Field - TÁR
Ruben Östlund - Triangle of Sadness
The DANIELS win. It helps that outside of Spielberg taking the Globe for a movie that has underperformed most of the season, there's been no consensus #2. And BAFTA went to someone not nominated here.
BEST PICTURE:
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT - AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER - THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN - ELVIS - EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE - THE FABELMANS - TÁR - TOP GUN: MAVERICK - TRIANGLE OF SADNESS - WOMEN TALKING
EEAAO takes it.
I'm glad this season is almost over because I'm sick of looking up how to do the accent mark over the a in TÁR.
DARREN'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS (TL,DR EDITION)
Best Documentary - Short Subject: The Elephant Whisperers
(alt: Stranger at the Gate)
Best Short Film - Animated: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox & the Horse
(alt: My Year of Dicks)
Best Short Film - Live Action: Le Pupille
(alt: An Irish Goodbye)
Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
(alt: Top Gun: Maverick)
Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
(alt: All Quiet on the Western Front)
Best Music - Original Song: "Naatu Naatu" - RRR
(alt: "Hold My Hand" - Top Gun: Maverick)
Best Music - Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front
(alt: The Fabelmans)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis
(alt: The Whale)
Best Production Design: Babylon
(alt: Elvis)
Best Costume Design: Elvis
(alt: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Best Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All At Once
(alt: Top Gun: Maverick)
Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
(alt: Elvis)
Best International Feature Film: All Quiet on the Western Front
(alt: Argentina, 1985)
Best Documentary Feature: Navalny
(alt: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed)
Best Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
(alt: Puss In Boots: The Last Wish)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking
(alt: All Quiet on the Western Front)
Best Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once
(alt: The Banshees of Inisherin)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
(alt: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
(alt: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Austin Butler - Elvis
(alt: Brendan Fraser - The Whale)
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
(alt: Cate Blanchett - TÁR)
Best Directing: The Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
(alt: Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans)
Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
(alt: All Quiet on the Western Front)
Tally:
EEAAO - 6
All Quiet on the Western Front - 3
Elvis - 3
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