Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Box: This is not a drill, people: NEVE CAMPBELL IS IN A MOVIE!!!!

1. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - $45m / $45m / $150m
2. Skyscraper - $35m / $35m / $110m
3. Ant Man and the Wasp - $32m / $137m / $210m
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $15m / $362m / $400m
5. The Incredibles 2 - $14m / $533m / $570m
6. The First Purge - $8m / $48m / $66m
7. Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $3.5m / $42.5m / $49m
**Uncle Drew - $3.5m / $37m / $44m
**Sorry To Bother You - $3.5m / $4.5m / $15m
10. Ocean's 8 - $3m / $132m / $137m

2 openers and Sorry To Bother You hits the wide threshold. I initially thought both HT3 and Skyscraper were both easily doing $40m+, but most predictions and tracking are lighter for Skyscraper. The previous HT films have both surprised and over performed, but they were both fall releases. Shifting seasons for franchises can often result in lighter performances than expected. STBY did very well in limited last weekend and will hit 800+ theaters this weekend. Leave No Trace and Three Identical Strangers have also done well in limited. Seems like the rare time where the box-office - both multiplex and arthouse - is strong. Hopefully it stays that way throughout the rest of the summer.

Monday, July 9, 2018

Trailer: The Favourite

Oscar winners Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz and soon-to-be Oscar nominee/winner Olivia Colman star in this dark comedy. This looks very entertaining and could be a mainstream breakout for Yorgos Lathimos.

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Box: Gonna need some RAID

1. Ant Man and the Wasp - $75m / $75m / $210m
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $33m / $340m / $415m
3. The Incredibles 2 - $26m / $503m / $570m
4. The First Purge - $19m / $33m / $56m
5. Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $8m / $36.5m / $56m
**Unlce Drew - $8m / $32m / $50m
7. Ocean's 8 - $5m / $126.5m / $138m
8. Tag - $3.5m / $49m / $56m
9. Won't You Be My Neighbor - $2.5m / $12m / $20m
10. Deadpool 2 - $2m / $315m / $319m

Ant Man and the Wasp opens Friday, while The First Purge opens today. Almost every Marvel sequel has out-grossed its predecessor, so Wasp should see the same fate. On the other hand, The First Purge will be the first Purge movie to not out-gross the last. Legs on the holdovers continue to be strong. Won't You Be My Neighbor is on its way to a higher gross than RBG. A great year for docs!

ETA: Whitney will be released in 450+ locations, which might be enough to make the top 10. I'll predict it to do $2m for the 3-day.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Trailer: Support the Girls

It's a long shot, but I'd love an awards run for Regina Hall. She looks terrific in this, and Haley Lu Richardson continues to impress.

Trailer: Mandy


This looks insane and I need it NOW.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Box: Sicario 3: Donde está Emily Blunt? Emily Blunt está en el aeropuerto.

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $65m / $268m / $415m
2. The Incredibles 2 - $45m / $435m / $550m
3. Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $15m / $15m / $42m
4. Uncle Drew - $14m / $14m / $40m
5. Ocean's 8 - $6.5m / $112.5m / $128m
6. Tag - $4.5m / $39.5m / $50m
7. Deadpool 2 - $3m / $309.5m / $317m
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $2.5m / $207m / $212m
9. Won't You Be My Neighbor - $2m / $7m / $15m
**Hereditary - $2m / $39m / $42m

Two openers. Sicario didn't make a huge amount in its theatrical run, but did quite well in home viewing. However, this won't be another John Wick franchise. The second film should still come close to the gross of the first one. Uncle Drew should do okay given the lack of comedies in the marketplace. This feels like a quiet weekend for being right in the middle of the summer movie season, but I do like this 2-movies-a-week thing going for June and most of July.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Box: Bryce Dallas Howard = Jurassica Chastain. Still funny three years later.

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $135m / $135m / $375m
2. The Incredibles 2 - $98m / $365m / $600m
3. Ocean's 8 - $10.5m / $98.5m / $120m
4. Tag - $8m / $30m / $48m
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $5.5m / $203m / $216m
6. Deadpool 2 - $5m / $303.5m / $316m
7. Hereditary - $3.5m / $34.5m / $40m
8. Superfly - $3m / $16m / $22m
**Avengers: Infinity War - $3m / $670m / $678m
10. Won't You Be My Neighbor - $1.5m / $3.5m / $15m

The Incredibles 2 really exploded last weekend, so much so that it might put a dent in Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom instead of the other way around. I'm not sure if 2 films have ever grossed $100m+ the same weekend. I know Jurassic World and Inside Out both did $90m+ 3 years ago. Dinos vs. Pixar: Round 2.

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Trailers: "The Nun" & "Dumbo"

Latest in The Conjuring universe, I'm not really sure why they did the WATCH UNTIL THE END when what they wanted you to see happens before. Closer to a teaser than a full trailer, this was moved out of summer into the It slot. Demian Bichir and Taissa Farmiga star. Why would you cast her and NOT have her play the young Lorraine Warren?

Hey, here's a Tim Burton film that actually looks good. Remember when he used to make good movies that didn't have the look and feel of self parody? Burton reteams with Michael Keaton, Eva Green and Danny DeVito for this live action version of the Disney classic.

Box: Not it.

1. The Incredibles 2 - $140m / $140m / $450m
2. Ocean's 8 - $20m / $79.5m / $125m
3. Tag - $13m / $13m / $40m
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $8m / $191.5m / $212m
5. Deadpool 2 - $7.5m / $293m / $312m
6. Hereditary - $6m / $25.5m / $36m
**Superfly - $6m / $7.5m / $16m
8. Avengers: Infinity War - $3.5m / $662m / $672m
9. Book Club - $3m / $63m / $70m
10. Adrift - $2.5m / $27m / $32m

Pixar's The Incredibles 2 will make a good run for 2nd highest grossing movie of the summer. Depends on how huge Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is. Also opening is Tag, which I thought had great reactions from test screenings early in the year. No reviews as of yet, so that's odd. Game Night it won't be. Superfly opened today and apparently is doing poorly, though it could always take off over the weekend. Hereditary got a D+ from Cinemascore last weekend, but the great reviews might still be able to carry it. Book Club continues to impress with great weekdays. There's also a Bollywood movie, Race 3, opening this weekend in 300+ theaters. It could make the top 10 before falling off and never being heard from again.

Friday, June 8, 2018

Trailer: First Man

Concluding trailer week is the space adventure from Oscar-winner Damien Chazelle. Looks very exciting and will probably be a big Oscar player.

Trailer: Halloween


Thursday, June 7, 2018

Trailer: "The Girl In the Spider's Web", "Serenity", "Bad Times at the El Royale"

Up first is the new film in the Lisbeth Salander saga, with Claire Foy taking over for Rooney Mara. Wow, people are not here for Mara being replaced, which completely baffles me. Mara has grown as an actress over the years but I remain completely baffled by the acclaim and awards run that performance in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo generated. She was good, but to me there's no reason she should have gotten the part over the dozen or two actresses who were in the running for the part. I think this looks fine. It looks dark and pulpy and Foy looks good. All of that said, it's probably too late for this film to generate much interest.

Hey, remember those rumors about Matthew McConaughey hating working with Anne Hathaway on Interstellar? Well, I guess he "hated" it so much he went and did another movie with her. The media is still relentless with the Hathahate. So pathetic. Anyways, for some reason I thought this was a romantic drama. Turns out its a noirish thriller with Hathaway in the femme fatale role. I'm here for it. Wow, Diane Lane still looks amazing. Love her!

Last up for today is The Cabin in the Woods' Drew Goddard's all-star thriller. Can't go wrong with your main image being a shirtless Hemsworth. Much like Cabin, this looks like a fun genre bender.

Trailers: "Bumblebee", "The LEGO Movie 2" and "A Star Is Born"

I'm shocked at how well done this trailer is. I'm sure the film will be the typical Michael Bay-produced garbage, but the trailer is nearly perfect and that gag at the end actually made me laugh.  That said, I still want Hailee to do more mature stuff now. She's got the talent.

Follow-up to 2014's megahit, I like the Mad Max feel they are going for with this. I hope the recent LEGO movies won't hurt this one.

Lastly is Bradley Cooper's first outing as a director, the remake of A Star Is Born. Rumors are swirling that this is really great, and I love the Crazy Heart feel it has. Will Cooper and Gaga score more Oscar nominations?

Box: I would like to request an all male reboot of Showgirls.

1. Ocean's Eight - $36m / $36m / $120m
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $13m / $174m / $205m
3. Deadpool 2 - $12m / $276.5m / $305m
4. Hereditary - $9m / $9m / $26m
5. Hotel Artemis - $7m / $7m / $19m
6. Adrift - $6m / $22.5m / $36m
7. Avengers: Infinity War - $5.5m / $653m / $665m
8. Book Club - $4m / $56.5m / $68m
9. Upgrade - $2.5m / $9m / $13m
10. Life of the Party - $2m / $50m / $53m

Three openers, and all are (currently) frest on RT. Ocean's Eight feels a little light in the buzz department so it probably won't break out. Because of Bullock's star power, the film was probably going to be more about the legs than the opening. Hereditary has great reviews and awards buzz for Toni Collette, but many are questioning how well mainstream audiences will respond to it given A24's previous acclaimed genre forays (The Witch, It Comes at Night) were met with terrible Cinemascores. The film's performance is one big question mark. The remaining opener is the star studded Hotel Artemis. I'm not even sure what the studio releasing it is, but the film will be lucky to make double digits this weekend. Solo will limp across the $200m mark, while Book Club continues to show its legs. Opening in limited this weekend is the doc Won't You Be My Neighbor?, which should surpass RBG as the year's biggest documentary.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Trailers: "Suspiria", "Widows" and "White Boy Rick"

This week will feature a long list of trailer debuts. Here is the first batch:

First up is the long anticipated remake of Suspiria. Hollywood has been trying to remake this film since I've been following movie news. I think the first stab was in 1997 with Sharon Stone involved. At one point, David Gordon Green was going to direct and Isabelle Furhman, Isabelle Huppert and Janet McTeer were on board. Natalie Portman apparently tried to produce her own version. At long last, here it is from director Luca Guadignino (Call Me By Your Name) and starring Dakota Johnson and Tilda Swinton. This is significantly colder and more classically 70's looking than the colorful original.

Next up is the star-studded Widows, from director Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave). Viola Davis leads this very fun looking heist movie. They obviously wanted this trailer out in time for Ocean's 8.

Last up is White Boy Rick. It kind of looks like a white trash version of American Hustle. Great cast and I think this surprisingly might be my favorite of this batch of trailers.

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Box: Is Logan Marshall-Green the Tom Hardy Upgrade or Vice Versa?

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $38m / $157m / $230m
2. Deadpool 2 - $18m / $248m / $285m
3. Adrift - $11m / $11m / $35m
4. Avengers: Infinity War - $9m / $641m / $660m
5. Action Point - $8m / $8m / $23m
6. Book Club - $7m / $46.5m / $65m
7. Upgrade - $3.5m / $3.5m / $10m
8. Life of the Party - $3m / $45.5m / $52m
9. Breaking In - $2.5m / $41m / $46m
10. Show Dogs - $2m / $14.5m / $18m

Solo disappointed last weekend. Deadpool 2 is well behind the first. Thank goodness for Book Club and RBG! Senior ladies saving the summer! This is the rare summer weekend where 3 original films open, so of course none of them are going anywhere. At least the next several weekends look promising. The Shailene Woodley-Sam Claflin Adrift will be the only opener with any potential, though I think it would have done better with a slot deeper in the summer. Action Point seems to have very light marketing and awareness despite the success of the Jackass films and Bad Grandpa. Upgrade had good reviews out of SXSW but its theater count is kind of low and marketing seems light.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Box: Alden's Solo Movie

3-day / Total So Far / Projected Final

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $120m / $120m / $340m
2. Deadpool 2 - $53m / $219m / $325m
3. Avengers: Infinity War - $15m / $620m / $660m
4. Book Club - $8m / $30m / $54m
5. Life of the Party - $4m / $38m / $48m
6. Breaking In - $3.5m / $35m / $44m
**Show Dogs - $3.5m / $11m / $20m
8. Overboard - $2.5m / $41m / $47m
**A Quiet Place - $2.5m / $180m / $187m
10. RBG - $1m / $5.5m / $10m

The Han Solo spinoff is the only opener this Memorial Day weekend. It feels like an old Memorial Day opener, back when the slot was prime box-office real estate. Decent if unspectacular reviews will help only a little, so the studio better hope audiences like it. Among the newest Star Wars films, it'll be the lowest grossing.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Box: Summer Movie Box-Office Superstar Ruth Bader Ginsburg

1. Deadpool 2 - $139m / $139m / $335m
2. Avengers: Infinity War - $26m / $592m / $650m
3. Book Club - $13m / $13m / $50m
4. Life of the Party - $7m / $30.5m / $45m
5. Breaking In - $6.5m / $29m / $44m
6. Overboard - $4.5m / $37m / $48m
7. Show Dogs - $4m / $4m / $12m
8. A Quiet Place - $3.5m / $175.5m / $185m
9. Rampage - $1.5m / $92.5m / $96m
**RBG - $1.5m / $4m / $10m

Deadpool 2 arrives with the next $100m+ opener of the summer. I think it'll slightly out-open the first but finish just below it. Aiming for a different audience, Book Club also opens. There's a good deal of films aimed at older women this summer, surprisingly. Life of the Party and Breaking In will be front-loaded like Snatched last year, so the senior quarter should be in the clear. As for Show Dogs, it's getting a huge theater count and the family market is dire. I haven't seen any ads for it, though. Lastly, the big surprise of last weekend was RBG making the top 10. It's been doing great so far and should continue. Perhaps enough to become Magnolia's highest grossing film ever. The Wim Wenders doc Pope Francis: A Man Of His Word opens in 350+ theaters. It might make the top 10 if interest is there.