Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Box: Is It here yet?

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard - $17m / $17m / $60m
2. Annabelle: Creation - $16m / $65m / $95m
3. Logan Lucky - $10m / $10m / $33m
4. Dunkirk - $7m / $165.5m / $185m
5. The Nut Job 2 - $5m / $18m / $32m
6. Girls Trip - $4m / $104m / $116m
**Spider-Man: Homecoming - $4m / $314m / $326m
8. The Dark Tower - $3.5m / $41.5m / $49m
**The Emoji Movie - $3.5m / $71m / $79m
**Wind River - $3.5m / $4.5m / $15m

Another dog weekend for the dog days of summer. The Ryan Reynolds-Samuel L. Jackson buddy comedy should do decently. There haven't been a whole lot of comedy hits this summer. In fact, Girls Trip will be the first live action comedy to hit $100m since Bad Moms just under a year ago. Crazy. Not sure why comedies are bombing so hard, as I don't think they are worse that what they usually are. Logan Lucky has terrific reviews, so hopefully it can be leggy. Wind River goes wide this weekend, which is awfully aggressive. It won't quite be another Hell Or High Water, but it should stand out with so few films opening over the next several weeks.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Trailer: Molly's Game

Looks like sleek entertainment that would've done well in the early 90's. Lately, not so much. Aaron Sorkin's directorial debut stars Jessica Chastain (in full Miss Sloane mode).

Monday, August 14, 2017

Trailer: The Florida Project

A24's acclaimed Cannes film could be another Oscar home run for the studio.

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Box: Her? Creation

1. Annabelle: Creation - $30m / $30m / $75m
2. The Nut Job 2 - $11m / $11m / $38m
3. Dunkirk - $10.5m / $152.5m / $180m
4. The Dark Tower - $8m / $35m / $52m
5. Girls Trip - $7m / $97.5m / $116m
6. The Emoji Movie - $6m / $63m / $76m
7. Kidnap - $5.5m / $20m / $33m
**Spider-Man: Homecoming - $5.5m / $306m / $320m
9. Atomic Blonde - $4m / $42m / $50m
10. Despicable Me - $3.5m / $248m / $258m
***Detroit - $3.5m / $14m / $20m
***War For the Planet of the Apes - $3.5m / $137m / $144m
**The Glass Castle - $3m / $3m / $10m

Annabelle: Creation arrives much like last year's Ouija: Origin of Evil, a prequel with signficantly better reviews than the first installment. That, along with a dead month ahead, should be enough to get Annabelle to solid numbers. The Nut Job 2 will take advantage of The Emoji Movie being a critical flop and a thin market for families. I can't seem to find a theater count for The Glass Castle. I've seen everything from 300 to 1500, and have heard it will expand further on the 25th. Based on Moviefone, it currently has about 350 listings, so I'll assume that'll double by Friday. I've maintained that It and Annabelle should have swapped dates. It will do huge business when it opens in a month, but opening now would have allowed summer to go out with a bang.

And Wonder Woman crossed $400m yesterday!

ETA: The Glass Castle is in about 1,400 theaters. I'll go with $4.5m for the 3-day.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Trailer: mother!

Jennifer Lawrence, Javier Bardem, Ed Harris and Michelle Pfeiffer star in Darren Aronofsky's secretive horror movie. Quite a trailer!

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Box: Halle Berry IS Liam Neeson In Taken 4: Not Without My Son!

1. The Dark Tower - $23m / $23m / $55m
2. Dunkirk - $15m / $130m / $170m
3. Girls Trip - $12.5m / $85m / $125m
4. Detroit - $12m / $12.5m / $35m
**The Emoji Movie - $12m / $48.5m / $74m
6. Atomic Blonde - $9.5m / $35.5m / $58m
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $7.5m / $293m / $312m
8. Kidnap - $7m / $7m / $20m
9. War For the Planet of the Apes - $5.5m / $129.5m / $140m
10. Despicable Me 3 - $5m / $240m / $253m

Dog days are here! Man, the studios really should've bumped something to this month. Maybe Kong: Skull Island should've been saved for this? The Dark Tower is likely a huge flop, reviews are expected to be bad. Detroit might do fine, but it's from a new distributor and I'm doubting word of mouth will be strong. Kidnap's biggest advantage is that 47 Meters Down surprised with a similar release trajectory (supposed to open a year ago, almost went direct to home viewing, picked up by brand new distributor). So who knows? The Call proved Halle should stick with B-thrillers. An Inconvenient Sequel expands to 100-ish locations.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Trailer: Call Me By Your Name

Hmm.  Back to back gay Best Picture winners? Let's do this, Hollywood!

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Box: Atomic Blonde Vs. John Wick Vs. Baby Driver

1. Dunkirk - $29m / $103m / $175m
2. The Emoji Movie - $28m / $28m / $90m
3. Atomic Blonde - $22m / $22m / $65m
4. Girls Trip - $19m / $64m / $100m
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $12m / $277m / $315m
6. War For the Planet of the Apes - $11m / $119.5m / $145m
7. Valerian and the City... - $8m / $32m / $48m
**Despicable Me 3 - $8m / $230.5m / $252m
9. Baby Driver - $3.5m / $91.5m / $100m
10. The Big Sick - $3m / $30m / $40m
***Wonder Woman - $3m / $395m / $405m

Two openers. Emoji Movie seems like a non-starter. I'm not sure if there's just any interest, but with Despicable Me 3 on the way out (almost), it might do okay. The Nut Job 2 is the only other animated family film opening for the rest of the summer. That might help legs. Atomic Blonde feels like it's buzz may have peaked before it opened. There's a lot of action films in the market, but it would be nice if it was a huge success to go with Girls Night and Wonder Woman. An Inconvenient Sequel opens in limited. Should be interesting to see that performs.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Trailer: The Shape of Water

Bestiality is apparently really big this year between Beauty and the Beast and now this. Sally Hawkins, Octavia Spencer, Michael Shannon and Richard Jenkins star in Guillermo Del Toro's fantasy about a deaf woman who develops a connection with a sea creature.

Box: Box-office Superstar Harry Styles

1. Dunkirk - $46m / $46m / $165m
2. Girls Trip - $33m / $33m / $100m
3. War For the Planet of the Apes - $25m / $104m / $155m
4. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $21m / $251.5m / $305m
5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets - $18m / $18m / $50m
6. Despicable Me 3 - $11.5m / $211.5m
7. Baby Driver - $5m / $83m / $100m
**The Big Sick - $5m / $24.5m / $40m
9. Wonder Woman - $4m / $388m / $400m
10. Wish Upon - $2m / $10m / $13.5m
***Cars 3 - $2m / $144m / $148m

A potentially big weekend ahead. Dunkirk has the best reviews of the year and seems like the rare non-franchise movie that will demand audiences see it on the big screen. Legs should take it all the way to the end of the season, and well into Oscar season. I'm playing it a little safe with my predictions, though. Girls Trip has a lot of buzz and will do what Rough Night and Snatched couldn't: actually break out. Reviews are very good, and despite films aimed at African Americans typically being frontloaded, this could cross over. Luc Besson's hugely budgeted Valerian might sway the people who want an "original" big budget film that don't like World War II movies. But given the astronomical budget, a subpar opening (anything under $30m+) will instantly trigger articles about how badly it will lose money which will trigger big drops. The Big Sick didn't quite do as anticipated last weekend, though hopefully legs will be strong for the rest of the season.

Sunday, July 16, 2017

RIP George Romero

The father of the zombie genre and someone who helped usher social politics into the horror genre, George Romero died today at the age of 77. Here is Hollywood Reporter's article on his passing.

Night of the Living Dead remains one of my all-time favorite movies, a terrifying glimpse of society that asks us who the real monsters are. Thank you, George, for creating a genre I love so very much and for the many filmmakers and film lovers you have inspired and will continue to inspire.

Here is Edgar Wright's tribute to him.

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Box: They finally made a monkey out of me!

1. War For the Planet of the Apes - $65m / $65m / $185m
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $49m / $213.5m / $325m
3. Despicable Me 3 - $20m / $189m / $240m
4. The Big Sick - $10m / $18m / $75m
5. Baby Driver - $8m / $72m / $95m
6. Wish Upon - $7m / $7m / $20m
7. Wonder Woman - $6m / $379.5m / $400m
8. Cars 3 - $3.5m / $140m / $149m
9. Transformers: The Last Knight - $3m / $125m / $132m
10. The House - $2.5m / $24m / $29m

War will reside somewhere between Rise and Dawn. Spider-Man did about what was expected and should be enough for summer's third place. The Big Sick expands wide after a hugely impressive run in limited. It's still going to be leggy and Amazon no doubt has hopes of turning those numbers into award season gold. Wish Upon is the last opener. It's probably hoping for 47 Meters Down numbers, but will probably only get halfway there. (23 Meters Down?) Lastly, Wonder Woman is certain to take down Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 to be summer's champ. And it looks like it will be hitting 400m. Check out those sexy legs. Baby Driver is sporting some nice ones, too.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Box: Does that mean the new Spider-Man has a dance sequence?

1. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $110m / $110m / $285m
2. Despicable Me 3 - $37m / $153m / $235m
3. Baby Driver - $11m / $56m / $82m
4. Wonder Woman - $9m / $369m / $390m
5. Transformers: The Last Knight - $8m / $122m / $140m
6. Cars 3 - $6m / $134m / $150m
7. The House - $4m / $18m / $27m
8. The Big Sick - $2.5m / $6m / $40m
**47 Meters Down - $2.5m / $38m / $45m
10. The Beguiled - $2m / $7.5m / $13m

Another year, another Spider-Man reboot. This one is blessed by being in the Marvel Universe, which many are predicting will give the franchise the bump it needs. I'm playing it a little safe. Despicable Me 3 disappointed in its opening, but with only one other animated film this summer it should have legs. Baby Driver proved to be a surprise, and if it shows legs it has an outside shot at $100m. The Big Sick continues to impress, and is following a similar trajectory as Amazon's Manchester by the Sea. Kind of odd comparison to make, but here we are.

Friday, June 30, 2017

Box: But it's called Baby Driver! This is blatant false advertising.

1. Despicable Me 3 - $93m / $93m / $285m
2. Transformers: The Last Knight - $21m / $106m / $148m
3. Wonder Woman - $14.5m / $344.5m / $380m
4. Baby Driver - $14m / $23m / $55m
5. The House - $13m / $13m / $40m
6. Cars 3 - $11.5m / $122.5m / $148m
7. 47 Meters Down - $4m / $32m / $40m
8. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead... - $3m / $166m / $173m
**The Beguiled - $3m / $3.3m / $15m
10. The Mummy - $2.5m / $74m / $79m
***All Eyez on Me - $2.5m / $43.5m / $47m

A trio of openers. It would have been a quartet had Amityville: Whateverthefuckitscalled not been delayed for the umpteenth time. Despicable Me 3 will do fine. There's only 2 more animated movies this summer, so $300m isn't out of the question. Transformers underwhelmed, thank goodness. Let's just put that and Pirates to bed, please! Baby Driver could be in for a leggy run, as it's Wednesday gross was pretty solid. The House will add to the long list of flop comedies of the past year. The Beguiled expands to just above the wide threshold, and will be good counter-programing. As will The Big Sick, which had the highest PTA of the year last weekend. It expands wide July 14th and maybe that will be the movie that saves comedy.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Box: Transmorfers

1. Transformers: The Last Knight - $50m / $80m / $165m
2. Cars 3 - $30m / $105m / $165m
3. Wonder Woman - $25m / $318m / $370m
4. All Eyez on Me - $9m / $42m / $56m
5. The Mummy - $6.5m / $69.5m / $82m
6. 47 Meters Down - $6m / $22m / $34m
7. Pirates: Dead Men Tell No Tales - $5m / $159.5m / $170m
8. Captain Underpants - $4m / $65.5m / $74m
**Rough Night - $4m / $16m / $23m
10. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 - $3.5m / $380.5m / $388m

Transformers arrives the only wide opener this weekend. Horrible reviews aside, this franchise has run out of gas domestically but will be saved internationally. Much like Pirates. The Beguiled and The Big Sick open in limited, and hopefully both will break out. Anything over $15m would be great for both. Wonder Woman continues to slay, but will likely finish just shy of Guardians for the summer. Still a great run.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Happy 50th, Nicole!

The one and only. Turning 50, her career is hotter than ever. A true legend whose filmography will be a gift to cinephiles for generations to come.

50 Ways To Celebrate Nicole Kidman's 50th Birthday

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Trailer: Detroit

Second (and much improved) trailer for Kathryn Bigelow's upcoming docudrama. The first trailer was slightly messy, but this one is very impressive.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Box: The Book of Hardcore Henry

1. Cars 3 - $56m / $56m / $165m
2. Wonder Woman - $33m / $267m / $345m
3. All Eyez on Me - $18m / $18m / $38m
4. Rough Night - $15m / $15m / $44m
5. The Mummy - $13.5m / $57m / $84m
6. 47 Meters Down - $7m / $7m / $20m
7. Captain Underpants - $6.5m / $57m / $72m
8. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - $5.5m / $147m / $159m
9. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 2 - $3.5m / $373m / $380m
10. It Comes At Night - $2m / $10.5m / $14m
***Baywatch - $2m / $55.5m / $59m
***Megan Leavey - $2m / $8m / $11m
***The Book of Henry - $1m / $1m / $3m

4 openers, and one in moderate. Cars 3 exists solely to sell merchandise. It's gross is almost irrelevant. Wonder Woman held strong last weekend, and should have a decent hold this weekend, too. It probably won't be enough to replace Guardians as summer's #1. All Eyez on Me will be very (very very) frontloaded, so even a successful weekend probably won't mean much after the fact. Rough Night had a low budget, but reviews are mixed and it probably needs strong word of mouth to breakout. It had potential. 47 Meters Down was leaked almost a year ago, so anything in the high single digits would be a win. The Book of Henry seems to be dumped. There's way too much similar movies right now. Not sure why some of these smaller movies couldn't have opened in May?