OSCAR PREDICTIONS (2 of 2)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
I get the feeling one of the three female-led films will miss. Anomalisa is also a possibility here, but that feels like an Animated-only thing.
alt: The Martian
THE BIG SHORT
BROOKLYN
CAROL
ROOM
STEVE JOBS

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
I'm actually really only confident in Spotlight and Inside Out. Sicario and Son of Saul are also possibilities.
alt: Straight Outta Compton
BRIDGE OF SPIES
EX MACHINA
THE HATEFUL EIGHT
INSIDE OUT
SPOTLIGHT

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Good Lord, this is a cluster fuck. There's like 4-5 other guys who could show up here: Paul Dano, Benecio Del Toro, Mark Ruffalo, Micheal Keaton and Tom Hardy. Jeesh.
alt: Michael Shannon - 99 Homes
CHRISTIAN BALE - THE BIG SHORT
IDRIS ELBA - BEASTS OF NO NATION
MARK RYLANCE - BRIDGE OF SPIES
SYLVESTER STALLONE - CREED
JACOB TREMBLAY - ROOM

LEADING ACTOR:
Johnny Depp and Steve Carell are also possible. It's also possible Tremblay shows up in lead. With Leo being so far out front of everyone, a surprise nom can happen here quite easily. A surprise like, say, Michael B. Jordon?
alt: Will Smith - Concussion
BRYAN CRANSTON - TRUMBO
MATT DAMON - THE MARTIAN
LEONARDO DICAPRIO - THE REVENANT
MICHAEL FASSBENDER - STEVE JOBS
EDDIE REDMAYNE - THE DANISH GIRL

THE ACTRESSES...
I'm doing these together as so much is dependent on if they buy Mara and Vikander (for Danish) as supporting. I'm going to predict that they do. I mean, is Vikander really going to get nominated for an Oscar for playing a killer sex robot? (It would be amazing, obviously.) And then, if they are bought in supporting, who does that leave for leading? I think the best thing to do is to predict the safest possible thing, as when faced with doing something cool the Academy almost always doesn't. So:

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
I'm hoping I regret putting Vikander in for Danish. I really, really want Rachel to happen, but I ultimately think her complete lack of interest in campaigning and a non-showy performance will keep her out. Fonda and Youth's buzz seems to have died, but Lord knows she was campaigning.
alt: Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
JENNIFER JASON LEIGH - THE HATEFUL EIGHT
ROONEY MARA - CAROL
HELEN MIRREN - TRUMBO
ALICIA VIKANDER - THE DANISH GIRL
KATE WINSLET - STEVE JOBS

LEADING ACTRESS:
Theron, Mirren (ugh, if that fucking happens..), Mara and even Tomlin are possibilities. Rampling missed BAFTA which is a huge blow, but she's been campaigning and much like Jason Leigh is considered due.
alt: Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl (Yeah, covering my ass here.)
CATE BLANCHETT - CAROL
BRIE LARSON - ROOM
JENNIFER LAWRENCE - JOY
CHARLOTTE RAMPLING - 45 YEARS
SAOIRSE RONAN - BROOKLYN

DIRECTING:
Villanueve could happen if Sicario goes over bigger than expected. There's also F. Gary Gray for a complete surprise.
alt: Todd Haynes - Carol
ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU - THE REVENANT
TOM MCCARTHY - SPOTLIGHT
ADAM MCKAY - THE BIG SHORT
GEORGE MILLER - MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
RIDLEY SCOTT - THE MARTIAN

BEST PICTURE:
THE BIG SHORT
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
SPOTLIGHT
6. CAROL
7. ROOM
8. BROOKLYN
9. BRIDGE OF SPIES
10. STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON
alt: Sicario
Or Inside Out. Or maybe Beasts of No Nation makes a giant Oscar-nom morning comeback. Or Son of Saul breaks out of Foreign. Or The Force Awakens. I'm curious if Compton can get Picture and nothing else.

I'm going to predict 8 Best Picture nominations.

I have Mad Max and Revenant tying with 9 nominations, Carol and The Martian with 8, The Big Short and Star Wars: The Force Awakens with 5, while Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Room and Spotlight get 4.

Welp, that's it. Good luck everyone and see you in the morning!

Go Regina George!