Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Box: Bullock/McCarthy 2016

1. The Heat - $44m / $44m / $135m
2. Monsters University - $41m / $165m / $250m
3. White House Down - $40m / $40m / $120m
4. World War Z - $29m / $124m / $185m
5. Man of Steel - $18m / $246m / $290m
6. This Is the End - $6.5m / $72.5m / $88m
7. Now You See Me - $4m / $103m / $114m
8. Fast and Furious 6 - $2.5m / $233.5m / $239m
9. The Internship - $1.5m / $42m / $45m
The Purge - $1.5m / $63m / $66m
Star Trek Into Darkness - $1.5m / $220m / $224m

I really have no idea about this crazy weekend.  Last weekend saw Monsters University make almost exactly what I predicted, which is good because Despicable Me 2 is looking to come on strong next Wednesday.  World War Z went bigger, also good given the massive budget from all those reshoots.  It's also that rare case of a film being saved by extensive reshoots.  Given Pitt + zombies, the worldwide gross should be enough to make it profitable, something that seemed impossible at the end of last year.  White House Down seems to be lost in the endless onslaught of action films and it might hurt that Olympus Has Fallen is finishing just below $100m.  I still expect it to outgross that film, but had that film not existed WHD might have gone a lot bigger.  The Heat should win the weekend, but it'll be close.  Fox seems to have a lot of confidence in the Bullock/McCarthy comedy given the release change from April to June, a sequel being greenlit a few months back and that they've been aggressively screening it for audiences.  However, no reviews yet isn't a good sign for its critical prospects.  But, if Melissa McCarthy can get Identity Thief to mid 30's opening with Jason Bateman, she shouldn't have trouble going higher with Sandra Bullock. 

Worth noting this weekend pits recent box-office stars Channing Tatum and Melissa McCarthy against each other.  If you had told me that five years ago....

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