Oscar Predictions - Part 3 Is Usually Not as Good as the First Two

ANIMATED FEATURE:

BRAVE

FRANKENWEENIE

PARANORMAN

THE PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS

WRECK-IT RALPH

Nominees I've Seen: All
Commentary: Brave is Pixar's worst reviewed nominated film since Cars.  That film lost to Happy Feet back in '06.  If it does pull off a victory, it's the power of Pixar and not the actual film.  Wreck-It Ralph is the second highest grossing nominee and probably the best reviewed.
WILL WIN: WRECK-IT RALPH
I'D VOTE FOR: I want PARANORMAN to win so badly!  How many films can claim to be animated, have zombies and a strong social message?  Casey Affleck's character is one of my favorite characters this year. 
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I think there were two other films released this year that were animated - Madagascar 3 and Rise of the Guardians.  Yeah, this lineup is fine.

 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

AMOUR

KON-TIKI

NO

A ROYAL AFFAIR

WAR WITCH

Nominees I've Seen.  Zero.  Second year in a row I saw none of these prior to Oscar night.
Commentary: There's rumblings of a Kon-Tiki upset, and this category is known for knocking down frontrunners a little too easily.  That said, Amour almost has too broad of support.
WILL WIN: AMOUR
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Oslo, August 31 - Strangely and sadly, there weren't too many foreign breakthroughs this year.

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

5 BROKEN CAMERAS

THE GATEKEEPERS

HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE

THE INVISIBLE WAR

SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN

Nominees I've Seen: Sugar Man, nothing else.
Commentary: Sugar Man is the highest grossing and the one that people seem to be most excited about.  It helps here if the film is a crowdpleaser. 
WILL WIN: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I think if Queen of Versailles had been nominated, it could have given Sugar Man a run for the win. 


As for the Shorts, I'm going to predict...
SHORT FILM - DOCUMENTARY: INOCENTE
SHORT FILM - ANIMATED: PAPERMAN
SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION: CURFEW
These are now open to all of the Academy to vote for.  That should make things interesting.  The only one I've seen is Paperman, which I loved.  Maggie Simpson In 'The Longest Daycare' actually aired before Bob's Burgers last week, but I missed most of it.