ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
ARGO - Chris Terrio
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD - Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
LIFE OF PI - David Magee
LINCOLN - Tony Kushner
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK - David O. Russell
Nominees I've Seen: All
Commentary: Beasts and Pi writers needn't prepare a speech, it's between the other three. Lincoln seemed upstoppable at the start of the season, but outside of the Critic's Choice Award, hasn't won anything major. Silver took the BAFTA, while Argo took WGA & USC Scripter. Like editing, Argo needs another win outside of Picture.
WILL WIN: ARGO
I'D VOTE FOR: LINCOLN
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The only other major contender that could've unseated a nominee here was The Perks of Being a Wallflower. It should have.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
AMOUR - Michael Haneke
DJANGO UNCHAINED - Quentin Tarantino
FLIGHT - John Gatins
MOONRISE KINGDOM - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
ZERO DARK THIRTY - Mark Boal
Nominees I've Seen: Have not seen Amour, saw the rest.
Commentary: Funny thing about this category - three years ago Boal's Hurt Locker screenplay beat Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds screenplay, and I would've preferred it the other way around. This time, Boal's work is better than Tarantino's, but Quentin has the better chance. This is a close race between Tarantino and Haneke, and I suspect most people would consider Quentin due another win.
WILL WIN: DJANGO UNCHAINED - Quentin Tarantino
I'D VOTE FOR: MOONRISE KINGDOM - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Genre bender Cabin in the Woods and largely improvised Your Sister's Sister.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
ALAN ARKIN as Lester Siegel in ARGO
ROBERT DE NIRO as Pat Solitano Sr in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN as Lancaster Dodd in THE MASTER
TOMMY LEE JONES as Thaddeus Stevens in LINCOLN
CHRISTOPH WALTZ as Dr. King Schultz in DJANGO UNCHAINED
Commentary: This is the first time in the Academy's 85 year history that an acting category is comprised entirely of previous winners. (De Niro is a two time winner.) As far as precursors, Jones won SAG, Hoffman won Critics Choice and Waltz won BAFTA & the Globe. Arkin can sit this one out, Hoffman probably can, too. Waltz is the newest winner here, so he's probably third. That leaves the award to Jones or De Niro. Eenie, meenie, miney, moe...
WILL WIN: TOMMY LEE JONES - LINCOLN
I'D VOTE FOR: PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - THE MASTER. Outside of Arkin (who I liked but the role is too one-note and small to earn award nominations), I really liked all the performances here.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: If you told me a year ago that I'd be lamenting Matthew McConaughey not being nominated for an Oscar, I'd say you were a mental patient. For his career best year and range showing performances in Magic Mike and Killer Joe, he deserved it. Zero Dark Thirty's Jason Clarke sadly didn't get a single mention this season.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
AMY ADAMS as Peggy Dodd in THE MASTER
SALLY FIELD as Mary Todd Lincoln in LINCOLN
ANNE HATHAWAY as Fantine in LES MISERABLES
HELEN HUNT as Cheryl Cohen-Greene in THE SESSIONS
JACKI WEAVER as Dolores Solitano in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Nominees I've Seen: All
Commentary: This is the first time in the Academy's 85 year history that this category does not feature a first-time nominee. So, Anne's taking this. Field is a distant second and everyone else is an even more distant third, fourth and fifth.
WILL WIN: ANNE HATHAWAY - LES MISERABLES
I'D VOTE FOR: ANNE HATHAWAY -
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Yeah, Anne for Dark Knight Rises. Emily Blunt does her best work since The Devil Wears Prada as a sexy, gun-wielding distraught mother in Looper. Nicole Kidman continues to be the most fearless actress alive with her work in The Paperboy, but one of my favorite performances of the year was Rosemarie DeWitt in Your Sister's Sister. I get the feeling it's only a matter of time until she finally gets the role that sends her to the Dolby Theater.
BEST LEADING ACTOR:
BRADLEY COOPER as Pat Solitano Jr in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS as Abraham Lincoln in LINCOLN
HUGH JACKMAN as Jean Valjean in LES MISERABLES
JOAQUIN PHOENIX as Freddie Quell in THE MASTER
DENZEL WASHINGTON as William "Whip" Whitaker in FLIGHT
Nominees I've Seen: All
Commentary: Three-time Oscar-winner Meryl Streep will welcome Daniel Day-Lewis into the three-timers club.
WILL WIN: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - LINCOLN
I'D VOTE FOR: BRADLEY COOPER - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (OMG!)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The amazing Anders Danielsen Lie in the little seen Oslo, August 31 as well as snubbee John Hawkes in The Sessions.
BEST LEADING ACTRESS:
JESSICA CHASTAIN as Maya in ZERO DARK THIRTY
JENNIFER LAWRENCE as Tiffany Maxwell in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
EMMANUELLE RIVA as Anne Laurent in AMOUR
QUVENZHANE WALLIS as Hushpuppy in BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
NAOMI WATTS as Maria Bennett in THE IMPOSSIBLE
Nominees I've Seen: Haven't seen Riva or Watts, saw the rest
Commentary: 9-year-old Quvenzhane can enjoy her first Oscars. Chastain, who seemed like she was going to win about 2 months ago, will also sit this one out because of the film's controversy. One of the strangest occurances this season was the large industry support for Naomi. Angelina Jolie held screenings, Reese Witherspoon wrote letters, everyone and their friend couldn't stop talking about Naomi. It hasn't led to any victory, but I would honestly not be at all shocked it she pulled off an upset. The statue, though, is between the 86-year-old Riva and the 22-year-old Lawrence. Riva has gained traction in the past couple of weeks, but I think overall Silver Linings is more loved and this is its best chance at a major win.
WILL WIN: JENNIFER LAWRENCE - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (but just barely)
I'D VOTE FOR: JESSICA CHASTAIN - ZERO DARK THIRTY
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Ann Dowd was stupidly campaigned for supporting for Compliance. It's, in my opinion, the best leading performance by an actress this year. Meryl Streep's work in Hope Springs far eclipses her winning turn in last year's The Iron Lady. And Leslie Mann, who made my supporting actress ballot in 2007 for her character in Knocked Up, effortlessly returns to the role and again hits it out of the park in This Is 40.
BEST DIRECTING:
MICHAEL HANEKE - AMOUR
BENH ZEITLIN - BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
ANG LEE - LIFE OF PI
DAVID O. RUSSELL - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
STEVEN SPIELBERG - LINCOLN
Nominees I've Seen: Haven't seen Amour, saw the rest.
Commentary: Ben Affleck would obviously win this if he were, you know, nominated. Zeitlin is in last, with Haneke above him. Russell could win if Silver Linings goes over big and it would be a sign that Silver Linings might upset in Picture. I think he's pissed far too many people off over the years. Lee and Spielberg both have Directing Oscars. Both have directings Oscars for films that didn't win Picture. One will add another directing Oscar for a film that doesn't win Picture. When trying to guess what the Academy will go, always go with the most boring choice.
WILL WIN: STEVEN SPIELBERG - LINCOLN
I'D VOTE FOR: ANG LEE - LIFE OF PI
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Forget Affleck. Kathryn Bigelow deserved to be here far more than him for Zero Dark Thirty. And when will Wes Anderson break out of screenplay and into the directing category? Moonrise Kingdom would have been the perfect vehicle.
BEST PICTURE:
AMOUR
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Nominees I've Seen: All except Amour
Commentary: Silver Linings and Lincoln will put up a fight to the bitter end. Argo, directing snub aside, has swept through this season winning every major prize in sight.
WILL WIN: ARGO
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Moonrise Kingdom probably would have been here had they kept the expanded field to 10.
My personal ranking of the 8 Best Picture nominees I've seen:
8. LES MISERABLES
I was so excited when Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway sang together the year he hosted the Oscars. I said to many people, "Someone needs to put them in a great musical together!" After seeing Les Miserables, I'm still saying that. There's about three memorable numbers in this overstuffed musical, and the rest is just singing. Singing. More singing. Still singing. The reason Hathaway has swept through the season so easily is because her "I Dreamed a Dream" is the only moment that manages to yield any sort of authentic emotion. It's like a rose growing in a field of shit. Well, that's a little too far. The movie isn't terrible. It's just....there. Long after the film is over, you'll remember the actors opening their mouths looking like they are singing, but you remember a damn thing that was coming out.
7. ARGO
Ben Affleck's third film as a director, and each of his films have been Oscar nominated. Even if this film went over well with the Academy, the best thing about any of his films is still Amy Ryan's performance in Gone Baby Gone. He shows skills with actors, and his films look like they were well made. He just feels like he's copying too many directors he admires, and has yet to find his own real voice as a filmmaker. Argo is an okay to decent film, certainly a crowdpleaser that many loved. It's just way too conventional, and like Spielberg gets too schmaltzy for its own good at the end. But, given this film shows Hollywood saving the day, it's no wonder it's been so popular.
6. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Benh Zeitlin, meanwhile, does have a specific vision and his first feature is half successful at getting it up on the screen. There's just a few too many half baked ideas going on here, as if he thought that emulating Terrrence Malick would entirely work for the setting. His skill with Quvenzhane is terrific, but I'm not commenting any more on that debate. The score for this should have been nominated given how weak that field was.
5. LINCOLN
Perfectly acted and written, and best of all Spielberg abandoned some of his annoying Spielbergisms...until the last 10 minutes when he almost ruins it. Good comeback from last year's dreadful War Horse. A movie that will be shown in high schools for years/decades to come, it's more a movie to admire than really love.
4. DJANGO UNCHAINED
Probably my least favorite Tarantino. That is not saying much of anything, as I consider almost everything he's done to be among the best of the best. Jamie Foxx deserves more credit for his performance than he received, and the supporting lineup of nominated Waltz, Leonardo Dicaprio, a menacing Samuel L. Jackson and Kerry Washington are terrific. Cinematography, sound, costumes and prediction design are great, and given who is behind the film, surprisingly non-cartoonish. I do wonder how much of an impact Tarantino having a new editor made on the film, but this is a still a really good film.
3. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
The first half of the film reminded me of the great dramedies of the 90's, with an energy and rythym all its own. The ensemble, led by a fantastic Bradley Cooper, is flawless and it has a very keen sense of place. It's a genuinely feel good film, even if it gets a little too conventional in its latter half.
2. LIFE OF PI
Another visual dazzler from Ang Lee. I'm not familiar with the source material, but everyone said it was impossible to adapt. A technical stunner, like previous Best Picture nominees Avatar and Hugo - both of which took home the trifecta Cinematography, Visual Effects and Production Design. This film, though, has far more emotional heft than those. Like most of Lee's films, its emotional resonance remains long after the credits roll.
I'D VOTE FOR:
1. ZERO DARK THIRTY
Gripping procedural about the decade long hunt to find and kill Osama Bin Laden. Chastain's performance is a masterclass in restraint, with many drawing comparison's to Jodie Foster's work in Silence of the Lambs. Jason Clarke deserved more credit than he got for handling the film's controversial torture scenes. And like Life of Pi, that last moment lingers with you leaving the ending up to many interpretations.
Any of the top 3 would make a deserving Best Picture Winner.
No comments:
Post a Comment