The Oscars: WHO WILL WIN!

Tomorrow - who should win!


BEST PICTURE:
1. No Country for Old Men - 35%
2. Juno - 25%
3. There Will Be Blood - 18%
4. Atonement - 14%
5. Michael Clayton - 8%

NCFOM has win every major AMERICAN award, sweeping all 4 major guilds, the first movie to do so since Return of the King. I have Juno second cause I could conceivably buy NCFOM and TWBB being for the same audience, causing vote splitting, allowing for the little indie crowdpleaser (and highest grosser of the batch) to sneak in. Atonement is not last for me - whereas it seems to be for everyone else - due to it winning the Globe and the BAFTA. Can a film that won both of those be listed last? I THINK NOT!


BEST DIRECTING:
1. Joel and Ethan Coen - 40%
2. Julian Schnabel - 28%
3. Paul Thomas Anderson - 20%
4. Jason Reitman - 8%
5. Tony Gilroy - 4%

Schnabel could become the 2nd person to win the Oscar for directing without a Picture nom, but the Coens are still out in front. I just get the feeling that "Diving Bell" will get recognized somewhere.

BEST ACTOR:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis - 45%
2. George Clooney - 20%
3. Johnny Depp - 16%
4. Viggo Mortensen - 14%
5. Tommy Lee Jones - 5%

DDL's getting #2, but I'd like to put Depp as runner up. If it weren't for Cloooney being the cat's pajamas to Hollywood.

BEST ACTRESS:
1. Julie Christie - 30%
2. Marion Cotillard - 29%
3. Ellen Page - 28%
4. Laura Linney - 12%
5. Cate Blanchett - 1%

A close one. I REALLY REALLY REALLY want to buy into Marion. For starters, Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney have raved her. In EW's secret Oscar ballot thinger, almost everyone said they voted for Marion. I really haven't heard a single person say they voted for Julie. (I heard several for Ellen and Laura.) Damn conformity, everyone is saying Julie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Javier Bardem - 38%
2. Hal Holbrook - 32%
3. Casey Affleck - 16%
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - 8%
5. Tom Wilkinson - 6%

Bardem should have this locked up, but never underestimate an old veteran, especially in the supporting category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Tilda Swinton - 27%
2. Amy Ryan - 26%
3. Ruby Dee - 25%
4. Cate Blanchett - 20%
5. Saoirse Ronan - 3%

Perhaps the category of the night? Dee is in AG for 4 minutes, but apparently is an industry veteran that must have an Oscar. This seems to work better for men than women. Ryan has big Hollywood support through Affleck, but Tilda has bigger Hollywood support through Clooney. This is the best way to reward Michael Clayton. A case could be made for Blanchett, but I think she has more going against her than for her.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Juno - 40%
2. Michael Clayton - 30%
3. Ratatouille - 20%
4. The Savages - 6%
5. Lars and the Real Girl - 4%

The former stripper gets it. Honest to blog!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1. No Country for Old Men - 34%
2. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 28%
3. There Will Be Blood - 22%
4. Atonement - 15%
5. Away From Her - 1%

ANIMATED FEATURE:
Ratatouille. Duh.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
I think they'll overlook Michael Moore in favor of NO END IN SIGHT.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
No idea. Beaufort sounds nice and foreign though?

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Oh boy. The supporting actress of the techs! Again, Diving Bell's gotta score somewhere? Roger Deakins has to finally win instead of cancelling himself out? Atonement has no chance right? So that leaves the oil and fire of THERE WILL BE BLOOD.

ART DIRECTION:
Sweeney Todd is awful drab. Atonement is your classic winner here, but something tells me Mr. Sissy Spacek, Jack Fisk, takes it home for THERE WILL BE BLOOD.

FILM EDITING:
Again with Diving Bell winning somewhere, right? RIGHT? No Country for Old Men's editor isn't a real person, and are they really going to give The Coens 4 Oscars each on one night? That would be cool. Hey, howbout honoring that fantastic series with Matt Damon. The rush of THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM wins out.

VISUAL EFFECTS:
I really hope TRANSFORMERS loses, but it won't.

COSTUME DESIGN:
Sweeney still drab? Elizabeth - been there, done that. Across the Universe is showy, but simple. La Vie En Rose would be a great way to honor Marit Allen (RIP!) But Atonement has that green dress. THAT GREEN DRESS! Eh, SWEENEY TODD will win.

MAKEUP:
Pirates already won, Norbit - umm, no. GO LA VIE EN ROSE!

SOUND MIXING:
That Kevin O'Connell has to win for TRANSFORMERS right?

SOUND EDITING:
No clue, maybe Bourne? I'll go with a tech win for NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN.

ORIGINAL SCORE:
ATONEMENT. Nuff said.

ORIGINAL SONG:
I fell hard for FALLING SLOWLY (ONCE) as the Enchanted songs cancel each other out.

Animated Short:
I Met the Walrus

Live Action Short:
The Tonto Woman

Documentary Short:
La Corona.


No idea on the last 3. LOL.