I'll be back tomorrow with my choices for who I'd vote for. (I am not an Academy member. I've been informed of this via very sternly worded legal letters.) Quite a few close races this year, so should be an exciting show in that regard. The story of this whole season has to be Emilia Pérez going from potential Picture winner to film that might get completely blanked. I don't think I've ever seen a bigger crash during award season (including, well, Crash). While I wasn't a huge fan of that film (I gave it a B-), but the way the industry rallied around it before the controversy was very odd. It fit the mold of a typical White Liberals Love This nominee, I suppose. I think one of the overall narratives of the past decade might be the slow disappearance of the standard Oscar bait. Sure, we have A Complete Unknown and Conclave. But there's also The Substance and Anora, two films that would've struggled to get a single nomination back in the Weinstein heyday. Anyways, on to the predictions...
VISUAL EFFECTS:
Alien: Romulus - Better Man - Dune: Part 2 - Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - Wicked
Despite some primate competition, DUNE: PART 2 will win.
SOUND:
A Complete Unknown - Dune: Part 2 - Emilia Pérez - Wicked - The Wild Robot
Despite some musical competition, DUNE: PART 2 will win, but watch out for the Dylan biopic.
ORIGINAL SONG:
"El Mal" - Emilia Pérez
"The Journey" - The Six Triple Eight
"Like a Bird" - Sing Sing"
"Mi Camino" - Emilia Pérez
"Never Too Late" - Elton John: Never Too Late
How much damage did Karla do to the Emilia campaign? Well, not enough to derail a win here. Probably. "EL MAL" wins, but Elton John and Diane Warren are waiting in the wings.
ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Brutalist - Conclave - Emilia Pérez - Wicked - The Wild Robot
This category could be an indication of Conclave's strength, but THE BRUTALIST will take it.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
A Different Man - Emilia Pérez - Nosferatu - The Substance - Wicked
Monstro ElisaSue wins with THE SUBSTANCE.
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
The Brutalist - Conclave - Dune: Part 2 - Nosferatu - Wicked
I think you could make a case for any of these, but WICKED should bewitch the competition.
COSTUME DESIGN:
A Complete Unknown - Conclave - Gladiator II - Nosferatu - Wicked
Dune: Part 2 should be here and probably should have won. Something WICKED this way comes...to the Oscar stage.
FILM EDITING:
Anora - The Brutalist - Conclave - Emilia Pérez - Wicked
One of the telltale categories to watch, I'd say this is a threeway race between Anora, Conclave, and Wicked. Going with CONCLAVE. I just can't see Sean Baker winning 4 in one night.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Brutalist - Dune: Part 2 - Emilia Pérez - Maria - Nosferatu
Nosferatu will put up a good fight, but THE BRUTALIST takes it.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
Emilia Pérez - Flow - The Girl With the Needle - I'm Still Here - The Seed of the Sacred Fig
And here is exactly where we will see the damage done. As of now, I'M STILL HERE looks to be the winner.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Black Box Diaries - No Other Land - Porcelain War - Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat - Sugarcane
I know the internet would love nothing more than a NO OTHER LAND victory, but I'm not certain. Going for it, there's just no clear alternative.
ANIMATED FEATURE:
Flow - Inside Out 2 - Memoir of a Snail - Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl - The Wild Robot
Flow has put up a real fight all season, and Wallace won at BAFTA, but I think THE WILD ROBOT is just barely ahead.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
A Complete Unknown - Conclave - Emilia Pérez - Nickel Boys - Sing Sing
CONCLAVE wins.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Anora - The Brutalist - A Real Pain - September 5 - The Substance
Pain keeps winning these, but no screenplay has won without a Picture nomination since the field expanded to 10. ANORA wins.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Yura Borisov - Anora
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
KIERAN CULKIN will complete his sweep.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
ZOE SALDAÑA survives the curse and completes her sweep.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
Chalamet will probably be a strong #2 for people who didn't care for The Brutalist or don't want Brody to be a two-time winner. That said, ADRIEN BRODY wins.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison - Anora
Demi Moore - The Substance
Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here
Globe win aside, Fernanda missed SAG & Bafta noms. Only two Oscar winners this century have won after missing them, and both of those were well known character actresses. It's between Mikey & Demi. Demi has been nailing the speeches and won SAG, while Mikey has BAFTA and is probably the lead of the Best Picture winner. That seems odd, but they did it to Michael Keaton 10 years ago. I'll go with DEMI MOORE.
DIRECTING:
Sean Baker - Anora
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
James Mangold - A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
Brady seemed like a lock early in the season, but then he lost DGA and his film is pretty divisive. SEAN BAKER wins, despite certain sections of the internet screaming "But his Twitter likes!"
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part 2
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Conclave has a very strong chance of upsetting, but ANORA is probably just far enough ahead.
DARREN'S FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Documentary Short: Incident
(alt: The Only Girl In the Orchestra)
Best Short Film - Animated: Wander to Wonder
(alt: Yuck!)
Best Short Film - Live Action: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
(alt: Anuja)
Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part 2
(alt: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes)
Best Sound: Dune: Part 2
(alt: A Complete Unknown)
Best Original Song: "El Mal" - Emilia Pérez
(alt: "The Journey" - The Six Triple Eight)
Best Original Score: The Brutalist
(alt: Conclave)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance
(alt: Wicked)
Best Production Design: Wicked
(alt: The Brutalist)
Best Costume Design: Wicked
(alt: Nosferatu)
Best Film Editing: Conclave
(alt: Anora)
Best Cinematography: The Brutalist
(alt: Nosferatu)
Best International Feature: I'm Still Here
(alt: Emilia Pérez)
Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land
(alt: Porcelain War)
Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot
(alt: Flow)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
(alt: Nickel Boys)
Best Original Screenplay: Anora
(alt: A Real Pain)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
(alt: Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
(alt: Isabella Rossellini - Conclave)
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
(alt: Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown)
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Demi Moore - The Substance
(alt: Mikey Madison - Anora)
Best Directing: Sean Baker - Anora
(alt: Brady Corbet - The Brutalist)
Best Picture: Anora
(alt: Conclave)
WINS:
Anora - 3
The Brutalist - 3
Conclave - 2
Dune: Part 2 - 2
Emilia Pérez - 2
The Substance - 2
Wicked - 2
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