Announcing on Thursday morning. Finally. Voter turnout may have been very low due to the fires, so these might be more international than usual.
VISUAL EFFECTS
DUNE: PART 2
GLADIATOR II
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
MUFASA: THE LION KING
WICKED: PART 1
alt: Better Man
The bakeoff was those 6 with Alien: Romulus, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Twisters. I think Civil and Deadpool are the only two I can't see making it.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"COMPRESS/REPRESS" - CHALLENGERS
"EL MAL" - EMILIA PÉREZ
"MI CAMINO" - EMILIA PÉREZ
"THE JOURNEY" - THE TRIPLE SIX EIGHT
"KISS THE SKY" - THE WILD ROBOT
alt: "NEVER TOO LATE" - Elton John: Never Too Late
Would love it if Diane Warren finally missed. Would also love it if Emilia only got one nom. Or none.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
THE BRUTALIST
CHALLENGERS
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PÉREZ
THE WILD ROBOT
alt: Nosferatu
SOUND
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
DUNE: PART 2
EMILIA PÉREZ
GLADIATOR II
WICKED: PART 1
alt: Blitz
Bakeoff was those plus Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot, and Joker 2. But not Civil War or Furiosa???
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
DUNE: PART 2
NOSFERATU
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED: PART 1
alt: A Different Man
Bakeoff was those, plus The Apprentice, Maria, Emilia P, and Waltzing With Brando. I don't think the last one even has a release date?
PRODUCTION DESIGN
THE BRUTALIST
DUNE: PART 2
GLADIATOR II
NOSFERATU
WICKED: PART 1
alt: Conclave
COSTUME DESIGN
DUNE: PART 2
GLADIATOR II
MARIA
NOSFERATU
WICKED: PART 1
alt: A Complete Unknown
Fingers crossed that Furiosa can score a surprise nom here or in Production Design.
FILM EDITING
ANORA
CHALLENGERS
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART 2
EMILIA PÉREZ
alt: A Complete Unknown
Or The Subtance. The Brutalist would show some power if it did get nominated here. If September 5 gets in here, it probably scores a Picture slot, too.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE BRUTALIST
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART 2
MARIA
NOSFERATU
alt: Nickel Boys
Ready for the meltdowns if Wicked gets in here?
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
EMILIA PÉREZ
THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE
I'M STILL HERE
KNEECAP
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG
alt: Vermiglio
I won't be surprised if Kneecap misses as it seems a lot of hope-dicting going on with that.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
DAHOMEY
DAUGHTERS
NO OTHER LAND
SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP d'ETAT
SUGARCANE
alt: Black Box Diaries
ANIMATED FEATURE
FLOW
INSIDE OUT 2
MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
WALLACE AND GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
THE WILD ROBOT
alt: Moana 2
That's most likely it.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PÉREZ
NICKEL BOYS
SING SING
alt: Dune: Part 2
Or Wicked.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A REAL PAIN
SEPTEMBER 5
THE SUBSTANCE
alt: Challengers
Oof, that September slot is up for grabs. There's also Hard Truths and All We Imagine As Light.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
YURA BORISOV - ANORA
KIERAN CULKIN - A REAL PAIN
EDWARD NORTON - A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
GUY PEARCE - THE BRUTALIST
JEREMY STRONG - THE APPRENTICE
alt: Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing
Or Denzel. Maybe Jonathan Bailey if Wicked is big. Succession, its power!
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
JAMIE LEE CURTIS - THE LAST SHOWGIRL
ARIANA GRANDE - WICKED: PART 1
FELICITY JONES - THE BRUTALIST
ISABELLA ROSSELLINI - CONCLAVE
ZOE SALDAÑA - EMILIA PÉREZ
alt: Selena Gomez - Emilia Pérez
Zoe and Ariana are in. I'd say Isabelle is next due to the strength of her film and she's campaigning hard. Then maybe Felicity. After that... We have JLC, Margaret Qualley, Monica Barbaro, Danielle Deadwyler, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor all scoring nominations throughout the season. And I think everyone has resigned to Selena being the one who gets noms only to miss in the end. JLC is campaigning hard and it'll be odd to see her get in without Pamela. It's also been clear over the last 6-7 years just how beloved she is even if her personality is like a crazy aunt.
LEADING ACTOR
ADRIEN BRODY - THE BRUTALIST
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET - A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
DANIEL CRAIG - QUEER
COLMAN DOMINGO - SING SING
RALPH FIENNES - CONCLAVE
alt: Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
I think this lineup has been clear since late November. Craig missing BAFTA was a big blow, but I have to think Stan winning the Globe for a different film might lead to him taking votes from himself. (He deserves it for A Different Man.) There's also Hugh Grant and Jesse Eisenberg, but I'd say Craig and Stan are neck and neck for that last slot.
LEADING ACTRESS
CYNTHIA ERIVO - WICKED: PART 1
KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN - EMILIA PÉREZ
MARIANNE JEAN-BAPTISTE - HARD TRUTHS
MIKEY MADISON - ANORA
DEMI MOORE - THE SUBSTANCE
alt: Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here
Another one where the last slot is up for grabs. Nicole Kidman, Angelina Jolie, Kate Winslet, Saoirse Ronan, Pamela Anderson, Tilda Swinton, Amy Adams, and Zendaya all scored noms throughout the season. But I'd say they all are sitting this one out. It's Marianne and Fernanda for the last spot.
DIRECTING
SEAN BAKER - ANORA
BRADY CORBET - THE BRUTALIST
EDWARD BERGER - CONCLAVE
JACQUES AUDIARD - EMILIA PÉREZ
CORALIE FARGEAT - THE SUBSTANCE
alt: James Mangold - A Complete Unknown
It's the four guys, and then an open spot. Maybe Payal Kapadia? RaMell Ross?
BEST PICTURE
ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART 2
EMILIA PÉREZ
A REAL PAIN
SING SING
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED: PART 1
alt: September 5
Or Nickel Boys.
Nom tally:
Emilia P - 10
The Brutalist - 9
Conclave - 8
Dune: Part 2 - 8
Wicked: Part 1 - 8
Anora - 5
A Complete Unknown - 5
The Substance - 5
Gladiator II - 4
Nosferatu - 4
Challengers - 3
A Real Pain - 3
Sing Sing - 3
The Wild Robot - 3
Maria - 2
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