VISUAL EFFECTS
The Midnight Sky
The One and Only Ivan
Soul
Tenet
Welcome To Chechnya
alt: Mank
Hey, a Doc in Visual Effects! The world really is ending.
SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
alt: Soul
ORIGINAL SONG
"Husavik" - Eurovision Song Content: The Story of Fire Saga
"Fight For You" - Judas and the Black Messiah
"Io Si (Seen)" - The Life Ahead
"Speak Now" - One Night In Miami...
"Hear My Voice" - The Trial of the Chicago 7
alt: "Turntables" - All In: The Fight For Democracy
Praying for "Husavik"! Probably the nomination that would make me happiest on nomination morning.
ORIGINAL SCORE
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Soul
alt: Tenet
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Glorias
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
alt: Emma.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
News of the World
alt: Tenet
COSTUME DESIGN
Emma
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
alt: The Personal History of David Copperfield
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cherry
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
alt: The Trial of the Chicago 7
FILM EDITING
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
alt: The Father
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Boys State
Collective
Crip Camp
Time
Welcome To Chechnya
alt: The Truffle Hunters
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Another Round
Collective
Dear Comrades!
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Two of Us
alt: I'm No Longer Here
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
alt: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father
First Cow
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night In Miami...
alt: The White Tiger
Or Borat. Everything except for First Cow should be in. That last slot is up for grabs, and it's one of the few places I'm being a little brave with my predictions.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
alt: Judas and the Black Messiah
If Soul can make this group, it's probably in for Pic.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr - One Night In Miami...
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
alt: Jared Leto - The Little Things
It's almost shocking that Leto might be a thing. I'm not sold on Boseman being a double nominee, especially with this nom being for a film that might be completely shutout. And Raci is still a gamble, having only made BAFTA (which doesn't mean much this year) and Critics Choice. Some are predicting Alan Kim, too.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Jodie Foster - The Mauritanian
Olivia Colman - The Father
Youn Yuh-jung - Minari
alt: Helena Zengel.
Dominique Fishback might break this group if her film goes over big. But I think it's some grouping of the above 6 plus Amanda Seyfried. This category has been crazy this year. At one point, Glenn or Amanda looked like the frontrunners. Now, there's a possibility they could be snubbed. Crazy. Mauritanian did well with BAFTA, and Foster's Globe win hit at the right time. Oddly, Bakalova has the been the most consistent presence in this category.
LEADING ACTOR
Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Steven Yeun - Minari
alt: Tahar Rahim - The Mauritanian
I think everyone is predicting these 5. Interesting that both lead categories look to be somewhat settled. So that means we're in for a shock? Maybe Lindo makes it after all? Mads Mikkelson?
LEADING ACTRESS
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day - The United States Vs Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
alt: Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy
The Globe win solidified Day, and the reaction to it proved she has a lot of support. Kirby might be shakiest, but this is the 5 most are predicting.
DIRECTING
Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
David Fincher - Mank
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Chloe Zhao - Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7
alt: Florian Zeller - The Father
Again, the lineup almost everyone has.
BEST PICTURE
MANK
MINARI
NOMADLAND
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
6. MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
7. SOUND OF METAL
8. ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...
9. THE FATHER
10. JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
alt: Soul
Or News of the World.
I'm predicting the standard 9 nominees.
Nomination tally:
Mank - 11
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 7
Minari - 7
Nomadland - 7
Sound of Metal - 6
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6
Promising Young Woman - 5
The Father - 4
News of the World - 4
One Night In Miami... - 4
Judas and the Black Messiah - 3 (4 if Pic)
The Midnight Sky - 3
Soul - 3
I'm praying to the elves!
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