I'll only share my "I'd Vote For:" in categories where I've seen all of the nominees. I haven't seen any of the shorts. Among the rest, I haven't seen:
Border
Capernaum
Cold War
Free Solo
Hale County...
Minding the Gap
Mirai
Never Look Away
Of Fathers and Sons
Shoplifters
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
WILL WIN: It's probably between Avengers and Player, with First Man an outside spoiler. I think I'll go with Infinity War because it probably has one of the most talked about effects sequences of the year - the turned-to-dust superheroes.
I'D VOTE FOR: Ready Player One
BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
WILL WIN: This is actually a tough one. Lots of people are predicting Bohemian to take both sound categories, but musicals typically don't win here. A film with a sole nomination here hasn't won in quite a while, and despite that I'm leaning towards A Quiet Place. It's possible Black Panther could score wins in either sound category. Really, I think Roma is the only film with a slim shot.
I'D VOTE FOR: A Quiet Place
BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
WILL WIN: Sadly, this looks like a victory for Bohemian.
I'D VOTE FOR: A Star Is Born's concert sequences came alive in a way Bohemian's didn't.
BEST MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars" - Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns
"I'll Fight" - R.B.G.
"Shallow" - A Star Is Born
WILL WIN: Oscar-winner Lady Gaga, just delayed three years
I'D VOTE FOR: Oscar-winner Lady Gaga, deserving for that Sound of Music tribute from four years ago. This is a very solid lineup, though!
BEST MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
WILL WIN: I think it's a battle between the first three, so this one's up for grabs. I'm leaning toward Beale Street as it was one of the most talked about scores, but it's still odd it'll win against two Best Picture nominees. And in a category that could represent an easy win for one of them.
I'D VOTE FOR: If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
WILL WIN: A pretty damn easy win for Vice.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
WILL WIN: The Favourite will surpass Black Panther and live up to its title in this category.
I'D VOTE FOR: The Favourite
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
WILL WIN: I'm apparently being brave and predicting Panther over Favourite here. I think they are going to give Black Panther something and this category makes the most sense.
I'D VOTE FOR: The Favourite
BEST FILM EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
WILL WIN: Sadly, this looks like a Bohemian victory. Vice has a chance, but is probably too divisive. Klansman probably isn't showy enough.
I'D VOTE FOR: The Favourite should easily win this sad category.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
WILL WIN: Roma
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
R.B.G.
WILL WIN: R.B.G. over Free Solo, though a lot of people are predicting the latter.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
WILL WIN: Roma, obviously. Though it would totally be an Academy thing to give it to Cold War as a makeup award.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
WILL WIN: Spider-Man will be the rare animated film to win over Pixar.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
WILL WIN: Spike Lee wins his first competitive Oscar.
I'D VOTE FOR: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
WILL WIN: The Favourite, but Green Book sadly still has a shot. And if it does win, it's probably taking Picture, too.
I'D VOTE FOR: I'd be tempted by First Reformed, just to give it something. In the end, I'd probably go with The Favourite.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
MAHERSHALA ALI - GREEN BOOK
ADAM DRIVER - BLACKkKLANSMAN
SAM ELLIOT - A STAR IS BORN
RICHARD E. GRANT - CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
SAM ROCKWELL - VICE
WILL WIN: Ali has streamrolled thought the season, and he'll go all the way back to the Dolby stage.
I'D VOTE FOR: Grant really did get screwed this season.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
AMY ADAMS - VICE
MARINA DE TAVIRA - ROMA
REGINA KING - IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
EMMA STONE - THE FAVOURITE
RACHEL WEISZ - THE FAVOURITE
WILL WIN: Regina
I'D VOTE FOR: Regina
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
CHRISTIAN BALE - VICE
BRADLEY COOPER - A STAR IS BORN
WILLEM DAFOE - AT ETERNITY'S GATE
RAMI MALEK - BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
VIGGO MORTENSEN - GREEN BOOK
WILL WIN: Rami
I'D VOTE FOR: Bradley Cooper. And man did he get screwed this year!
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
YALITZA APARICIO - ROMA
GLENN CLOSE - THE WIFE
OLIVIA COLMAN - THE FAVOURITE
LADY GAGA - A STAR IS BORN
MELISSA MCCARTHY - CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
WILL WIN: Glenn wins on her seventh nom, thus making Amy Adams the most nominated actor without an Oscar. In due time, Amy!
I'D VOTE FOR: I prefer Olivia over Glenn, but I'd probably vote for Glenn.
BEST DIRECTING
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War
Yorgos Lathimos - The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Adam McKay - Vice
WILL WIN: Alfonso becomes the 2nd Amigo to get a 2nd directing Oscar.
BEST PICTURE
BLACK PANTHER
BLACKkKLANSMAN
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
VICE
WILL WIN: Despite the Netflix and streaming bias, Roma takes this over Green Book. Maybe just barely. Worth noting: I've predicted the WRONG Best Picture winner the past four years. Shame on me!
My ranking of the Best Picture nominees:
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. A Star Is Born
4. Blackkklansman
5. Black Panther
6. Green Book
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
DARREN'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS (TL,DR):
BEST PICTURE: ROMA
(alt: Green Book)
BEST DIRECTING: Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
(alt: Spike Lee)
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Glenn Close - The Wife
(alt: Olivia Colman)
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
(alt: Christian Bale)
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
(alt: Rachel Weisz)
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
(alt: Richard E. Grant)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Favourite
(alt: Green Book)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Blackkklansman
(alt: Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
(alt: The Incredibles 2)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Roma
(alt: Cold War)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: R.B.G.
(alt: Free Solo)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Roma
(alt: A Star Is Born)
BEST FILM EDITING: Bohemian Rhapsody
(alt: Vice)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Black Panther
(alt: The Favourite)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Favourite
(alt: Black Panther)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Vice
(alt: Mary Queen of Scots)
BEST MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE: If Beale Street Could Talk
(alt: Blackkklansman)
BEST MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG: "Shallow" - A Star Is Born
(alt: "All the Stars" - Black Panther)
BEST SOUND MIXING: Bohemian Rhapsody
(alt: A Star Is Born)
BEST SOUND EDITING: A Quiet Place
(alt: Black Panther)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avengers: Infinity War
(alt: Ready Player One)
and the shorts...
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Marguerite
(alt: Mother)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Period. End of Sentence
(alt: End Game)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Bao
(alt: Weekends)
No comments:
Post a Comment