Announced Tuesday morning.
This has been one of the longest Oscar seasons I can remember, and we haven't even hit the home stretch yet. My enthusiasm for the ceremonies themselves and (most of) the films haven't diminished, but this was a trying season to follow the race. I'm not the only one who noticed this as many of the top pundits admit to being "over it". Controversy after controversy, "backlash" after backlash. Perhaps the oddest development is this: for all the internet hated Harvey Weinstein's antics during his heyday, they were more than happy to get passed the baton once he was permanently out. Some films fully deserve the treatment they get (witness the various controversies over Green Book and it's screenwriter) but this whole thing has gotten so negative and draining. Ready for the restart that March brings, and hope the upcoming seasons aren't so toxic. And really hope the Academy comes to its senses about the changes they are making to the telecast. Hopefully, John Bailey is out as Academy President sooner or later.
But...
So many questions waiting to be answered about Tuesday's nominations and where they will take us:
+Will Emily Blunt finally get that long awaited first Oscar nom?
+Despite being primed to be the front-runner earlier this season, A Star Is Born has fizzled out considerably. Will being the potential nomination leader give it a much needed boost?
+Is Green Book as strong as it appears? It's managed to survive every setback that came its way. If it comes on stronger than anticipated, that makes it the front runner.
+Or is that front runner Roma? Can it get over the Netflix hurdle and make a play or plays for top 8 category victories?
+Does the Academy ignore last year's "Time's Up" and #metoo movements and give many nominations to Bohemian Rhapsody, directed by an alleged serial rapist?
+Should Black Panther be happy with that billion dollar gross or does it get some nominations that The Dark Knight couldn't?
+Can Crazy Rich Asians show up anywhere?
Here we go...
VISUAL EFFECTS
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
BLACK PANTHER
READY PLAYER ONE
SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
WELCOME TO MARWEN
alt: First Man
Bakeoff was those 6, plus Mary Poppins Returns, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. Despite Marwen being a bomb, it apparently played really well with the voters during its presentation.
SOUND EDITING
BLACK PANTHER
FIRST MAN
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT
A QUIET PLACE
ROMA
alt: Ready Player One
This would be the first Oscar nom for the Mission: Impossible franchise. Crazy.
SOUND MIXING
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
FIRST MAN
A QUIET PLACE
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
alt: Black Panther
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"ALL THE STARS" - BLACK PANTHER
"GIRL IN THE MOVIES" - DUMPLIN'
"THE PLACE WHERE LOST THINGS GO" - MARY POPPINS RETURNS
"I'LL FIGHT" - R.B.G.
"SHALLOW" - A STAR IS BORN
alt: "Revelation" - Boy Erased
There was a bakeoff of 15 potential nominees for this category. I went with "Place Where Lost Things Go" over "Trip a Little Light Fantastic" because the former is waaay better than the latter.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
BLACK PANTHER
FIRST MAN
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
ISLE OF DOGS
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
alt: Blackkklasnman
Or A Quiet Place. Probably between those 7.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BORDER
STAN AND OLLIE
VICE
alt: Bohemian Rhapsody
Bakeoff was those, plus Susprira, Mary Queen of Scots and Black Panther. I think Vice may be the only lock. The other 2 noms could be any of the films.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
BLACK PANTHER
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST MAN
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
ROMA
alt: Mary Queen of Scots
COSTUME DESIGN
BLACK PANTHER
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
alt: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
No idea about the alternate, but I wouldn't be surprised if Buster comes up in some categories. Remember when Fantastic Beasts won this 2 years ago? Blechk.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
COLD WAR
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST MAN
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
alt: If Beale Street Could Talk
FILM EDITING
BLACKKKLANSMAN
FIRST MAN
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
VICE
alt: Green Book
If Green Book is going for Best Picture, it needs in here. This could be a crazy category to watch. I don't think anything is locked in here. Maybe Roma? There's also 2 or 3 other movies that have a strong shot.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
FREE SOLO
MINDING THE GAP
R.B.G.
THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS
WON'T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR?
alt: Shirkers
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
BURNING
CAPERNAUM
COLD WAR
ROMA
SHOPLIFTERS
alt: The Guilty
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES 2
ISLE OF DOGS
MIRAI
RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
alt: Early Man
This has been the five that showed up everywhere, right?
And the top 8...
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BLACKKKLANSMAN
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
LEAVE NO TRACE
A STAR IS BORN
alt: Black Panther
Or Crazy Rich Asians. A Star Is Born might not be entirely set here. The Death of Stalin could also make its way in.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
EIGHTH GRADE
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
ROMA
VICE
alt: First Reformed
What helps Vice is that the people who love it really love it. I think almost everyone is predicting this lineup, but the A24 movies could easily swap places.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
MAHERSHALA ALI - GREEN BOOK
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET - BEAUTIFUL BOY
ADAM DRIVER - BLACKKKLANSMAN
SAM ELLIOT - A STAR IS BORN
RICHARD E. GRANT - CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
alt: Sam Rockwell - Vice
This is the SAG lineup. Timothee might be the weak link given he's likely the only nomination for his film.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
AMY ADAMS - VICE
CLAIRE FOY - FIRST MAN
REGINA KING - IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
EMMA STONE - THE FAVOURITE
RACHEL WEISZ - THE FAVOURITE
alt: Margot Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots
With Emily Blunt up next. This is the Globes lineup.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
CHRISTIAN BALE - VICE
BRADLEY COOPER - A STAR IS BORN
RAMI MALEK - BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
VIGGO MORTENSEN - GREEN BOOK
JOHN DAVID WASHINGTON - BLACKKKLANSMAN
alt: Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
Yeah, I finally let go of Hawke. LOL. This is the SAG lineup.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
EMILY BLUNT - MARY POPPINS RETURNS
GLENN CLOSE - THE WIFE
OLIVIA COLMAN - THE FAVOURITE
LADY GAGA - A STAR IS BORN
MELISSA MCCARTHY - CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
alt: Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
I think Yalitza would have showed up somewhere if she was showing up here. I'll probably regret sticking with Blunt, but I'm ride or die with her. This is the SAG lineup.
DIRECTING
SPIKE LEE - BLACKKKLANSMAN
YORGOS LATHIMOS - THE FAVOURITE
PETER FARRELLY - GREEN BOOK
ALFONSO CUARON - ROMA
BRADLEY COOPER - A STAR IS BORN
alt: Adam McKay - Vice
After Lee, Cuaron and Cooper, it gets a little tough. There's also Pawel. But no women. Women can not direct this year.
BEST PICTURE
BLACKKKLANSMAN
BLACK PANTHER
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
VICE
9. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
10. FIRST MAN
alt: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I'm predicting 8 Best Picture nominees.
Nomination tally:
A Star Is Born - 10
Roma - 9
The Favourite - 9
Black Panther - 7
First Man - 7
Blackkklansman - 6
Vice - 6
Green Book - 5
Mary Poppins Returns - 5
Bohemian Rhapsody - 4
If Beale Street Could Talk - 3
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 3
First Man could set a record in the expanded lineup era for most nominations without a Best Picture nomination.
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