Monday, January 22, 2018

90th Oscar Predictions!



Announced at 8:22AM Eastern tomorrow morning on ABC and The Academy's official YouTube page. There will be two announcements.

At 8:22 a.m. Eastern, the nominees will be announced in the following categories (listed here in no particular order): Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.

At 8:38:30 a.m. Eastern, the nominees will be announced in the following categories (listed here in no particular order): Actor in a Leading Role, Actor in a Supporting Role, Actress in a Leading Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Animated Feature Film, Directing, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Foreign Language Film, Original Song, Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.

So, here we go...


VISUAL EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
KONG: SKULL ISLAND
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES
alt: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
Bakeoff was also Alien: Covenant, Okja, The Shape of Water and Guadians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2.

SOUND EDITING
BABY DRIVER
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
WONDER WOMAN
alt: The Shape of Water
I'm not confident in Wonder Woman, but it has to show up somewhere right?

SOUND MIXING
BABY DRIVER
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
alt: The Greatest Showman
These two categories have never matched, apparently. A lot of people have this lot for both Mixing and Editing. I have to wonder if Greatest Showman becoming a word of mouth hit might have been too late for nominations.


ORIGINAL SONG
"EVERMORE" - BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
"MYSTERY OF LOVE" - CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
"REMEMBER ME" - COCO
"THIS IS ME" - THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
"MIGHTY RIVER" - MUDBOUND
alt: "Stand Up For Something" - Marshall
I'd love for one of the Patti Cake$ songs to get nominated, but it probably won't happen. What random ass documentary will get a waste of a nomination this year?

ORIGINAL SCORE
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
PHANTOM THREAD
THE POST
THE SHAPE OF WATER
alt: Blade Runner 2049
I really hope Three Billboards doesn't get in here.


MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
DARKEST HOUR
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY: VOL. 2
I, TONYA
alt: Wonder
Bakeoff was these four plus Bright, Ghost In the Shell and Victoria & Abdul. Bright is probably getting nominated LOL. I'm not watching it.

PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER
alt: Murder on the Orient Express
Looks okay. Maybe The Post?

COSTUME DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
PHANTOM THREAD
THE SHAPE OF WATER
alt: I, Tonya
I just can't see Tonya making it in here unless it goes over big. Wonder Woman and Darkest Hour are also possible here.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
MUDBOUND
THE SHAPE OF WATER
alt: Call Me By Your Name
I think everyone is predicting these five.


FILM EDITING
BABY DRIVER
DUNKIRK
I, TONYA
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
alt: Get Out
If you want to win Best Picture, you better be here.

ANIMATED FEATURE
THE BOSS BABY
THE BREADWINNER
COCO
THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE
LOVING VINCENT
alt: Ferdinand
There's a few foreign that are competing, but the voting process for this category has been revamped and will favor more popular titles. Sadly.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
CITY OF GHOSTS
FACES PLACES
ICARUS
JANE
STRONG ISLAND
alt: Last Men In Aleppo
Yeah, totally guessed on 2 of these.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A FANTASTIC WOMAN
FOXTROT
IN THE FADE
LOVELESS
THE SQUARE
alt: The Insult
I think most people have 4/5 of these.


And on to the top 8...

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
THE DISASTER ARTIST
LOGAN
MOLLY'S GAME
MUDBOUND
alt: Blade Runner 2049
That last slot - the one I'm predicting Logan for - is one of the most anticipated of the morning. There's about 6-7 movies that could grab it. I would love to see The Lost City of Z grab that nom.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE BIG SICK
GET OUT
LADY BIRD
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
alt: I, Tonya
Or The Post. I'm not really sold on The Big Sick and many have Water missing. (Typical of the showy visual films missing Screenplay.)


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
WILLEM DAFOE - THE FLORIDA PROJECT
WOODY HARRELSON - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
RICHARD JENKINS - THE SHAPE OF WATER
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
SAM ROCKWELL - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
alt: Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
I think everyone switched to the lineup after BAFTA.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
HONG CHAU - DOWNSIZING
HOLLY HUNTER - THE BIG SICK
ALLISON JANNEY - I, TONYA
LAURIE METCALF - LADY BIRD
OCTAVIA SPENCER - THE SHAPE OF WATER
alt: Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Not really sure why I'm going this way. Hong's nomination, in theory, makes zero sense. How many previously unheard of actors get in for a film that bombed and are the film's sole nomination? It just doesn't make sense. I was never really sold on Blige as she has the Netflix bias to overcome.  Can Tiffany Haddish get enough #1 votes to surprise here? Really - I think the only locks in this category are Allison and Laurie. There's also BAFTA nominees Kristin Scott Thomas and Lesley Manville. Jeepers! Probably the most anticipated acting category because it can go many ways.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET - CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - PHANTOM THREAD
JAMES FRANCO - THE DISASTER ARTIST
DANIEL KALUUYA - GET OUT
GARY OLDMAN - DARKEST HOUR
alt: Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will Franco actually get it? I think the controversy came a little too late into voting to make a difference.


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
SALLY HAWKINS - THE SHAPE OF WATER
FRANCES MCDORMAND - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
MARGOT ROBBIE - I, TONYA
SAOIRSE RONAN - LADY BIRD
MERYL STREEP - THE POST
alt: Judi Dench - Victoria and Abdul
I think I've been saying since, like, late October that this was the lineup. The Post has underperformed everywhere, so people think Dench or Brooklynn Prince or Jessica Chastain or Michelle Williams (whose pay controversy may have hit at just the right time) will grab that last slot. I'm sticking with my guns.

DIRECTING
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN - DUNKIRK
JORDAN PEELE - GET OUT
GRETA GERWIG - LADY BIRD
GUILLERMO DEL TORO - THE SHAPE OF WATER
MARTIN MCDONAGH - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
alt: Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Lots of predictions for Sean Baker. People really believe that if you direct children, you get nominated. (See Benh Zeitlein and Lenny Abrahamson.) I really hope that Greta and Jordan hit not just because I'm rooting for them. I'm just not ready for the headache of a backlash, deserving as it might be.


And finally...

BEST PICTURE
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
GET OUT
LADY BIRD
THE POST
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
9. The Florida Project
10. I, Tonya
alt: The Big Sick

I really should have just predicted 7, and let Darkest Hour out. I can't figure out what to do with those last 4 movies. Ah, well...

I think the big question of the morning will be if Netflix can finally break into the Oscar race.

Nomination tally:
The Shape of Water - 12
Dunkirk - 9
Three Billboards - 7
Darkest Hour - 6
Blade Runner 2049 - 5
Lady Bird - 5
Call Me By Your Name - 4
Get Out - 4
I, Tonya - 4
Baby Driver - 3
Beauty and the Beast - 3
Mudbound - 3
Phantom Thread - 3
The Post - 3
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