BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION: SING
BEST SHORT FILM - ANIMATED: PEARL
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: THE WHITE HELMETS
I definitely put a lot of thought into those and didn't just pick what everyone else was predicting. I'm only doing "I'd Vote For"'s if I've seen every nominee in a category.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
DEEPWATER HORIZON
DOCTOR STRANGE
THE JUNGLE BOOK
KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
This should be a pretty easy victory for The Jungle Book, with Rogue One and Doctor Strange as potential upsets.
WILL WIN: THE JUNGLE BOOKI'D VOTE FOR: THE JUNGLE BOOK
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Honestly, nothing. I tried to find a movie like Ex Machina which used effects in a subtle way, but too many movies are just non-stop visual effects.
BEST SOUND EDITING
ARRIVAL
DEEPWATER HORIZON
HACKSAW RIDGE
LA LA LAND
SULLY
Most Academy members have no idea what the difference is between this category and sound mixing, but I think the ones who do know that La La Land should not be nominated here. That means the race is between Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival. The louder war movie should prevail.WILL WIN: HACKSAW RIDGE
I'D VOTE FOR: ARRIVAL
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Don't Breathe, a movie that's dependent on sound enhancing its atmosphere, would have been a worthy contender.
BEST SOUND MIXING
13 HOURS: THE SECRET SOLDIERS OF BENGHAZI
ARRIVAL
HACKSAW RIDGE
LA LA LAND
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
La La Land, despite controversy over some of the numbers being hard to hear clearly, will win. Musicals are just too hard to resist in this category. Arrival, which won the BAFTA for Sound, is probably second.WILL WIN: LA LA LAND
I'D VOTE FOR: ARRIVAL
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Hell Or High Water probably wasn't too far off from showing up in one of the sound categories.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"THE EMPTY CHAIR" - JIM: THE JAMES FOLEY STORY
"AUDITION (THE FOOLS WHO DREAM)" - LA LA LAND
"CITY OF STARS" - LA LA LAND
"HOW FAR I'LL GO" - MOANA
"CAN'T STOP THE FEELING" - TROLLS
The La La Land numbers will lead the way, with "City" taking the prize.WILL WIN: "City of Stars" - La La Land
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: It's really hard to believe how "Drive It Like You Stole It" from Sing Street has been screwed over this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
JACKIE
LA LA LAND
LION
MOONLIGHT
PASSENGERS
Since this is music, guess what wins!WILL WIN: LA LA LAND
I'D VOTE FOR: LA LA LAND, though the Jackie score is superb.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Arrival joins the ranks of iconic scores that was disqualified. Get your shit together, music branch!
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLING
A MAN CALLED OVE
STAR TREK BEYOND
SUICIDE SQUAD
Foreign film with old people makeup is fastly becoming the hottest genre among Oscar voters.WILL WIN: STAR TREY BEYOND
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Well, if you're going to nominate Suicide Squad, you might as well nominate Deadpool.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
ARRIVAL
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
HAIL, CAESAR!
LA LA LAND
PASSENGERS
La La Land should safely have this, as it's hard to see what might be able to beat it.WILL WIN: LA LA LAND
I'D VOTE FOR: LA LA LAND, though I might consider Arrival.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I'm struggling with this one. High Rise? The Witch? 10 Cloverfield Lane? I haven't seen several of the films that were considered snubbed in this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
ALLIED
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
JACKIE
LA LA LAND
This is, along with Sound Editing, the tech category that La La Land stands the best chance at losing. Jackie's recreation of iconic images should give it the edge.WILL WIN: JACKIE
I'D VOTE FOR: JACKIE
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Dressmaker, and it probably should have won.
BEST FILM EDITING
ARRIVAL
HACKSAW RIDGE
HELL OR HIGH WATER
LA LA LAND
MOONLIGHT
Another victory for La La Land as it's hard to figure out what might be in second.WILL WIN: LA LA LAND
I'D VOTE FOR: ARRIVAL
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Here's a completely outside of the box choice: Nerve.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
ARRIVAL
LA LA LAND
LION
MOONLIGHT
SILENCE
Lion shockingly won the ASC, but La La Land is still ahead of it.WILL WIN: LA LA LAND
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Witch
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
FIRE AT SEA
I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO
LIFE, ANIMATED
O.J.: MADE IN AMERICA
13TH
Negro and 13th will give OJ a run for his money, but the ESPN docuseries should prevail.WILL WIN: OJ: MADE IN AMERICA
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
LAND OF MINE
A MAN CALLED OVE
THE SALESMAN
TANNA
TONI ERDMANN
Toni seemed like a good bet a month or so ago, but the controversy over the Muslim band will give The Salesman the edge.WILL WIN: THE SALESMAN
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS
MOANA
MY LIFE AS A ZUCCHINI
THE RED TURTLE
ZOOTOPIA
Zootopia is the highest grossing and probably wasn't too far off from a screenplay nom. It probably beats Moana and Kubo.WILL WIN: ZOOTOPIA
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
ARRIVAL
FENCES
HIDDEN FIGURES
LION
MOONLIGHT
Moonlight should take this, but Lion is right behind ready to strike.WILL WIN: MOONLIGHT
I'D VOTE FOR: MOONLIGHT
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: It's hard to believe that Love and Friendship missed the boat in this category throughout the season.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
HELL OR HIGH WATER
20TH CENTURY WOMEN
LA LA LAND
THE LOBSTER
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
There's still a race here. The Oscar sweeper or Manchester will prevail, and I'm going for the upset.WILL WIN: MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
I'D VOTE FOR: This is actually tough. I admire Lobster's weirdness, but want to honor Lonergan even if I think Manchester isn't his best. In the end, I'd actually go with HELL OR HIGH WATER.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Take your pick: The Witch, Other People, The Nice Guys, Little Men.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
MAHERSHALA ALI - MOONLIGHT
JEFF BRIDGES - HELL OR HIGH WATER
LUCAS HEDGES - MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
DEV PATEL - LION
MICHAEL SHANNON - NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
WILL WIN: ALI, but Patel could easily upset given how potent Lion has been in the later portion of the season.I'D VOTE FOR: ALI
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: John Goodman's terrific work as 10 Cloverfield Lane's villain. Sam Neill in Hunt For the Wilderpeople sadly received no major accolades this season.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
VIOLA DAVIS - FENCES
NAOMIE HARRIS - MOONLIGHT
NICOLE KIDMAN - LION
OCTAVIA SPENCER - HIDDEN FIGURES
MICHELLE WILLIAMS - MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
WILL WIN: DAVIS. Sign, sealed, delivered.
I'D VOTE FOR: DAVISSHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Molly Shannon for Other People
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
CASEY AFFLECK - MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
ANDREW GARFIELD - HACKSAW RIDGE
RYAN GOSLING - LA LA LAND
VIGGO MORTENSEN - CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
DENZEL WASHINGTON - FENCES
This is one of those categories where it would fun to see the final vote tally. It seems like it's Affleck vs Washington. Surprisingly enough, those secret voters that so many publications do show a wealth of support for Viggo. Could he Adrien Brody it? Doubtful. I think the love for Denzel (as evident as SAG) usurps Casey and his creepiness. Casey does have friends in high places, though, and the industry doesn't seem to care too much about his past deeds.WILL WIN: WASHINGTON
I'D VOTE FOR: AFFLECK
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Gosling was far more deserving for The Nice Guys than La La Land.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
ISABELLE HUPPERT - ELLE
RUTH NEGGA - LOVING
NATALIE PORTMAN - JACKIE
EMMA STONE - LA LA LAND
MERYL STREEP - FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
It was once thought that Natalie would win her second, but once she lost the Globe it seemed like her chances were done. Isabelle Huppert has her supporters, but I don't think in the end it'll be enough to win over Emma. It'll be close.WILL WIN: STONE
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: It will forever be a mystery how a film like Arrival gets so much love, but it's heart and soul is left out: Amy Adams.
BEST DIRECTING
DENIS VILLENEUVE - ARRIVAL
MEL GIBSON - HACKSAW RIDGE
DAMIEN CHAZELLE - LA LA LAND
KENNETH LONERGAN - MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
BARRY JENKINS - MOONLIGHT
WILL WIN: CHAZELLEI'D VOTE FOR: VILLENEUVE
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Robert Eggers for The Witch.
BEST PICTURE
ARRIVAL
FENCES
HACKSAW RIDGE
HELL OR HIGH WATER
HIDDEN FIGURES
LA LA LAND
LION
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
MOONLIGHT
In the end, the balloting system might make this closer than we think, but...WILL WIN: LA LA LAND
HERE'S MY PERSONAL RANKING OF THE NOMINEES:
1. ARRIVAL
2. MOONLIGHT
3. LA LA LAND
4. HELL OR HIGH WATER
5. MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
6. LION
7. HIDDEN FIGURES
8. FENCES
9. HACKSAW RIDGE
DARREN'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS - TL,DR EDITION
BEST PICTURE: LA LA LAND
(alt: Moonlight)
BEST DIRECTING: DAMIEN CHAZELLE - LA LA LAND
(alt: Barry Jenkins - Moonlight)
BEST ACTOR: DENZEL WASHINGTON - FENCES
(alt: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea)
BEST ACTRESS: EMMA STONE - LA LA LAND
(alt: Isabelle Huppert - Elle)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: MAHERSHALA ALI - MOONLIGHT
(alt: Dev Patel - Lion)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: VIOLA DAVIS - FENCES
(alt: Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
(alt: La La Land)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: MOONLIGHT
(alt: Lion)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: ZOOTOPIA
(alt: Moana)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: OJ MADE IN AMERICA
(alt: 13th)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: THE SALESMAN
(alt: Toni Erdmann)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: LA LA LAND
(alt: Lion)
BEST FILM EDITING: LA LA LAND
(alt: Hacksaw Ridge)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: JACKIE
(alt: La La Land)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: LA LA LAND
(alt: Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: STAR TREK BEYOND
(alt: Suicide Squad)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "CITY OF STARS" - LA LA LAND
(alt: "How Far I'll Go" - Moana)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: LA LA LAND
(alt: Jackie)
BEST SOUND MIXING: LA LA LAND
(alt: Arrival)
BEST SOUND EDITING: HACKSAW RIDGE
(alt: Arrival)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: THE JUNGLE BOOK
(alt: Doctor Strange)
BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION: SING
(alt: Silent Nights)
BEST SHORT FILM - ANIMATED: PEARL
(alt: Piper)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: THE WHITE HELMETS
(alt: Watani: My Homeland)
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