So many exciting races that will completely end tomorrow because La La Land is winning big, right? We've learned from the past several years to never say the race is finished this early, but that film is a damn juggernaut.
For some reason, I thought I had predicted the shorts before but apparently I didn't. I guess I just predicted those winners before the show.
HERE WE GO...
VISUAL EFFECTS
ARRIVAL
DEEPWATER HORIZON
DOCTOR STRANGE
THE JUNGLE BOOK
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
alt: Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
The bakeoff included those six, plus Kubo and the Two Strings, The BFG, Captain America: Civil War and Passengers.
SOUND EDITING
ARRIVAL
DEEPWATER HORIZON
HACKSAW RIDGE
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
SULLY
alt: The Jungle Book
Or Hell or High Water. If La La Land shows up here, it's pretty much unbeatable.
SOUND MIXING
ARRIVAL
HACKSAW RIDGE
THE JUNGLE BOOK
LA LA LAND
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
alt: Deepwater Horizon
Or any of the films in sound editing or visual effects.
ORIGINAL SONG
"RUNNIN'" - HIDDEN FIGURES
"AUDITION (THE FOOLS WHO DREAM)" - LA LA LAND
"CITY OF STARS" - LA LA LAND
"HOW FAR I'LL GO" - MOANA
"DRIVE IT LIKE YOU STOLE IT" - SING STREET
alt: "Can't Stop the Feeling" - Trolls
"Drive It.." will be the death of me. I'm not letting it go. There are lots of documentary nominees with potential. Outside of La La Land and Moana, this category is a crapshoot. Probably another nature documentary that no one saw will show up. I really like Ellie Goulding's song from Bridget Jones's Baby and The Lumineers' song from Pete's Dragon, but they have no chance.
ORIGINAL SCORE
THE BFG
JACKIE
LA LA LAND
LION
MOONLIGHT
alt: Kubo and the Two Strings
Everyone is predicting The BFG so I followed suit. Hidden Figures might get nominated. Sucks that Arrival was disqualified.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
DEADPOOL
A MAN CALLED OVE
STAR TREK BEYOND
alt: Florence Foster Jenkins
The bakeoff was those four, plus The Dressmaker, Suicide Squad and Hail Caesar!. And hopefully Deadpool's run doesn't extend beyond this category. I went with Ove cause this branch loves old people in foreign films.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
HAIL, CAESAR!
JACKIE
LA LA LAND
SILENCE
alt: Arrival
Maybe The Handmaiden if enough people have seen it? I'm not sold on Arrival because it's so subtle. Flashier is better here.
COSTUME DESIGN
THE DRESSMAKER
FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
HAIL, CAESAR!
JACKIE
LA LA LAND
alt: Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
This is a category that La La Land might actually miss. Again, flashier is better and modern costumes (even the ones meant to be throwbacks) have a tough time here. Allied is another possibility.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
ARRIVAL
LA LA LAND
LION
MOONLIGHT
SILENCE
alt: Nocturnal Animals
I think the majority are predicting this lineup.
FILM EDITING
ARRIVAL
HACKSAW RIDGE
HELL OR HIGH WATER
LA LA LAND
MOONLIGHT
alt: Manchester by the Sea
Manchester's editing is divisive, so I think that knocks it out.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
LAND OF MINE
A MAN CALLED OVE
PARADISE
THE SALESMAN
TONI ERDMANN
alt: Tanna
Bakeoff was those, plus three others. Toni is most likely the winner.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
13TH
CAMERAPERSON
I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO
LIFE, ANIMATED
O.J.: MADE IN AMERICA
alt: Gleason
I wonder if Made In America might actually miss because of it being on television.
ANIMATED FEATURE
KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS
MOANA
MY LIFE AS A ZUCCHINI
THE RED TURTLE
ZOOTOPIA
alt: Your Name
I think everyone laughed at the Zucchini film when it was nomianted for a Globe, but now everyone is predicting it.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
ARRIVAL
FENCES
HIDDEN FIGURES
LION
MOONLIGHT
alt: Nocturnal Animals
Or Loving or Hacksaw Ridge. Of that lineup, I think Fences might be the most in danger.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
HELL OR HIGH WATER
LA LA LAND
THE LOBSTER
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
ZOOTOPIA
alt: Captain Fantastic
That last slot is up for grabs. In fact, The Lobster might not be so safe here either. There's a handful of films that could get it.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
MAHERSHALA ALI - MOONLIGHT
JEFF BRIDGES - HELL OR HIGH WATER
HUGH GRANT - FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
DEV PATEL - LION
AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON - NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
alt: Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
So why go with Aaron over Lucas? Because Nocturnal got 9 BAFTA Nominations and 4 Globe Nominations. The last time a film had that much support from those 2 and didn't get any Oscar nominations was...uh...
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
VIOLA DAVIS - FENCES
NAOMIE HARRIS - MOONLIGHT
NICOLE KIDMAN - LION
OCTAVIA SPENCER - HIDDEN FIGURES
MICHELLE WILLIAMS - MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
alt: Janelle Monae - Hidden Figures
Yeah, that's my best guess for an alt. If SAG and the Globes agreed on this category, chances are those are the five that are happening.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
CASEY AFFLECK - MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
ANDREW GARFIELD - HACKSAW RIDGE
RYAN GOSLING - LA LA LAND
VIGGO MORTENSEN - CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
DENZEL WASHINGTON - FENCES
alt: Joel Edgerton - Loving
Viggo feels the weakest, but it would be so weird to see Joel get in while Ruth is probably 7th or 8th in Actress.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
AMY ADAMS - ARRIVAL
ISABELLE HUPPERT - ELLE
NATALIE PORTMAN - JACKIE
EMMA STONE - LA LA LAND
MERYL STREEP - FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
alt: Annette Bening - 20th Century Women
With Ruth Negga and Emily Blunt behind. If Hidden Figures had been out a few weeks earlier, Taraji might have stood a chance.
FILM DIRECTING
DENIS VILLENEUVE - ARRIVAL
DAMIEN CHAZELLE - LA LA LAND
GARTH DAVIS - LION
KENNETH LONERGAN - MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
BARRY JENKINS - MOONLIGHT
alt: Martin Scorsese - Silence
David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water falling in next. And hopefully, fingers crossed, none for Mel Gibson.
BEST PICTURE
ARRIVAL
LA LA LAND
LION
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
MOONLIGHT
6. HELL OR HIGH WATER
7. HIDDEN FIGURES
8. FENCES
9. HACKSAW RIDGE
10. SILENCE
I'm going to predict 7 (SEVEN!) Best Picture nominees.
So, nomination tallies would be:
La La Land - 13
Arrival - 9
Moonlight - 8
Lion - 7
Manchester by the Sea - 5
Hacksaw Ridge - 4
Hell Or High Water - 4
Hidden Figures - 4
Jackie - 4
See y'all in the morning!
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