Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Box: Have we come up with a Pitt/Cotillard hybrid name? Pittillard?

1. Moana
Disney's latest Holiday offering won't hit the highs that Frozen hit 3 years ago, but it should easily outdo The Good Dinosaur's mediocre numbers. The three day will probably be in the mid 50's, with the 5-day in the high 70's, possibly low 80's. Legs will be difficult to determine as Dinosaur plummeted after its 5-day opening last year. It should be able to get near $200m when all is said and done.

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
For the film's second weekend, it will hit about $40m for the 3-day, which will take it to just under $150m by Sunday evening. Final total should hit about $230-240m

3. Allied
Sadly, reviews are average. 5-day will be in the high 20's, with the 3-day in the mid to high teens. It probably won't make more than $65m at the domestic box-office.

4. Doctor Strange
Marvel's latest will take in about $16m for Thanksgiving weekend bringing its total up to under $210m. The remainder of the season will get it to about $250m.

5 Trolls
Moana will probably take a little life out of this film's run, but its numbers have been solid. A 3-day in the area of $13m will bring its total to just below $140m. A final domestic gross looks to be in the ballpark of $170m.

6. Arrival
Amy Adams' hit will finish just below $10m for the weekend, taking its total gross to about $60m. Final domestic total will be in the high 70's. A very solid run for an atypical "mainstream" science fiction film.

7. Bad Santa 2
This is a tough one to predict. I'm thinking the lengthy gap between installments will hurt this and 2016's bad case of sequelitus won't help. It should hit high single digits, probably around $9m for the 3-day and low teens for the 5-day. Total gross will be mid 20's.

8. Hacksaw Ridge
Mel Gibson's film is turning into quite the leggy sleeper. 3-day should be around $5.5m, with the total at $52m. Final gross looks to be about $65m. Very good numbers.

9. Almost Christmas
The ensemble comedy has been a little underwhelming. A weekend gross of about $5m will take it to $34m. Total will be around $45m. I'm sure that'll make it profitable, but I expected a little more.

10. Rules Don't Apply
I'm not sure why this is going wide right away. I have no idea if Warren Beatty has any box-office clout in him as I believe this is his first movie in 15 years. Three day should be under $5m and a final domestic total will be in the mid to high teens.

Last weekend saw the bombing of the three non-Potter related wide releases. Edge of Seventeen hopefully will have some legs but it was always going to be a film that found its audience in home viewing. Also, STX should've released it earlier in the year. Bleed For This went nowhere as expected, while Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk didn't even break a million. I didn't expect it to do that badly. Lee will rebound. He has before. Manchester By the Sea did terrific numbers in limited and will apparently be going wide in mid-December. This week, Lion and Miss Sloane both open in limited with expansions slated for December. The former could be a sleeper but I doubt the politically themed latter will have a decent mainstream run.


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