OSCAR PREDICTIONS (2nd of 2)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Sniper - Gone Girl - The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything - Whiplash

Alt: Wild

It's kind of sad what happened to Wild. It has pretty stellar reviews and very good box-office. The consensus seems to be that if it were about a man, it would be going over big. Whiplash was thought to be an original until about a few days ago, so maybe Wild still gets in.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman - Boyhood - Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel - Nightcrawler

Alt: Mr. Turner

This branch looooooves Mike Leigh. However, BAFTA barely touched Mr. Turner. 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall - The Judge

Ethan Hawke - Boyhood

Edward Norton - Birdman

Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher

JK Simmons - Whiplash

Alt: (uh...) Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice

Yeah, I really don't know anyone else who could get in here. If Nightcrawler is bigger than expected, then maybe Riz Ahmed? I really hope it's not Waltz. 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year

Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game

Emma Stone - Birdman

Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

Alt: Rene Russo - Nightcrawler

Big debate with myself over Chastain and Russo. Maybe they'll skip Meryl for once and give it to another actress over 60! Wouldn't that be something?

LEADING ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler

Michael Keaton - Birdman

David Oyelowo - Selma

Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

Alt: Steve Carell - Foxcatcher

Ralph Fiennes might be surging at the right time. It really depends on how strongly Selma hits with AMPAS. Bradley Cooper also might have sights set (har har).

LEADING ACTRESS

Jennifer Aniston - Cake

Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore - Still Alice

Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon - Wild

Alt: Amy Adams - Big Eyes

I know the Aniston nod is mostly wishful thinking at this point, but I can't let it go. It'll probably be Amy. (Poor Marion.)

DIRECTING

Clint Eastwood - American Sniper

Alejandro Inarritu - Birdman

Richard Linklater - Boyhood

Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ava Duvernay - Selma

Alt: Damien Chazelle - Whiplash

Or that Imitation Game guy. Or the Theory of Everything guy. I think Fincher's gone boy at this point.

BEST PICTURE

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. The Imitation Game

5. The Theory of Everything

6. Selma

7. American Sniper

8. Whiplash

9. Nightcrawler

10. Gone Girl

Alt: Foxcatcher

The smart thing to do might be to pick 9 nominations given that's how many there were in the past 3 years. But I'm going with 8.