Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Box: Take a post-Turkey nap with Chris Pine.

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
This disappointed last weekend, which means the doom and gloom of the summer box office is back in full force. If it stabilizes this holiday weekend and holds well over the next month, it will be the #1 movie of the year. However, there's now a very good chance Guardians of the Galaxy will be the year's top film. For the 3-day weekend, Mockingjay will hit the low 50's, with a total of around $225m. As long as it doesn't free fall after this weekend, it'll get to about $335m.

2. Penguins of Madagascar
I'm not sure there was much desire for this, as it's not like the penguins are anywhere near the fame level of the minions. A three day gross of about $35m, which the 5-day hitting just under $50m looks to be in store. Beyond that, I'd say Penguins will make $135m.

3. Horrible Bosses 2
And there might be even loss of a desire for this sequel. The 3-day might hit just over $20m, with another $10m between Wednesday and Thursday. Total looks to be in the high 60's, low 70's depending on word of mouth. Reviews are not good.

4. Big Hero 6
This might actually be #3 if Horrible underperforms. A 3-day gross in the high teens will get it to $165m total, which would put in on pace for $215m total. There are no animated films coming out for the rest of the year, which will help give this and Penguins some legs through the rest of the holidays.

5. Interstellar
After an underwhelming opening, this has somewhat recovered. It's doing terrific overseas. 3-day will be at about $11-12m, taking the total to the low 140s. A final domestic gross of about $165m looks about right.

6. Dumb and Dumber To
Just under $10m for the 3-day gets it to the mid 70's, finishing with about $95m when all is said and done. That's probably the best the studio could have hoped for.

7. The Theory of Everything
This expands wide, so a 3-day of about $4m looks in order. With awards buzz for its actors, it'll end up in the high 20's or low 30's by Oscar night.

8. Gone Girl
3-day at about $2m, but the real story is its staying power. It played in the top 5 for 8 weeks, making it the only film this year to do so. In fact, there's only been a handful of movies to do that in the past 5 years. Very impressive. Its total gross will be about $165m, unless it starts getting some awards talk outside of Pike's performance.

9. Beyond the Lights / Birdman / St. Vincent
Each will do about $1.5m for the 3-day. Birdman may be too strange for mainstream audiences, so it'll probably finish with about $25m. Beyond the Lights will get to about $16m by the end of its run, and St. Vincent will get to the mid 40's.

The Imitation Game begin its run in about 5 theaters, but I'm not sure what the expansion plans are. I'm guessing Weinstein will have it in wide release by Christmas Day. Probably a safe bet it'll outgross the current Oscar fare like Birdman and The Theory of Everything.

Worth noting: it's very odd to me that there are only two films opening wide, not counting the expansions. I think that's the smallest number for Thanksgiving weekend I can recall since I've started paying attention to box-office.

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