VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - Iron Man 3 - Oblivion - Pacific Rim
alt: Star Trek Into DarknessThe bakeoff was the above 6 plus Elysium, The Lone Ranger, Thor: The Dark World and World War Z. I've seen all these except The Lone Ranger so I hope that's not nominated so I can continue to avoid it.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
American Hustle - The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - Jackass presents Bad Grandpa
alt: The Lone RangerBakeoff was these 4 plus Dallas Buyers Club, Great Gatsby and Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters. Any three of the seven could make it, but I think all the buzz over American Hustle makes it the only lock. Tough category to predict!
ORIGINAL SONG:
"Let It Go" - Frozen
"Young and Beautiful" - The Great Gatsby
"The Moon Song" - Her
"Atlas" - The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
"Ordinary Love" - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
alt: "Amen" - All Is LostLOL I have no fucking clue. Frozen is locked and the winner, if it misses that would be the biggest snub this category has ever known. Which is surprisingly saying a lot. I just went with five of the most talked about nominees. They are going to throw in some random movie no one saw. Oscar nominee Lana Del Rey, everyone! (I'm listening to some of the longlist songs as I do these predix. The All Is Lost song is gorgeous!)
SOUND EDITING:
All Is Lost - Captain Phillips - Gravity - Lone Survivor - Rush
alt: FrozenOr some other blockbuster or 12 Years a Slave.
SOUND MIXING:
12 Years a Slave - Captain Phillips - Gravity - Inside Llewyn Davis - Lone Survivor
alt: FrozenOr some other blockbuster or Picture nominee.
ORIGINAL SCORE:
12 Years a Slave - The Book Thief - Gravity - Philomena - Saving Mr. Banks
alt: All Is LostLost won the Globe, and the lost Globe winner to not get an Oscar nod was Painted Veil back in 2006. All Is Lost has, however, very much underperformed all throughout the season.
COSTUME DESIGN:
12 Years a Slave - American Hustle - The Great Gatsby - The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - The Invisible Woman
alt: Oz the Great and PowerfulPossible Saving Mr. Banks, too.
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
12 Years a Slave - The Great Gatsby - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - Inside Llewyn Davis - Saving Mr. Banks
alt: GravityEveryone is predicting Gravity, and I probably should, too. But unlike Avatar and Life of Pi, I don't get how this guild will really be that impressed with space stations. Oblivion would be a more deserving sci-fi film to get this. American Hustle can probably get in here, too. Her would be a great nomination, but probably too much wishful thinking on that one.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
12 Years a Slave - Gravity - Inside Llewyn Davis - Nebraska - Prisoners
alt: Captain PhillipsASC noms were those 6 plus The Grandmaster.
FILM EDITING:
12 Years a Slave - American Hustle - Captain Phillips - Gravity - The Wolf of Wall Street
alt: RushThis one might be locked.
ANIMATED FEATURE:
Despicable Me 2 - Ernest and Celestine - Frozen - Monsters University - The Wind Rises
alt: The CroodsYup.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
20 Feet From Stardom - The Act of Killing - Blackfish - The Square - Stories We Tell
alt: Tim's VermeerWho would have thought years ago that Sarah Polley would have two Oscar noms and neither would be for acting?
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Broken Circle Breakdown - The Grandmaster - The Great Beauty - The Hunt - The Notebook
alt: OmarI put a lot of thought into this one, trust me.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
12 Years a Slave - Before Midnight - Captain Phillips - Philomena - The Wolf of Wall Street
alt: Blue Is the Warmest ColorMost have August: Osage County as the alt. I don't either Blue or August are making it in, as the lineup seems pretty set. That said, I could see Blue benefiting from the preferential balloting system.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
American Hustle - Blue Jasmine - Her - Inside Llewyn Davis - Nebraska
alt: GravityI think both screenplay lineups are set, which means one of them has a surprise for us.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl - Rush
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini - Enough Said
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
alt: Bradley Cooper - American HustleI just feel that there's enough sentiment to get James the nod. If anyone feels weak to me, it's Daniel Bruhl.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler
alt: Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
LEADING ACTOR:
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwitel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
alt: Robert Redford - All Is LostBruce, Chiwitel and Matthew are safe. Tom is probably in 4th. The Gatsby's are battling it out for that last slot.
LEADING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams - American Hustle
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
alt: Meryl Streep - August: Osage CountyLet me tell you right now how pissed I'm gonna be for believing the hype that Amy will get in over one of the old previous winners if she doesn't make it. Not because it fucks my predictions, but because she deserves it. Ugh. I do wonder if Blanchett is enough of a frontrunner that she can absorb the most #1 ballots allowing a surprise here. Like Adele or Brie Larson. It won't happen, though.
DIRECTING:
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street
alt: Alexander Payne - Nebraskaor Spike Jonze. The top 4 are locked, last slot might be up for grabs.
BEST PICTURE:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Nebraska
6. The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Her
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Saving Mr. Banks10. Inside Llewyn Davis
alt: Philomena
I'm predicting EIGHT Best Picture nominees.
Nomination Tally:
12 Years a Slave - 12
Gravity - 9
American Hustle - 8
Captain Phillips - 8
Nebraska - 5
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