Start with TV:
Supporting Actress:
Bisset - McTeer - Panettiere - Potter - Vergara
Probably the most open category of the entire night as any of them could win. Vergara's been nominated many times before and has never won, which would typically make one due. But the show's seen better days and people seem over it. Hayden was nominated last year, and I'd love to see her win. She gives the performance on Nashville that strikes the best balance between country drama and campy soap. Monica Potter was fantastic on what I've seen of Parenthood, and I'd love for her to take it, too. But the show is probably too small, though the NBC connection might help. I don't know what Dancing On the Edge is, so that leaves Janet McTeer. She's been nominated a few times before, and has won. I think she's probably the winner.
WINNER: Janet McTeer - The White Queen
(alt: Monica Potter - Parenthood)
Supporting Actor:
Charles - Lowe - Paul - Stoll - Voight
This is between Aaron Paul and Jon Voight. Voight on starfucking, Paul on the critical choice.
WINNER: Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
(alt: Jon Voight - Ray Donovan)
Actress - Miniseries/TV Movie:
Bonham-Carter - Ferguson - Lange - Mirren - Moss
Moss and Lange will duke it out. Lange won for American Horror Story before, and Top of the Lake had terrific reviews.
WINNER: Elisabeth Moss - Top of the Lake
(alt: Jessica Lange - American Horror Story: Coven)
Actor - Miniseries/TV Movie:
Damon - Douglas - Ejiofor - Elba - Pacino
WINNER: Michael Douglas - Behind the Candelabra
No alt, no commentary. Much as I'd love Matt to win, he was just as good as Michael.
Actress - Comedy/Musical:
Deschanel - Dunham - Falco - Louis-Dreyfus - Poehler
Julia should win this handily, unless they still really love Girls or really love their cohost Poehler.
WINNER: Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep
(alt: Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation)
Actor - Comedy/Musical:
Bateman - Cheadle - Fox - Parsons - Samberg
A lot of people are predicting Michael J. Fox, but I just feel this is Andy's. I guess they could go for Jim Parsons again.
WINNER: Andy Samberg - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
(alt: Michael J. Fox - The Michael J. Fox Show)
Actress - Drama:
Margulies - Maslany - Schilling - Washington - Wright
A case could be made for any of these, but I think the prize is probably Kerry's with Taylor and Tatiana having an outside shot. Taylor would have won if Orange had been submitted in Comedy. Washington made more sense as a winner last year, and she might be hurt by her show's buzz having cooled somewhat this season.
WINNER: Kerry Washington - Scandal
(alt: Tatiana Maslany - Orphan Black)
Actor - Drama:
Cranston - Schreiber - Sheen - Spacey - Spader
Between Cranston, Sheen and Spacey.
WINNER: Kevin Spacey - House of Cards
(alt: Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad)
Miniseries/TV Movie:
AHS: Coven - Behind the Candelabra - Dancing On the Edge - Top of the Lake - The White Queen
WINNER: Behind the Candelabra
(alt: Top of the Lake)
Comedy/Musical:
Big Bang Theory - Brooklyn Nine-Nine - Girls - Modern Family - Parks and Recreation
Ugh, Orange Is the New Black would have won this easily.
WINNER: Girls
(alt: The Big Bang Theory)
Drama:
Breaking Bad - Downton Abbey - The Good Wife - House of Cards - Masters of Sex
It seems very un-HFPA to give Breaking Bad the award after it's off the air. I guess the huge buzz of The Good Wife could carry it to a victory, or even House of Cards.
WINNER: Breaking Bad
(alt: House of Cards)
FILM!!!!
Song:
Hunger Games - Frozen - Mandela - Llewyn Davis - One Chance
I'm ready for Taylor Swift Eyeroll: Part 2.
WINNER: "Let It Go" - Frozen
(alt: "Please Mr. Kennedy" - Inside Llewyn Davis")
Score:
12 Years a Slave - All Is Lost - The Book Thief - Gravity - Mandela
Between Book Thief, Gravity and Slave.
WINNER: 12 Years a Slave
(alt: Gravity)
Animated Feature:
The Croods - Despicable Me 2 - Frozen
WINNER: Frozen
(alt: Despicable Me 2)
Foreign Language Film:
Blue Is the Warmest Color - The Great Beauty - The Hunt - The Past - The Wind Rises
WINNER: Blue Is the Warmest Color
(alt: The Hunt)
Actor in a Supporting Role:
Abdi - Bruhl - Cooper - Fassbender - Leto
WINNER: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
(alt: Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave)
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Hawkins - Lawrence - Nyong'o - Roberts - Squibb
I wouldn't rule out J.Ro, but this is between Jennifer and Lupita. Whoever wins the SAG wins the Oscar.
WINNER: Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
(alt: Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave)
Screenplay:
12 Years a Slave - American Hustle - Her - Nebraska - Philomena
David O. Russell finally wins.
WINNER: American Hustle
(alt: Her)
Actor - Comedy/Musical:
Bale - Dern - Dicaprio - Isaac - Phoenix
WINNER: Bruce Dern - Nebraska
(alt: Leonardo Dicaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street)
Actress - Comedy/Musical:
Adams - Delpy - Gerwig - Louis-Dreyfus - Streep
Between Amy and Meryl. Amy hasn't yet won, so she narrowly defeats Meryl.
WINNER: Amy Adams - American Hustle
(alt: Meryl Streep - August: Osage County)
Actor - Drama:
Ejiofor - Elba - Hanks - McConaughey - Redford
This is one to pay attention to. Chiwetel and Matthew - Matt makes the most sense for the Globes but Ejiofor shows how strong Slave is. Hmm, this might be the only film category where I'm taking a risk.
WINNER: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
(alt: Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave)
Actress - Drama:
Blanchett - Bullock - Dench - Thompson - Winslet
Duh.
WINNER: Cate Blanchett
No alt.
Director:
McQueen - Russell - Greengrass - Cuaron - Payne
Between Steve and Alfonso, though if David pulls it off he might take the Oscar, too.
WINNER: Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
(alt: Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave)
Film - Comedy/Musical
American Hustle - Her - Inside Llewyn Davis - Nebraska - Wolf of Wall Street
WINNER: American Hustle
(alt: Nebraska)
Film - Drama:
12 Years a Slave - Captain Phillips - Gravity - Philomena - Rush
WINNER: 12 Years a Slave
(alt: Gravity)
The film winners were much easier to predict than the TV winners. Last year, I didn't do too hot in film winners going 7/14. Ouch. I think I'll do better this year.
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