Tuesday, December 11, 2012

SAGdix

Taye Diggs and Busy Phillips will announce the Screen Actors Guild nominations tomorrow morning on TBS & TNT at 8:50AM Eastern.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Beasts of the Southern Wild is totally ineligible here.  No nominations.

MALE ACTOR IN LEADING ROLE:
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight
Alt: Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
This is the category I'm most confident in.  This is the likely Oscar lineup, as well.  I think Phoenix and not Cooper is the weak link. 

MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike
Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
I think Tommy, thus far, is the only genuine lock here.  Matthew is probably safe.  Hoffman is less secure, a lot will depend on how they responded to the film.  Arkin is probably shakiest here.  I have Leo as the alt because I have no idea how much of their nomination committee has seen Django, and he has internal competition with Samuel L. Jackson.  (Waltz was placed in leading.)  Michael Pena could show, and if he does I think he'll make the Oscar lineup.  As for Les Miserables, Eddie Redmayne will make it in before Russell Crowe.  But unless the film goes over huge with SAG, I don't see either making it in.  Perks of Being a Wallflower has had a strong run so far, so maybe Ezra Miller has a shot.  Javier Bardem, but if he makes it in Judi Dench probably will, too.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Amy Adams - The Master
Ann Dowd - Compliance
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Alt: Samantha Barks - Les Miserables
Lots of potential alternates here.  Maggie Smith for Marigold Hotel, Judi Dench for Skyfall, Emma Watson for Perks, Amanda Seyfried for Les Mis, Kelly Reilly for Flight, Kerry Washington for Django, Rosemarie DeWitt for Your Sister's Sister.  Cross your fingers for Nicole Kidman peeing on Zac Efron in The Paperboy!

FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Alt: Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
I think this is what everyone is predicting, with Quevenzhane Wallis being out.  I'm not entirely sold on Riva or Watts.  Rachel Weisz could get in, maybe Judi Dench for Marigold.

CAST:
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt: Moonrise Kingdom
I really want to put Moonrise in, but I just can't shake Thirty.  If it is winning Best Picture, it should be here.  Les Miserables is safe, even with the dismal reviews.  Silver Linings could sit it out.  I think Argo and Lincoln are the strongest.  Django is really the only other film I could see making it.  Some are predicting Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, but I highly doubt it.

As for TV, go Amy Poehler!  She hasn't been nominated yet?!?!?!

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