Friday, December 14, 2012

Predictions Scores

SAG:
Male Lead - 4/5 (+alt)
Female Lead - 4/5 (+alt)
Supporting Male - 4/5
Supporting Female - 3/5
Cast - 4/5

19/25 = 76%

GLOBES:
Drama Picture - 5/5
Comedy/Musical Picture - 4/5
Actor Drama - 5/5
Actress Drama - 3/5 (+alt)
Actor Comedy/Musical - 3/5 (+alt)
Actress Comedy/Musical - 3/5 (+alt)
Supporting Actor - 3/5 (+alt)
Supporting Actress - 4/5 (+alt)
Director - 4/5
Screenplay - 5/5
Original Song - 3/5
Original Score - 4/5 (+alt)
Foreign Language Film - 4/5
Animated Feature - 4/5

54/70 = 77%

Not my best, I usually prefer to be 80%+.  But at least I didn't get any 2/5. 

As for the actual races themselves, I'd say..

Guilds for Directors, Producers and Writers haven't been announced. 

I think Director will be Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg locked.  Lee, Tarantino, Haneke, Russell and Hooper vying for the last 2 slots.  The guilds and BAFTA will clear that up.

Actor: Cooper, Day-Lewis, Hawkes, Phoenix, Washington
Phoenix gets in based on the strength of being #1 on ballots, which will edge Jackman out.

Actress: Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence, Wallis, Watts
Riva needed SAG, if she shows up at BAFTA that would help.  However, I think Mirren has the best shot at spoiling that lineup.

Supporting Actor: Arkin, De Niro, DiCaprio, Hoffman, Jones
So this ended up being the hardest category.  BAFTA will help, no doubt, but I think it will still be up in the air until the last minute.  I never thought I'd say this but I'm going to be sad when Matthew McConaughey ISN'T nominated.  :-( 

Supporting Actress: Field, Hathaway, Hunt, Kidman, Smith
I can't believe Kidman is actually going to happen.  The first three are safe, with Nicole, Maggie and Amy Adams and Ann Dowd vying for the last 2 slots.  Ann really needed the SAG nod, Amy did not.

PICTURE
1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Argo
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Les Miserables
6. Life of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. Amour
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
10. The Master


That's what I'll say now for that category.  I doubt the PGA will be much help.  I'll also go ahead and predict the top 6 as the Best Picture nominees.  Just 6. 

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