Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Box: Unchained

The box-office was jump started in a big way thanks to a huge Christmas Day.

Here are Tuesday's grosses. 

Simply marvelous for Les Miserables and Django Unchained.  However, I fully expect both to be very frontloaded enough for The Hobbit to reclaim its #1 position.  Parental Guidance also enjoyed a nice opening, and will have huge legs given it has no real competion until the middle of February.  Studios weren't very smart with their January schedules.  Almost all releases are R-rated.

Here's how I think this upcoming weekend will pan out.

I'm doing this a little different, because a lot depends on how the rest of the week days.

1. The Hobbit - low 30's
This should finish with just about $300 million. 

2. Les Miserables - mid to high 20's
3. Django Unchained - low to mid 20's
Both should cross $100m with ease.  Both will also contribute to a a pretty profitable Oscar Best Picture lineup.
 
4. Parental Guidance - high teens
Again, it has no real competion for about 6 weeks.  It has a shot at $100m, performing like a mini-Cheaper By the Dozen.

5. Jack Reacher - mid to high teens
Should finish just shy of $100m, if not slightly over.

6. This Is 40 - low teens
It'll hit 70m, possibly 75m.

7. Lincoln, The Guild Trip, Monsters Inc - all between 6-7m
Lincoln will have no trouble getting to $150m at this point, and further will depend on how much of an Oscar nomination bump it gets.  The Guilt Trip and Monsters Inc will both go to around $30m.  Kinda disappointing for both.

10. Rise of the Guardians - 6m
Enough of a bump to get it to $100m.  It might be able to stick around for a bit because outside of Parental Guidance, it has no competition.

Silver Linings had a decent expansion, doubling its theater count.  Word of mouth has kept up with the film, and it will probably see another expansion on January 11.  I think it could finish in the low 70's.  The slow and steady expansion payed off in the end.  Life of Pi saw a decent Christmas bounce, and also has a chance at $100m.  That will depend how much of a dent it makes on Oscar nomination morning. 

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