OSCAR PREDIX!

I'm just saying this. I'll regret it Tuesday.

Look to the films people feel passionately about. Even if its a small group, it just might be enough.

Melancholia, Margaret, A Separation, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Take Shelter, Tree of Life, Weekend and Drive to name a few. And, yes, those Bridesmaids.

Why are they important?

If there's one thing I can tell about this year's Oscar race, it is that there is a lack of passion. The Artist will probably win Best Picture, and Hugo and The Descendants will probably be nominated. The Help clearly has the support of actors, Midnight in Paris is Woody's biggest hit ever, and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo has had a nice surge in recent weeks. Almost all of these films could get nominated any year, but they all feel like also-rans. Films that get nominated, but don't win. They all feel safe. This is why I feel that there's a chance in almost every single category to have a nomination come along that's a genuine surprise.

It's been a fun award season so far, with no lineup really set in stone. Let's hope the Academy provides us with some fun picks, rather than just the same old Oscar bait.

VISUAL EFFECTS:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Tree of Life
Alt: Captain America: The First Avenger
Only ten options thanks to the bakeoff.

SOUND MIXING:
The Artist
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Alt: War Horse

SOUND EDITING:
Adventures of Tin Tin
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Alt: Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Basically, any action movie, animated feature or big summer movie could show up here. Hanna, interestingly enough, also has a decent shot. No pun intended. These two categories, of all the categories, are sort of like drawing lottery numbers. Usually, 3 or 4 films show up in both.

MAKEUP:
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
Alt: Hugo
Bakeoffs aren't very helpful here because even with the narrowed down field, any of the films listed could make it.

MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG:
"Lay Your Head Down" - Albert Nobbs
"Star Spangled Man" - Captain America: The First Avenger
"Hello Hello" - Gnomeo and Juliet
"The Living Proof" - The Help
"Life's a Happy Song" - The Muppets
Alt: "Pictures In My Head" - The Muppets
Another crapshoot. I think only the songs from The Muppets and The Help are safe.

MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Alt: Adventures of Tin Tin
Safe choices. Almost everyone else has this exact 5.

ART DIRECTION:
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Alt: Midnight in Paris
I think Paris is going to show up in one of the non-major eight categories. I'm just not confident in which one.

COSTUME DESIGN:
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week With Marilyn
Alt: Anonymous
Jane actually seems on the verge of showing up in three categories (here, art direction and score) but its safest bet is here.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alt: War Horse
I just know Horse is getting nominated. I KNOW it is. I decided to be risky, but I know War Horse is getting nominated.

FILM EDITING:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Alt: War Horse
If The Descendants wants to make a legit play for Picture, it MUST show up here.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Bill Cunningham New York
Buck
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Project Nim
We Were Here
Alt: Hell and Back Again

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
A Separation
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
Pina
Alt: Bullhead
Yeah, I'm confident in about 3 of the Docs and 2 of the Foreign Films. Wild guess for the rest.

ANIMATED FEATURE:
Adventures of Tin Tin
Arthur Christmas
Chico & Rita
Puss-In-Boots
Rango
Alt: Kung Fu Panda 2
I don't care about anything here other than them NOT nominating Cars 2.

THE BIG 8:

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alt: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Tattoo is just on the edge of defeating Tinker for that 5th slow. Hugo and The Help aren't totally safe, as Drive or Ides of March could wind up here.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
50/50
The Artist
A Separation
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Alt: Win Win
Or Beginners or Tree of Life or Young Adult or Margin Call or a few others. Basically, every indie dramedy is up for this award?

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks - Drive
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Alt: Ben Kingsley - Hugo
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Corey Stoll, Armie Hammer, Jim Broadbent, Viggo Mortensen, Brad Pitt (Tree of Life), Robert Forster, Max Von Sydow, Patton Oswalt, who else? The category is the one where the big Oscar morning shocker will most likely occur.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Alt: Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
Okay, McTeer and Woodley are neck and neck for that last slot. Woodley missed the SAG & BAFTA nod and all her buzz seems to have died a few weeks after the film opened. Another big morning shocker would be Chastain getting in for another film, or missing altogether. I think the only other viable alternative for this category would be Carey Mulligan, but even she is competing against herself - Shame vs. Drive.

DIRECTING:
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick - Tree of Life
Alt: David Fincher - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Ugh. The concensus for the 5th slot is Malick. Fincher, Winding-Refn, Spielberg, Taylor and Miller could also show based on the strength of their films. I'm not confident in Malick, but I'm not really sure about any one of the alts.

ACTOR:
George Clooney - The Descendants
Leondardo Dicaprio - J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Alt: Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Dicap is the weak link, let's hope. Ryan Gosling is also a contender, but he's competing against himself.

ACTRESS:
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk about Kevin
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
Alt: Rooney Mara - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Ugh, Glenn Close. Mara might make it in based on the buzz of her film being at its apex when ballots went out. That being said, its disgusting and very amusing how many people will do a happy dance if Glenn Close doesn't make it. We can all agree that film was made for no other purpose than getting her an Oscar. Let's hope Elizabeth Olsen, Kirsten Dunst, Kristen Wiig or Charlize Theron can kick her out. Also, one thing I didn't mention in supporting actress was the possibility of Bejo being in lead. She apparently is actually lead (Bafta put her there), so there's a shot.

PICTURE:
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE HELP
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
6. MONEYBALL
7. THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
8. WAR HORSE
9. THE TREE OF LIFE
10. DRIVE
Alt: Bridesmaids
Predicted # of Best Picture Nominees: 7
Remember how this works? There's going to be between 5 and 10 nominees, depending on how many films get 5% of the #1's. Or something. I will say to watch out for A Separation showing up in Picture & Directing if it goes over big. That would probably be my NO GUTS NO GLORY for Tuesday morning.

I have Hugo and The Artist tied with 11 nominations each.

My goal is 75% accuracy overall. 10/10 in the female acting categories - I DID IT LAST YEAR!!! - at least completed accuracy in 4/8 of the major categories. Good luck me!

And if I could secure one nomination, I would make Kristen Wiig an Oscar-nominee. Actress or screenplay. Just nominate her, Academy!