Pre-Majors Oscar Dix

Busy week.

We've got BFCA on Tuesday.
SAG noms on Wednesday.
Golden Globe noms on Thursday.

By the end of Thursday morning, we'll more or less know most of the acting nominees. I doubt BAFTA (announcing in early January) will throw any curveballs, but one never knows. I say most because it seems in every category we have 3 locks, followed by a handful of people vying for the last 2 slots. I suspect Chastain is in for The Help, but it would be fun if each org chose her for a different film. And by fun I mean frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that for the past four years, someone has gotten an acting Oscar nomination with little to no precursor support.

2007 - Jones (Elah) and Linney (Savages)
2008 - Shannon (Revolutionary)
2009 - Gyllenhaal (Crazy)
2010 - Bardem (Biutiful)

I might do another set after most of the guilds, but most likely this will be the only set of Oscar predictions I do until the day before nominations are announced.

SAG and Globe predix the night before their respective noms are announced.

Last year, my early December dix were pretty good. Here they are. Picture - 9/10. Actor, Actress, Supp Actor, both screenplays - 4/5. Supporting Actress - 5/5. Directing - 3/5. I don't think I'll be anywhere near as close this year.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

PICTURE:
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE
HUGO
WAR HORSE
6. Midnight in Paris
7. The Help
8. Moneyball
9. The Tree of Life
10. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I'll predict 7 nominations!

DIRECTING:
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Stephen Daldry - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life

ACTOR:
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt - Moneyball

ACTRESS:
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Albert Brooks - Drive
Ben Kingsley - Hugo
Patton Oswalt - Young Adult
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Vanessa Redgrave - Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shaileene Woodley - The Descendants

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
50/50
A SEPARATION
THE ARTIST
MARGIN CALL
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
THE DESCENDANTS
EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE
HUGO
MONEYBALL
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY