Box Office: Mara Christmas

This is a very tricky couple of days at the box-office. Three movies open on Wednesday, one on Friday and two on Saturday. Throw in that Christmas Day falls on a Sunday, and the day after will probably be the biggest day of the holidays. Rather than my typical estimates, I'm just going to do some rough ones.

All 3-day grosses are Friday through Sunday.

1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocal
The performance of this film in IMAX made everyone take notice. It seems sort of odd that this could be the highest grosser of December. But I guess that makes sense given the crazy box office year this has been.
3-day: $28 million
Projected Final Gross: $200 million

2. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The books and original Sweedish films were huge, and I've loved the way they've dealt with the dark subject matter in the advertising (the feel bad movie of Christmas!).
3-day: $24 million
Projected Final Gross: $150 million

3. Adventures of Tin Tin
The weekday performance of this for next week will be where it makes most of its money. It should be 3D-proof and be one of the few films people want to see in the format.
3-day: $20 million
Projected Final Gross: $115 million

4. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
A somewhat disappointing opening (called it!), but keep in mind last year's Tron: Legacy opened to the same amount and made about $170 million when all was said and done. An A- from Cinemascore is a big help, and if you don't like Tom Cruise, this is the only action picture in the market.
3-day: $19 million
Projected Final Gross: $175 million

5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked
I think the opening for this is a bigger thud than Sherlock, but no one cares. In the end, this will still do enough for another installment. It is still quite a sharp dropoff from the last one.
3-day: $15 million
Projected Final Gross: $125 million

6. We Bought a Zoo
Fox has held numerous sneak peeks to build buzz for this, but in the end it'll be a modest performer at best. The family audiences that don't have pre-schoolers will probably be going to Tin Tin or the PG-13 fare.
3-day: $10 million
Projected Final Gross: $60 million

7. War Horse
People love horse movies and people love Spielberg-schmaltz. So win win? No names other than the director will only be a small challenge.
1-day: $5 million
Projected Final Gross: $100 million

8. New Year's Eve
This'll have a nice bump next weekend.
3-day: $3.5 million
Projected Final Gross: $50 million

9. The Darkest Hour
Terrible movies like this have an odd way of doing okay on Christmas Day. (See Black Christmas, Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem - better yet, don.t)
1-day: $3 million
Projected Final Gross: $25 million

10. Young Adult
There's about 5 or 6 movies that could land here, but I went with this one just cuz.
3-day: $2.5 million
Projected Final Gross: $20 million

The Artist also finally makes a significant expansion to 170-ish theatres. It'll be a good barometer of whether or not the film will connect with more mainstream audiences after a slightly sluggish start.