Breakdown of the Top 8

Supporting Actor:
1. Christian Bale - 38% chance of winning
2. Geoffrey Rush - 36%
3. Mark Ruffalo - 12%
4. John Hawkes - 8%
5. Jeremy Renner - 6%

Supporting Actress:
1. Melissa Leo - 25%
2. Hailee Steinfeld - 24%
3. Helena Bonham Carter - 22%
4. Amy Adams - 18%
5. Jacki Weaver - 11%

Leading Actor:
1. Colin Firth - 64%
2. James Franco - 14%
3. Jesse Eisenberg - 12%
4. Javier Bardem - 8%
5. Jeff Bridges - 2%

Leading Actress:
1. Natalie Portman - 42%
2. Annette Bening - 28%
3. Jennifer Lawrence - 14%
4. Michelle Williams - 12%
5. Nicole Kidman - 4%

Original Screenplay:
1. King's Speech - 52%
2. Inception - 18%
3. Kids Are All Right - 15%
4. The Fighter - 10%
5. Another Year - 5%

Adapted Screenplay:
1. Social Network - 70%
2. Toy Story 3 - 10%
3. Winter's Bone - 9%
4. True Grit - 6%
5. 127 Hours - 5%

Directing:
1. David Fincher - 38%
2. Tom Hooper - 35%
3. David O. Russell - 10%
4. Darren Aronofsky - 9%
5. Joel and Ethan Coen - 8%

Picture:
1. The King's Speech - 25%
2. The Social Network - 21%
3. True Grit - 13%
4. The Fighter - 12%
5. Toy Story 3 - 10%
6. Inception - 8%
7. Black Swan - 5%
8. Winter's Bone - 3%
9. The Kids Are All Right - 2%
10. 127 Hours - 1%