Just think, next year at this time, I'll be predicting the Olsen twins' young sister to be a nominee! Wild! I won't offer much commentary on the techs. My goal is minimum 4/5 in each category, over 80% altogether.
SOUND MIXING:
Black Swan - Inception - The Town - Tron: Legacy - True Grit
Alt - Toy Story 3
SOUND EDITING:
Inception - Iron Man 2 - Toy Story 3 - Tron: Legacy - Unstoppable
Alt - How to Train Your Dragon
It's possible for Black Swan to show up in both, and I wouldn't be surprised with The Social Network showing up in mixing.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Alice In Wonderland - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 - Inception - Iron Man 2 - Tron: Legacy
Alt - Hereafter
The only remaining film from the bakeoff is Scott Pilgrim. That would be too awesome.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" - Burlesque
"I See The Light" - Tangled
"We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3
"Shine" - Waiting for 'Superman'
Alt - "Coming Home" - Country Strong
Possible for 2 Burlesque or 2 Country Strong songs to make it in. This category is a little too arbitrary sometimes.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
127 Hours - How to Train Your Dragon - Inception - The King's Speech - The Social Network
Alt - The Ghost Writer
I'd LURVE Ghost Writer to get a nom here. Never Let Me Go is also a possibility. Who knows which one of these they'll randomly disqualify by tomorrow. The music brand needs serious revisions! Did you hear me, AMPAS?
BEST MAKEUP:
Alice In Wonderland - Barney's Version - The Wolfman
Alt - True Grit
Alice and Wolfman are safe. That remaining slot is a gamble. Mabye Fighter for the showy hairstyles. MTV Girl for Life! I went with Barney because it apparently has old people makeup. The makeup branch LOVES old people makeup.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Alice In Wonderland - Black Swan - Burlesque - The King's Speech - True Grit
Alt - The Tempest
Everyone is predicting Tempest, but I'm not feeling it. Which means it'll happen, of course. I don't think there's a surprise lurking here unless they go more modern and throw The Fighter or Inception in. Or even Tron?
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Alice In Wonderland - Inception - The King's Speech - Shutter Island - True Grit
Alt - Black Swan
Ugh, Alice In Wonderland will be nominated for four Oscars. What a shitfest. Swan has been nominated here at several other award shows, and while the use of black and white is clever, AMPAS has always been of the "more is better" school. So, again, maybe Tron?
BEST FILM EDITING:
127 Hours - Black Swan - The Fighter - Inception - The Social Network
Alt - True Grit
I don't see why King's Speech would show up here. But given its almost-frontrunner status, it probably will. Nevertheless, I'll be brave and ignore it. I think the only nomination potentional-Picture-nominee The Town deserves is here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Black Swan - Inception - Shutter Island - The Social Network - True Grit
Alt - The King's Speech
Mabye 127 Hours?
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Biutiful - Dogtooth - In a Better World - Incendies - Life Above All
Alt - Confessions
Like the music branch, this branch is really inconsistent and kinda braindead. So anything goes.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Exit Through the Gift Shop - Inside Job - Restrepo - The Tillman Story - Waiting for 'Superman'
Alt - Client 9
I really hope Exit makes it in. Not many are predicting it because of it possibly being a hoax. I think that just makes it even better.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
How to Train Your Dragon - The Illusionist - Toy Story 3
Alt - Tangled
Feeling confident here. Then again, they snubbed The Simpsons Movie in favor of Surfs Up.
On to the big leagues...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
127 Hours - The Social Network - Toy Story 3 - True Grit - Winter's Bone
Alt - The Town
Of all the top 8 categories, this one I feel is set in stone. 127 is the potential weakling, depending on how much they go for the film. That's followed by True Grit, if they get sick of the Coens. Hopefully, The Ghost Writer can surprise.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Black Swan - Blue Valentine - Inception - The Kids Are All Right - The King's Speech
Alt - The Fighter
Kids, King's and Inception should be in. Most are predicting that trio, along with Black Swan and The Fighter. Something about the lineup just doesn't feel right. I went with Swan over Fighter because the latter feels more like an actor's movie. They're going to throw in a non-Picture nominee, and given the writers branch being favorable to indies the past couple of years, I'm going with Blue. (I just Blue myself.) Mike Leigh is a potential spoiler nominee for Another Year. In fact, I think that is more likely than Fighter. But, you know, play it safe. *fingers crossed for Nicole Holofcener!*
BEST DIRECTING:
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David Fincher - The Social Network
Joel & Ethan Coen - True Grit
Alt - David O. Russell - The Fighter
I'm about the last person still predicting the Coens to make it in here. Everyone has swapped them for Russell. Its not that I think David O. has pissed too many people off or am sidelining his redemption. Dunno, just not feeling it. I'll regret it in the morning.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Alt - Jeremy Renner - The Town
Bale and Rush are in. Next - Ruffalo, maybe. I went with Hawkes just because he feels like that veteran that usually gets in here. Or is that Ruffalo? Or maybe Sam Rockwell for Conviction? Or Michael Douglas gets a sentimental nomination? I guess if they gave Penelope Cruz a nom the year after she won, its possible for Renner to repeat.
BEST ACTOR:
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Alt - Robert Duvall - Get Low
Let me first say I'll cut a bitch if Jesse doesn't get nominated. Secondly, its really sad that Leo never got any traction for two of his best in Shutter Island and Inception. But they nominated him for that POS Blood Diamond? As for Bardem, well, he's been the VIP guest at how many screenings thrown by famous friends like Julia Roberts and Sean Penn? You want Penn and Roberts in your corner, and that should help him secure that last spot from the likes of Duvall, Mark Wahlberg or Ryan Gosling.
BEST ACTRESS & SUPPORTING ACTRESS.
I'll do these together with commentary first. This is a big clusterfuck and I think these are easily the most anticipated categories of the morning. This is nowhere near 2006 where both we're set long before Oscar morning. There's three big problems being thrown in here: Lesley Manville and Hailee Steinfeld and "cateogry fraud." At the start of the season, it seemed like Manville would not only be a leading nominee, but she had potential to win. As of this writing, she's only received a nod from BAFTA in supporting. Everyone who has seen the film is said to have loved her, but even they can't decide where she should be placed. Then, we have Hailee. Everyone who knows a thing about movies says its a crime she's being placed in supporting. She has more screentime than Jeff! But, she's a teenager and a total newcomer and Jeff's role is iconic, therefore she's supporting. (Awards bodies' mentality, not mine.) That's where she was nominated in most critics awards, as well as the Critics Choice and SAG. BAFTA placed her in lead, and she received a nod there. She was categorized as lead from the Globes, but didn't get nominated. Though that had more to do with their hatred for the film, it still didn't help. Now, AMPAS smartly put Kate Winslet in leading for The Reader after BAFTA did, despite her being nominated everywhere else in supporting. Similarly - and this is the best comparison - Keisha Castle Hughes was campaigned everywhere and got a SAG nod in supporting for Whale Rider, but AMPAS (smartly) nominated her in lead. Now, why does all this matter? Because in both categories, we have 3 nominees who appear to be safe, and then about 5-6 ladies trying to grab the remaining slots. It doesn't help when you have not one but two ladies who could show up in either category. Its only a small bit of help that Julianne Moore was campaigned from the start as leading in The Kids Are All Right and she was nominated there from BAFTA and the Globes. This might explain why everyone is suddently predicting her as that fifth actress, because - hey! - at least we know where she belongs.
For supporting actress, the two Fighter women and the Queen Mum look safe. Next up, Jacki Weaver. It seemed like she would be the critics darling, but she was only nominated at the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes after winning the NBR. She has the advantage of having the (large and growing) Australian film community behind her in a big way. Cate Blanchett won't shut up about her. And her film was the first FYC of the season, and whatever is usually gets a nomination. I'm predicting her. Next up, we have the supporting women of Black Swan - Mila Kunis and Barbara Hershey. Mila was nominated by the Critics Choice, SAG and Golden Globes. Her ubiquity is a huge plus, and she's been steadily working since ending That 70's Show. Most will say that her role is little more than a sex bomb. Honestly, I have no idea if that helps her or hurts her. LOL. Hershey, nominated only by BAFTA, has the more traditionally nominated role. Unlike The Fighter women, I think Mila and Barbara will cancel each other out. Finally, given that for the past 3 years, we've seen nominees in acting categories that got very little to no precursor attention, here's hoping Ghost Writer's Olivia Williams might just pull a Michael Shannon/Maggie Gyllenhaal/Tommy Lee Jones/Laura Linney.
For leading actress, Portman and Bening have nothing to worry about. Jennifer Lawrence is almost there, though she missed the BAFTA nom. One of the more disappointing aspects of this award season is how little the press seems interested in her. She's playing Mystique in the next X-Men movie, and she's hot as fuck for Christ's sakes. But, you know OMG NATALIE PREGNANCY. You'd think they want to catch the NEXT BIG THING just before it happens. In fourth is Nicole Kidman. Overdue for her third nom, she just might not get that call tomorrow morning. Sadly. She missed at BAFTA and some think she was probably barely in for SAG. (In the past, they didn't seem to like her.) As the days approached tomorrow's announcement, she started disappearing from some predictions. There's a comparison to Angelina Jolie in A Mighty Heart that might end up being true. Her film seems to have very little support outside her performance. However, I don't feel there's a strong enough replacement for her. She may not have ecstatic supporters for this performance, but it should be broad. And then we get to that last slot. EW has gone with Michelle Williams. Many others have too, as its Blue Valentine's best shot at a major nom and I think everyone is starting to acknowledge that Michelle just might be the actress of her generation. If she's not in this year, she has two major films next year that should get there. If they aren't saying Michelle, they're saying Julianne. But, there's still some more ladies lurking in the wings. Hilary Swank scored a (surprise!) SAG nod, and I'm sure the press will have fun pitting her against Annette again while ignoring Jennifer and not shutting up about baby Black Swan. Lastly, while everyone is drooling in anticipation over those pics of Rooney Mara as The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, the original actress - Noomi Rapace - showed up in both BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards. She reportedly hired Marion Cotillard's publicist, and has been the topic of many magazine articles as she's about to hit Hollywood in a big way: starring in the Sherlock Holmes sequel and an Alien prequel. As for Halle Berry, she should be lucky she got the Globe nod. Her film was recently pulled from the release schedule, so even she gave up on it.
So here we go:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
Alt - Mila Kunis - Black Swan
BEST ACTRESS:
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Alt - Noomi Rapace - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
And finally...
BEST PICTURE:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Alt - The Town
I think 8 are safe, and 127, Winter's and The Town are fighting for the last 2 slots. Last year felt a little more open, with 2-3 on the outside looking in. But last year also gave us Best Picture Nominee The Blind Side. I don't know what the equivalent would be for this year? Secretariat? Or maybe all those screenings Julia and Sean were shoving down peoples throats will get Biutiful a nod? And I do wonder if they keep this 10 nominees up, how long will it be before a film scores a nom for Best Picture and nothing else.
Good luck with your dix!
LOL - It took me forever to publish this. I didn't want to make it official. Ugh, everyone is now putting Steinfeld in lead. Such a clusterfuck. I don't think I've ever had such difficulty predicting the acting categories. I'm not terribly confidant in any of them. Ah well...
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