SAG DIX!

Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Alt: Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
Pretty confident in these. Wahlberg could show up.

Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Alt: Julianne Moore - Te Kids Are All Right
I guess Halle Berry might have a shot here. Lesley Manville's biggest roadblock is that SPC hasn't sent out screeners and has the release date so late. Michelle's advantage is that her film played at Sundance and BV seems like the type of movie actors love. Something else on the mind is that SAG doesn't seem to like Nicole Kidman very much, which could work to Julianne Moore's advantage.

Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Alt - John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
I was predicting Hawkes (instead of Renner) for the longest time, but Jeremy has shown up just about everywhere he needs to and has is as much of an industry vet as someone under 40 can be. Also: Sam Rockwell. Conviction seems like one of those random movies that do well here.

Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
Alt: Mila Kunis - Black Swan
If there is an out of nowhere surprise, it'll be here. Maybe.

Ensemble:
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Alt - Winter's Bone
With Inception just barely being my Alt, I'm not so certain about The King's Speech. I haven't heard much about the non-Firth/Carter/Rush actors, if there even are any. Could be a Michael Clayton situation where 3 actors get nominated but the ensemble doesn't.

As for TV, once again: Community and Parks and Recreation. Make it happen, SAG. Two of the best ensembles on TV!