VISUAL EFFECTS:
Dune - Free Guy - No Time To Die - Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings - Spider-Man: No Way Home
While Spider-Man might be the biggest and most loved movie of ALL TIMEZ OMG, DUNE should safely win this.
SOUND:
Belfast - Dune - No Time To Die - The Power of the Dog - West Side Story
Musicals can't be ruled out here, but this is probably another win for DUNE.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG:
"Down to Joy" - Belfast
"Dos Oruguitas" - Encanto
"Somehow You Do" - Four Good Days
"Be Alive" - King Richard
"No Time To Die" - No Time To Die
Billie Eilish's NO TIME TO DIE has won everything else, and it'll be the third Bond song in a row to win. Crazy, though Lin-Manuel Miranda has it if they are over the Bond songs.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE:
Don't Look Up - Dune - Encanto - Parallel Mothers - The Power of the Dog
Encanto and Dog will put up a strong fight, but DUNE will prevail.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Coming 2 America - Cruella - Dune - Eyes of Tammy Faye - House of Gucci
The makeup of EYES OF TAMMY FAYE is divisive. I still think it wins, though Dune or Gucci could be the benefactors if voters find the televangelist too garish.
Dune - Nightmare Alley - Power of the Dog - Tragedy of Macbeth - West Side Story
Alley is very showy and could upset, but DUNE looks to continue its mini-sweep.
COSTUME DESIGN:
Cruella - Cyrano - Dune - Nightmare Alley - West Side Story
This looks to be CRUELLA's to lose.
FILM EDITING:
Don't Look Up - Dune - King Richard - Power of the Dog - Tick Tick Boom
A toughie, truthfully any of these could take it. Richard has the tennis sequences, but I'm expecting DUNE to narrowly beat it.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Dune - Nightmare Alley - Power of the Dog - Tragedy of Macbeth - West Side Story
This is probably Power's best shot at a tech victory, but DUNE wins just for being one of the most visually impressive movies of the year.
Drive My Car - Flee - The Hand of God - Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom - The Worst Person in the World
DRIVE MY CAR wins.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Ascension - Attica - Flee - Summer of Soul - Writing With Fire
SUMMER OF SOUL wins.
ANIMATED FEATURE:
Encanto - Flee - Luca - Mitchells Vs the Machines - Raya and the Last Dragon
It kinda sucks that Flee will likely lose all three of these, but ENCANTO wins.
Coda - Drive My Car - Dune - The Lost Daughter - Power of the Dog
Dog probably needs this to take Picture, but CODA winning BAFTA and WGA settled the race.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Belfast - Don't Look Up - King Richard - Licorice Pizza - Worst Person in the World
This is a fun category to watch, at least as far as the race goes. Pizza won BAFTA, but I can't help but feel this is the best place for BELFAST to take a win.
Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
Troy Kotsur - CODA
Jesse Plemmons - The Power of the Dog
JK Simmons - Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog
TROY KOTSUR has been charming voters all season, and he'll join his co-star Marlee Matlin as giving the only two deaf Oscar-winning performances.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Judi Dench - Belfast
Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard
A clean sweep for ARIANA DEBOSE.
LEADING ACTOR:
Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield - Tick Tick Boom
Will Smith - King Richard
Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
A clean sweep for WILL SMITH.
LEADING ACTRESS:
Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart - Spencer
The only acting category where there is a race. I would love to see the vote tallies, because I think this is close all the way down. None of these were even nominated for the BAFTA, which is such a crazy turn of events. I'm honestly not certain who is even last. Cruz has the advantage of being in a film from a studio that knows how to run a campaign, and she's appearing in a lot of those secret ballots. Stewart's buzz was early, but this just feels like a "Welcome to the club!" nomination. Kidman won the Globe, but her work and look in the film is probably too divisive. Colman feels like she's going to win a second Oscar sooner or later, and Lost Daughter clearly has supporters. While she appears in a film with mixed/negative reviews, JESSICA CHASTAIN has been campaigning her ass off, and has the SAG. I give her the edge, but's its very slight.
DIRECTING:
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg - West Side Story
JANE CAMPION wins.
BEST PICTURE:
BELFAST - CODA - DON'T LOOK UP - DRIVE MY CAR - DUNE - KING RICHARD - LICORICE PIZZA - NIGHTMARE ALLEY - THE POWER OF THE DOG - WEST SIDE STORY
That long time between nominations and the ceremony allowed people to get bored of the initial frontrunner The Power of the Dog. Yes, it led the nominations and things seemed settled. It very well could prevail in the end. But over the past month, Apple has run one of the most aggressive campaigns since the heyday of Weinstein. The streamer pushed its nominee and its cast everywhere. Buzz has been building, and its now (ironically) near deafening. People apparently want to feel good. A slew of trivia is about to be born, and stats are going to be thrown out the window. I almost didn't buy it a few days ago, but now it seems almost like a done deal. CODA is winning Best Picture.
(Friendly reminder that I was wrong about the Best Picture winner from 2014 to 2019. I got it right last year, though.)
((I will be back with my own picks late tomorrow night.))
DARREN'S OSCAR PREDIX (TL;DR EDITION)
Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball
(alt: Three Songs for Benazir)
Best Short Film - Animated: Robin Robin
(alt: Bestia)
Best Short Film - Live Action: The Long Goodbye
(alt: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run)
Best Visual Effects: Dune
(alt: Spider-Man: No Way Home)
Best Sound: Dune
(alt: West Side Story)
Best Music - Original Song: "No Time To Die" - No Time To Die
(alt: "Dos Oruguitas" - Encanto)
Best Music - Original Score: Dune
(alt: The Power of the Dog)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
(alt: Dune)
Best Production Design: Dune
(alt: Nightmare Alley)
Best Costume Design: Cruella
(alt: West Side Story)
Best Film Editing: Dune
(alt: King Richard)
Best Cinematography: Dune
(alt: The Power of the Dog)
Best International Feature Film: Drive My Car
(alt: The Worst Person in the World)
Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
(alt: Flee)
Best Animated Feature: Encanto
(alt: Flee)
Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA
(alt: The Power of the Dog)
Best Original Screenplay: Belfast
(alt: Licorice Pizza)
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur - CODA
(alt: Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog)
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
(alt: Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog)
Best Leading Actor: Will Smith - King Richard
(alt: Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog)
Best Leading Actress: Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
(alt: Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers)
Best Directing: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
(alt: Steven Spielberg - West Side Story)
Best Picture: CODA
(alt: The Power of the Dog)
Winner Tallies:
Dune - 6
CODA - 3
The Eyes of Tammy Faye - 2 (OMG!)
Everything Else - 1
If Power of the Dog goes 1 out of 12, that would mean it ties with The Color Purple and The Turning Point as the most losing-ist films in Oscar history, all losing 11.
As I said, lots of stats waiting to be broken.
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