These are announced Tuesday morning at 8:18AM Eastern (on ABC and the Academy website) by Tracee Ellis Ross and Leslie Jordan. Quite a combo, though Tracee did this three years ago. My annual plee to return the announcement to the Academy Prez and a previous nominee/winner at a live press conference, instead of two random actors doing a power point presentation. Anyways...
VISUAL EFFECTS
DUNE
GODZILLA VS KONG
THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS
SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
alt: No Time To Die
The bakeoff was those 6, plus Black Widow, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Eternals, and Free Guy.
SOUND
DUNE
NO TIME TO DIE
THE POWER OF THE DOG
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
WEST SIDE STORY
alt: A Quiet Place: Part 2
The bakeoff was those, plus Last Night In Soho, Tick Tick Boom, The Matrix Resurrections, and Belfast.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"JUST LOOK UP" - DON'T LOOK UP
"DOS ORIGUITAS" - ENCANTO
"BE ALIVE" - KING RICHARD
"NO TIME TO DIE" - NO TIME TO DIE
"HERE I AM (SINGING MY WAY HOME)" - RESPECT
alt: "Down To Joy" - Belfast
Don't Look Up and Encanto really submitted the wrong songs, especially with "We Don't Talk About Bruno" blowing up.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
DUNE
ENCANTO
THE FRENCH DISPATCH
NO TIME TO DIE
THE POWER OF THE DOG
alt: Parallel Mothers
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
COMING 2 AMERICA
CRUELLA
DUNE
THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
HOUSE OF GUCCI
alt: The Suicide Squad
PRODUCTION DESIGN
DUNE
THE FRENCH DISPATCH
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY
alt: Cyrano
COSTUME DESIGN
CRUELLA
DUNE
HOUSE OF GUCCI
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
WEST SIDE STORY
alt: Cyrano
CINEMATOGRAPHY
DUNE
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE POWER OF THE DOG
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY
alt: Belfast
Lots of B&W to choose from this year.
FILM EDITING
BELFAST
DON'T LOOK UP
DUNE
LICORICE PIZZA
THE POWER OF THE DOG
alt: West Side Story
Summer of Soul could surprise here.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
DRIVE MY CAR
FLEE
THE HAND OF GOD
A HERO
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
alt: Compartment No. 6
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
ASCENSION
ATTICA
FLEE
THE RESCUE
SUMMER OF SOUL
alt: The Velvet Underground
ANIMATED FEATURE
ENCANTO
FLEE
LUCA
THE MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES
RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON
alt: Belle
I have to imagine that Flee getting all three of these categories would be a first?
WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
DRIVE MY CAR
THE LOST DAUGHTER
THE POWER OF THE DOG
WEST SIDE STORY
alt: Dune
Dune seems to be the typical technical juggernaut that misses screenplay (Gravity, Mad Max: Fury Road). Fingers crossed for a Rebecca Hall surprise.
WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEING THE RICARDOS
BELFAST
DON'T LOOK UP
KING RICHARD
LICORICE PIZZA
alt: Parallel Mothers
This lineup seems to be the most locked of the top 8, though it's considered a very weak lineup. So Almodovar, Wes Anderson, Asghar Farhadi, or Mike Mills could break in.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
BRADLEY COOPER - LICORICE PIZZA
CIARAN HINDS - BELFAST
TROY KOTSUR - CODA
JARED LETO - HOUSE OF GUCCI
KODI SMIT-MCPHEE - THE POWER OF THE DOG
alt: Jesse Plemmons - The Power of the Dog
Jesus, I have no idea what to do with that last slot or the alternate. Ben Affleck feels like that typical SAG+Globe anomaly in a film no one is talking about. Jared Leto gave one of the most mocked performances in recent years, yet still got a SAG nom. And he got one last year, so clearly he's more respected than people think. Jesse Plemmons would be worthy, but he has very little to do overall in his film. Jamie Dornan only got the Globe, and that feels like their star-fucking nom. (If only we could factor in Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar...) Mike Faist seemed like a sure thing earlier in the season, but his film is a bomb and likely to underperform. There's also JK Simmons, but he hasn't showed up anywhere. Maye they'll just fraud Lakeith Stanfield again. In the end, I went with Jared because back to back SAG noms has to mean something. Plus, House of Gucci is going to be the highest grossing acting nominee at just over $52m. What a shame Colman Domingo couldn't get any major traction for Zola.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
CAITRIONA BALFE - BELFAST
ARIANA DEBOSE - WEST SIDE STORY
KIRSTEN DUNST - THE POWER OF THE DOG
AUNJANUE ELLIS - KING RICHARD
RUTH NEGGA - PASSING
alt: Cate Blanchett - Nightmare Alley
I went the Globe lineup, but there's always a Judi Dench chance.
ACTOR IN LEADING ROLE
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH - THE POWER OF THE DOG
LEONARDO DICAPRIO - DON'T LOOK UP
ANDREW GARFIELD - TICK TICK BOOM
WILL SMITH - KING RICHARD
DENZEL WASHINGTON - THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
alt: Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
Leo and Javier are fighting neck and neck for that last slot, with Peter Dinklage as a spoiler.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
JESSICA CHASTAIN - THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
OLIVIA COLMAN - THE LOST DAUGHTER
NICOLE KIDMAN - BEING THE RICARDOS
LADY GAGA - HOUSE OF GUCCI
KRISTEN STEWART - SPENCER
alt: Jennifer Hudson - Respect
Also, Alana Haim. Those are top 7, and it's probably any combination of them. Gaga is only person in this category who hasn't missed a precursor, something most didn't see coming. I can honestly say I've never really doubted Chastain, she's been hustling like crazy. Stewart has been everywhere, but her film is very divisive to say the least.
DIRECTING
KENNETH BRANAGH - BELFAST
RYUSUKE HAMAGUCHI - DRIVE MY CAR
DENIS VILLENEUVE - DUNE
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON - LICORICE PIZZA
JANE CAMPION - THE POWER OF THE DOG
alt: Steven Spielberg - West Side Story
So there's a statistic that says no directing lineup hasn't had at least one first time nominee in 70 years, and these damn Drive My Car fans have convinced me. I wouldn't be surprised if Branagh missed either.
BEST PICTURE
BELFAST
CODA
DON'T LOOK UP
DRIVE MY CAR
DUNE
KING RICHARD
LICORICE PIZZA
THE POWER OF THE DOG
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY
alt: Being the Ricardos
I'm going to regret going so big for Drive My Car, aren't I?
Potential nomination tally:
Dune - 10
The Power of the Dog - 10
West Side Story - 7
Belfast - 6
Don't Look Up - 5
King Richard - 5
Licorice Pizza - 5
Drive My Car - 4
House of Gucci - 4
The Tragedy of Macbeth - 4
CODA - 3
Encanto - 3
Flee - 3
Nightmare Alley - 3
No Time To Die - 3
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