Box: Holiday Special

Lots of excitement and not just Star Wars.

The Last Jedi debuted to a terrific $220m last weekend. With Christmas Eve falling on a Sunday, that might deflate some of the weekend so it will have a bigger drop than usual before it comes back strong on Monday. It's 4-day gross should be over $100m, though. I expect it to finish with about $730m domestically.

In a battle for second place will be Jumanji: Welcome To the Jungle and Pitch Perfect 3. The latter will likely be frontloaded towards this weekend, while the former actually has solid reviews and good reaction from audiences. I expect both to be around $30m for the 3-day. Jumanji did $7m yesterday, so it's already off to a good star. Pitch will likely hit the low hundreds for a total, while Jumanji can go much further - probably $150-175m.

The Greatest Showman did $2.5m on Wednesday and earned an "A" from Cinemascore. It really seems like something that might take off on Christmas Day despite the mostly negative reaction from critics. A 4-day of about $20m is possible, and a domestic total between $75-85m looks right.

Opening tomorrow is Downsizing and Father Figures. Both will just barely cross $10m for the 4-day. I'm not sure why the studio decided on Christmas to release Father Figures, which was supposed to open back in January when it was called Bastards. Downsizing needed great reviews to take off, and despite Hong Chau being a presence during this award season, it hasn't gotten any other major nominations. Matt Damon repeatedly putting his foot in his mouth probably won't hurt it, but it certainly won't help. Father Figures will probably finish with between $25-30m, and Downsizing probably won't go much further than $35-40m unless the concept really takes off with audiences. I'm not expecting a good Cinemascore.

Opening on Christmas Day is All the Money in the World. With solid reviews and some free marketing courtesy of the Spacey revelations, this might do decently. It won't be Ridley Scott's biggest hit, certainly. If audiences like it, it should have decent legs. It's Christmas Day gross will probably be about $3m.

Expanding just above the wide threshold will be The Darkest Hour and The Shape of Water. Both have done solidly so far, and will hit $3m-4m for the 4-day. Molly's Game will open in 250+ theaters on Monday before expanding wide on January 5th. It should at least do better than Miss Sloane, but not quite The Zookeeper's Wife.

Among holdovers, the animated Ferdinand disappointed last weekend but should have nice legs throughout the holidays. (John Cena legs!) A 4-day of $10m looks right, and even with a subpar opening, it can get to $85-90m. Coco is currently at $154m and will get to $200m+ with great weekdays ahead. Likewise, Wonder should be able to $130m+ from it's current gross of $112m.