OSCAR PREDICTIONS!

Announced tomorrow morning, in case you didn't know.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Anna Karenina - Life of Pi - Lincoln - The Master - Skyfall

Alt: Zero Dark Thirty

Despite the divisive nature of The Master, it should still show in this category.  Django could also spoil.  Despite the ASC nom, I don't expect Les Miserables to be nominated. 

 

COSTUME DESIGN

Anna Karenina - Les Miserables - Lincoln - Mirror Mirror - A Royal Affair

Alt: Django Unchained
Snow White and the Huntsman has a chance.  The other movies will have stronger support, even if this is a category where lots of films receive their sole nominations. 

 

FILM EDITING

Argo - Django Unchained - Life of Pi - Lincoln - Zero Dark Thirty



Alt: Skyfall
I'll cut a bitch if Les Miserables shows up here.  Skyfall is something that could easily receive 5-6 nods, but might also only get in a couple categories.  Predicted Silver Linings briefly, but then took it out. 

MAKEUP

The Hobbit - Lincoln - Men In Black 3

Alt: Les Miserables
The bakeoff consisted of the above 4, Hitchcock, Looper and Snow White and the Huntsman.  Yes, shockingly no Cloud Atlas.  That seemed like an easy win.  Bleh.

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Anna Karenina - Django Unchained - The Hobbit - Les Miserables - Lincoln



Alt: The Master

I kept forgetting about The Hobbit.  Cloud Atlas is another possibility.  I'd love for Moonrise Kingdom to get in here. 

 

SOUND MIXING

The Dark Knight Rises - Les Miserables - Life of Pi - Skyfall - Zero Dark Thirty

Alt: The Avengers

SOUND EDITING

The Avengers - The Dark Knight Rises - Life of Pi - Skyfall - Zero Dark Thirty

Alt: Django Unchained

 Any film that's a major threat for Best Picture, any action movie, any blockbuster, any musical and any animated film should always be under consideration for either of these categories.  There's almost too many options this year. 

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Avengers - The Dark Knight Rises - The Hobbit - Life of Pi - Prometheus

Alt: Cloud Atlas
The bakeoff consisted of the above 6, The Amazing Spider-Man, John Carter, Skyfall and Snow White and the Huntsman.

MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE

Anna Karenina - Argo - Cloud Atlas - Life of Pi - Lincoln

Alt: Zero Dark Thirty

More options: Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Master.  It makes me mad those forgettable Argo and Lincoln scores will get in based on the popularity of their films.  Blech.  Cloud is probably wishful thinking. 

 

MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG

"Learn Me Right" - Brave
"Who Did That To You?" - Django Unchained

"Suddenly" - Les Miserables

"Still Alive" - Paul Williams Still Alive

"Skyfall" - Skyfall

Alt: "Breath of Life" - Snow White and the Huntsman

There's about 70ish songs on the bakeoff list, and about half of them could easily score a nomination.  That includes, God help us, "Wide Awake" from Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D.  Yes, Katy could be an Oscar nominee in the morning.  I have no idea about this "Still Alive" song, but everyone else is predicting it.  This is also The Hunger Games best chance at a nomination, with the Arcade Fire's "Abraham's Daughter". 

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

Brave - Frankenweenie - The Painting - ParaNorman - Wreck-It Ralph

Alt: Rise of the Guardians

I don't really know what The Painting is, but something foreign seems to always slip in the lineup.  Go ParaNorman!

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Bully - The Gatekeepers - How To Survive a Plague - The Imposter - Searching For Sugar Man

Alt: The Invisible War

Shot in the dark, as always. 

 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Amour - The Intouchables - Kon-Tiki - No - War Witch

Alt: A Royal Affair

Second shot in the dark.  Did I hit anything?

 

THE BIG 8

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo - Beasts of the Southern Wild - Life of Pi - Lincoln - Silver Linings Playbook

Alt: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Slight chance that Perks might knock out Pi, instead of Beasts.  

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Amour - Django Unchained - The Master - Moonrise Kingdom - Zero Dark Thirty

Alt: Looper

Probably of all the top 8 categories, this is the one I'm more certain of.  A potential surprise: Middle of Nowhere. 

 

DIRECTING

Ben Affleck - Argo

Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained

Ang Lee - Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty

Alt: Tom Hooper - Les Miserables

Ben, Steven and Kathryn are in.  Easy, despite Spielberg's BAFTA snub.  Ang Lee, being a previous winner and clearly loved by the Academy, is probably safe.  The last slot is up for grabs.  Outside of Tarantino and Hooper, there's the chance that an auteur might surprise: Haneke, Paul Thomas Anderson, Wes Anderson.  Maybe David O. Russell, depending how well Silver Linings is liked.  That being said, given the divisive nature of his film and how much of its faults are blamed on him, I'm sitting Hooper out.  Tarantino gets in based on his film becoming a huge hit at just the right time. 

 

 

Regarding the acting categories, there are 12 people who have scored BFCA + Globe + SAG + BAFTA = Cooper, Day-Lewis, Jackman, Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence, Arkin, Hoffman, Jones, Field, Hathaway and Hunt.  The only person to hit all of the precursors and not make it Oscar nomination morning was Tilda Swinton last year.  So, given history usually falls on the side of getting nominated, everyone above is safe. 

 

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

John Hawkes - The Sessions

Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables

Denzel Washington - Flight

Alt: Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

The milkshake-drinking president is locked.  Cooper, believe it or not, is the next safest.  The next three + Joaquin are duking it out.  The preferential voting should push Joauqin to a nomination, but I just can't help but feel he shot himself in the foot with his comments earlier in the season. 

 

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alan Arkin - Argo

Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Alt: Leonardo Dicaprio - Django Unchained

Or Javier Bardem, Dwight Henry, Matthew McConaughey, Samuel L. Jackson, Ewan McGregor?  It would be awesome if after inexplicably getting shafted by the Globes, SAG and BAFTA, McConaughey still gets nominated.  Hooray, male strippers!

 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams - The Master

Sally Field - Lincoln

Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Helen Hunt - The Sessions

Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy

Alt: Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Or Judi Dench or Ann Dowd.  Man, I really want to throw Amy out and put Ann in?!?!  I can't help but feel that I'll end up being disappointed in the morning for buying into the Kidman hype.  This category is so weird this year?  I really do wonder what would happen if there was no Les Miserables?  Would Anne have gotten in anyways for The Dark Knight Rises?  But who would win?  They really wouldn't give Sally Field a third.  Field and Hathaway are going to absorb a lot of #1's, which means there's a surprise lurking here.

 

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Alt: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

I can't see Helen Mirren taking up a lot of top lines of ballots.  Watts is just campaigning too hard to miss.  Given the outpouring for her, It'd be hugely shocking to be snubbed. 

 

 

BEST PICTURE:

Argo - Les Miserables - Life of Pi - Lincoln - Zero Dark Thirty

6. Silver Linings Playbook

7. Django Unchained

8. Amour

9. Moonrise Kingdom

10. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Alt: The Master

 

There, I'm predicting 8 Best Picture nominees. 

 

TALLY:

Lincoln - 12

Life of Pi - 9

Django Unchained - 7

Les Miserables - 7

Zero Dark Thirty - 7

Argo - 6

Silver Linings Playbook - 5

Amour - 3