OSCAR PREDICTIONS!!

LOL - The Shorts.

Short - Live Action:
Miracle Fish

Short - Documentary:
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

Short - Animated:
Logorama

Yeah, no clue with those.

Documentary Feature:
The Cove
alt - Food Inc.

Foreign Language Film:
El Secreto De Sus Ojos
alt - The White Ribbon

ANIMATED FEATURE:
UP - 54% chance of winning
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 30%
Coraline - 10%
The Secret of Kells - 4%
The Princess and the Frog - 2%

VISUAL EFFECTS:
AVATAR - 92% chance of winning
Star Trek - 6%
District 9 - 2%
Put it like this: If Avatar loses this, it would indicated the Academy is actively against it, and it will lose everything else.

SOUND EDITING:
AVATAR - 44% chance of winning
The Hurt Locker - 33%
Star Trek - 10%
Inglourious Basterds 8%
Up - 5%
Hurt could win here, too. If it does, it's an easy stroll to Picture.

SOUND MIXING:
THE HURT LOCKER - 41% chance of winning
Avatar - 38%
Inglourious Basterds - 10%
Star Trek - 6%
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 5%
I think Hurt is taking one sound category, and its chances in mixing are better than editing.

MAKEUP:
STAR TREK - 55% chance of winning
The Young Victoria - 35%
Il Divo - 10%

ORIGINAL SONG:
"THE WEARY KIND", Crazy Heart - 50% chance of winning
"Down in New Orleans", The Princess and the Frog - 25%
"Take It All", Nine - 15%
"Almost There", The Princess and the Frog - 6%
"Loin De Paname", Paris 36 - 4%
The wins here can be pretty random, but I think there's no way Crazy is losing.

ORIGINAL SCORE:
UP - 46% chance of winning
Avatar - 20%
The Hurt Locker - 17%
Sherlock Holmes - 12%
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 5%
Again, if Hurt wins here, it's winning picture no contest.

ART DIRECTION:
SHERLOCK HOLMES - 32% chance of winning
Avatar - 31%
Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 14%
The Young Victoria - 13%
Nine - 10%
Any of these could win. I think Avatar has the same disadvantage it his in this category as it does in cinematography: how much of it will be considered visual effects. So I went for standard Victorian decoration, not the young kind.

COSTUME DESIGN:
THE YOUNG VICTORIA - 36% chance of winning
Coco Before Chanel - 18%
Bright Star - 17%
Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 15%
Nine - 14%
The bigger and prettier, the easier to predict.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
THE WHITE RIBBON - 25% chance of winning
The Hurt Locker - 23%
Inglourious Basterds - 22%
Avatar - 20%
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 10%
Most agree this is the hardest category to predict. Consider a lot of Avatar's cinematography was visual effects. Consider they typically go with the "prettiest" nominee - that would probably be Basterds. It has the most iconic shots - think Shoshanna's projection through the smoke in the theatre, or Shoshanna standing in the attic of the cinema looking through the glass, or anything with Shoshanna. Hurt Locker is the grainiest, but it's also the eventual Picture winner which may help it here. In the end, I went with the B&W White Ribbon. Even though it wasn't filmed in B&W, voters will be all "OMG! B&W" and mark it. Right? Right?

FILM EDITING:
THE HURT LOCKER - 55% chance of winning
Avatar - 26%
Inglourious Basterds - 10%
Precious - 5%
District 9 - 4%
If Avatar wins here, it has a strong chance in Picture.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
UP IN THE AIR - 40% chance of winning
Precious - 20%
An Education - 18%
District 9 - 12%
In the Loop - 10%
Pretty much a done deal.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
THE HURT LOCKER - 39% chance of winning
Inglourious Basterds - 38%
Up - 12%
A Serious Man - 6%
The Messenger - 5%
If Basterds takes Screenplay and Cinematography, it might take Picture. But that probably won't happen.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
CHRISTOPH WALTZ - 65% chance of winning
Christopher Plummer - 12%
Stanley Tucci - 11%
Woody Harrelson - 10%
Matt Damon - 2%
Done deal. Though they could vote for Plummer considering he doesn't have an Oscar.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
MO'NIQUE - 70% chance of winning
Anna Kendrick - 12%
Vera Farmiga - 10%
Maggie Gyllenhaal - 7%
Penelope Cruz - 1%
If her anti-campaign "campaign" created a backlash, the Air gals could benefit. But that won't happen.

LEAD ACTOR:
JEFF BRIDGES - 68% chance of winning
Jeremy Renner - 14%
George Clooney - 9%
Colin Firth - 8%
Morgan Freeman - 1%
Bridges is long overdue. Easy.

LEAD ACTRESS:
SANDRA BULLOCK - 30% chance of winning
Meryl Streep - 28%
Carey Mulligan - 24%
Gabourey Sidibe - 16%
Helen Mirren - 2%
Perhaps out of all the top categories, this one could produce an upset. Streep is right on Bullock's tail and Mulligan might be right behind them. One thing is certain: Mirren can remain seated.

DIRECTING:
KATHRYN BIGELOW - 60% chance of winning
James Cameron - 22%
Quentin Tarantino - 8%
Jason Reitman - 6%
Lee Daniels - 4%
If Bigelow doesn't take this shit, I'm gonna dump an Avaturd on Cameron's head.

PICTURE:
THE HURT LOCKER - 29% chance of winning
Avatar - 18%
Inglourious Basterds - 15%
Up in the Air - 11%
Precious - 8%
Up - 7%
An Education - 5%
The Blind Side - 4%
District 9 - 2%
A Serious Man - 1%
10 nominees and the preferential ballot voting system might screw things up. Really, Avatar's only major wins came from the Golden Globes. Hurt has taken just about everything else, except for the SAG which went to the Basterds. It'll be one of those three. Probably. The voting method could screw things up. I hope they abandon it next year. Keep 10 nominees, though.

TOMORROW - WHO I'M ROOTING FOR!!!!