Oscar Predictions: Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire

Announced tomorrow morning at 8:30AM EST.


ART DIRECTION:
AVATAR
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
NINE
PUBLIC ENEMIES
SHERLOCK HOLMES

1st Alt - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
2nd Alt - The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Nine could easily be snubbed.


CINEMATOGRAPHY:
AVATAR
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
NINE
THE WHITE RIBBON

1st Alt - Bright Star
2nd Alt - A Serious Man
I do wonder if Avatar will be kicked out because of its digital-ness. Or it could win?


COSTUME DESIGN:
BRIGHT STAR
COCO BEFORE CHANEL
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
NINE
THE YOUNG VICTORIA

1st Alt - Sherlock Holmes
2nd Alt - Julie & Julia
Most of these are probably safe, Dr. Parnassus could show up here.


FILM EDITING:
AVATAR
DISTRICT 9
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
UP IN THE AIR

1st Alt - Star Trek
2nd Alt - Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire
Basterds was snubbed by the guild so is on shakey ground.


MAKEUP:
DISTRICT 9
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS
STAR TREK

1st Alt - The Road
2nd Alt - The Young Victoria
Thank god for bakeoffs. I think EVERYONE is predicting this lineup.


SOUND MIXING:
AVATAR
DISTRICT 9
THE HURT LOCKER
STAR TREK
TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN

1st Alt - Inglourious Basterds
2nd Alt - Nine
It would be awesome if Transformers receives ZERO noms, but it has its best shot at noms in the sound categories.


SOUND EDITING:
AVATAR
THE HURT LOCKER
STAR TREK
TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN
UP

1st Alt - District 9
2nd Alt - 2012


ORIGINAL SCORE:
AVATAR
THE INFORMANT!
A SINGLE MAN
SHERLOCK HOLMES
UP

1st Alt - Star Trek
2nd Alt - The Princess and the Frog
Yeah, so I have no idea what stupid rules this group made up to disqualify certain nominees. I think Princess and Frog was DQ'd but can't seem to find for sure. I know Where the Wild Things Are was. I think this is also the category for New Moon's best chance at a nom. LOL.


ORIGINAL SONG:
"I SEE YOU" - AVATAR
"WINTER" - BROTHERS
"THE WEARY KIND" - CRAZY HEART
"CINEMA ITALIANO" - NINE
"DOWN IN NEW ORLEANS" - THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG"

1st Alt - "All is Love" - Where the Wild Things Are
2nd Alt - "I Want to Come Home" - Everybody's Fine
This one is always tough. Totally random, too. Princess and Nine could each score 2 noms. Or this category could only have 3 nominees like last year. So who knows? I just listed as many songs as possible to be safe.


VISUAL EFFECTS:
AVATAR
DISTRICT 9
STAR TREK

1st Alt - Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
2nd Alt - 2012
Given the first Trans lost to Golden Compass, I think most people are snubbing it in their predictions.


ANIMATED FEATURE:
CORALINE
THE FANTASTIC MR. FOX
PONYO
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
UP

1st Alt - Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
2nd Alt - Mary and Max
I think most aren't predicting Ponyo, but I have getting in based on name alone.


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
THE MILK OF SORROW
A PROPHET
THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES
THE WHITE RIBBON
WINTER IN WARTIME

1st Alt - Ajami
2nd Alt - Samson & Delilah
Yeah.


DOCUMENTARY:
THE BEACHES OF AGNES
THE COVE
EVERY LITTLE STEP
FOOD, INC.
UNDER OUR SKIN

1st Alt - Valentino
2nd Alt - Which Way Home
Yeah again.


SUPPORTING ACTOR:
MATT DAMON - INVICTUS
WOODY HARRELSON - THE MESSENGER
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - THE LAST STATION
STANLEY TUCCI - THE LOVELY BONES
CHRISTOPH WALTZ - INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

1st Alt - Alfred Molina - An Education
2nd Alt - Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Or possibly one of Hurt Locker's supportin' fellas Mackie or Geraghty. I will say if either of those get in, Hurt is taking Picture easy. I'm not confident in Damon, but its been 12 years since his last acting nom, so I think they'll want him in somewhere.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
VERA FARMIGA - UP IN THE AIR
ANNA KENDRICK - UP IN THE AIR
MO'NIQUE - PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
JULIANNE MOORE - A SINGLE MAN
SAMANTHA MORTON - THE MESSENGER

1st Alt - Penelope Cruz, Nine
2nd Alt - Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Both supp. categories are the toughest of the big 8. It seems 3 locks in each category, followed by 4-5 people vying for the remaining 2 slots. Supporting actress is the one to watch. Mo'nique (and Waltz in S. Actor) will absorb most of the #1 votes, leading to a surprise probably in each category. (Think Ledger getting most of the votes last year, leading to Michael Shannon getting in.) When you throw in that Marion Cotillard, Melanie Laurent or even Maggie Gyllenhaal could show up here or in leading (where they were fraudulently campaigned), it makes it interesting. I guess I went with Morton because she's showed up before as a semi-surprise. But I'm anxiously anticipating this lineup, which probably means it'll end up being as boring as possible. Kruger's surprise SAG nom may just be a fluke, but she's been campaigning like crazy and has shown up to almost every show. The question is whether or not her late in the game buzz was too late.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
DISTRICT 9
AN EDUCATION
THE FANTASTIC MR. FOX
PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
UP IN THE AIR

1st Alt - Crazy Heart
2nd Alt - A Single Man
Yeah, I went with Fox here as a surprise. Julie and Julia could easily show up here, too.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
(500) DAYS OF SUMMER
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
A SERIOUS MAN
UP

1st Alt - The Hangover
2nd Alt - The Messenger
Fun fact: Every Golden Globe picture winner has gotten an Oscar nomination somewhere. I think Hangover might knock out (500) or even Up. But I'm not ballsy enough to predict it. Also, White Ribbon could show up here.


ACTOR:
JEFF BRIDGES - CRAZY HEART
GEORGE CLOONEY - UP IN THE AIR
COLIN FIRTH - A SINGLE MAN
MORGAN FREEMAN - INVICTUS
JEREMY RENNER - THE HURT LOCKER

1st Alt - Michael Stahlberg - A Serious Man
2nd Alt - Matt Damon - The Informant!
The hardest part about this was picking 2 alts. I think the lineup is safe, with Freeman surprisingly the most vulnerable.


ACTRESS:
SANDRA BULLOCK - THE BLIND SIDE
HELEN MIRREN - THE LAST STATION
CAREY MULLIGAN - AN EDUCATION
GABOUREY SIDIBE - PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
MERYL STREEP - JULIE AND JULIA

1st Alt - Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
2nd Alt - Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Again, Laurent, Cotillard or Gyllenhaal could spoil. Maybe even Abbie Cornish given that Bullock & Streep will probably absorb a lot of #1 spots.


DIRECTING:
JAMES CAMERON - AVATAR
KATHRYN BIGELOW - THE HURT LOCKER
QUENTIN TARANTINO - INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
LEE DANIELS - PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
JASON REITMAN - UP IN THE AIR

1st Alt - Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon
2nd Alt - Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Not confident in Lee Daniels. My predicted nominees is the DGA lineup. Apparently, the DGA lineup never makes it, with one usually being snubbed. Haneke will benefit from the preferential ballot system. Eastwood is the old standby. Originally, I had Neil Blomkamp as the 2nd alt.


BEST PICTURE:
AVATAR: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
DISTRICT 9: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
AN EDUCATION: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
THE HURT LOCKER: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
INVICTUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
PRECIOUS
A SERIOUS MAN: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
UP: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
UP IN THE AIR: BASED ON THE NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE

1st Alt - The White Ribbon
2nd Alt - The Hangover
3rd Alt - The Messenger

First, I really don't buy Star Trek showing up here. Avatar and District 9 will absorb the sci-fi vote. D9 has the advantage of a surprise Globe screenplay nod, strong guild prescence and a solid BAFTA showing, as well as a PGA nod. I think it will make it in, but it's shakey. Probably my least confident prediction. Invictus seems to have faded, but it's Eastwood. Almost everyone is predicting Up, but states they wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't make it. Isn't that why we expanded to 10, so animated films could make it in? And foreign films? The White Ribbon, which no one is really predicting. But I have it as an alternate. And that rule about the Globe picture winners always getting an Oscar nom could help Hangover here. I hope not. But it could. So basically, we have 7-8 safe films, and about 7-8 that could show up in the remaining slots. Don't forget (500) Days of Summer, A Single Man, Crazy Heart or GOD HELP US The Blind Side possibly showing up.

I guess expanding the field to 10 did create some excitement. But the decision will prove itself when the actual nominations are announced. If it works in favor of Pixar, A Serious Man, District 9 or The Messenger, it will have payed off.

But if the flop that was Nine makes it in to Best Picture, we'll probably be be back to five next year.


Anywho, good luck everybody!