PreDIX: The Top 8

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Chance of winning -
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE - 50%
The Reader - 35%
Frost/Nixon - 10%
Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 4%
Doubt - 1%

Personal Rank:
1. The Reader
2. Frost/Nixon
3. Doubt
4. Slumdog Millionaire
5. Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This category really sucks this year. Original screenplay is where its at.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Chance of winning -
MILK - 36%
Wall-E - 25%
Happy-Go-Lucky - 18%
In Bruges -16%
Frozen River - 5%

Personal Rank:
1. In Bruges
2. Happy-Go-Lucky
3. Milk
4. Wall-E
5. Frozen River

A fabulous lineup. Sad that the next set of 5 screenplays (#6-10, whatever they might have been) were probably better than all of the adapted screenplay noms. I look forward to Dustin Lance Black's speech.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Chance of winning -
PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA - 32%
Viola Davis - 28%
Amy Adams - 15%
Marisa Tomei - 14%
Taraji P. Henson - 11%

Personal Rank:
1. Penelope Cruz
2. Marisa Tomei
3. Amy Adams
4. Viola Davis
5. Taraji P. Henson

A really terrific lineup of actresses, not a terrific lineup of performances. Decent, not terrific. Most people have Adams last, but I can't help but feeling she has more industry support than some think especially considering she deserved to win 3 years ago for Junebug. Davis has the potential to the big upset out of the big 8 categories. Henson might be a way to reward Benjamin in a top category. I think Penelope has this in the bag, but given that Winslet won most of the major awards in supporting for Reader, I think people might just be thrown off. And then there's the reasoning people have for predicting Tomei - the same reason some predicted her to win for In the Bedroom: to prove her Oscar win for My Cousin Vinny was for real. Fo real?


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Chance of winning -
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT - 75%
Josh Brolin - 9%
Robert Downey Jr - 8%
Philip Seymour Hoffman - 6%
Michael Shannon - 2%

PERSONAL RANK:
1. Josh Brolin
2. Heath Ledger
3. Robert Downey Jr
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman
5. Michael Shannon

If I were an Academy voter, there'd be NO QUESTION here as to who would receive my vote: Heath. Despite my thinking that Brolin gave the better performance, Heath was royally robbed for his Brokeback performance. This also would be why if I were trashed (and an Academy member - then again aren't most academy members drunk when filling out the ballot) I'd vote for Amy Adams this year.


BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

Chance of winning-
MICKEY ROURKE, THE WRESTLER - 36%
Sean Penn - 35%
Frank Langella - 20%
Richard Jenkins - 7%
Brad Pitt - 2%

Peronal rank:
1. Mickey Rourke
2. Sean Penn
3. Frank Langella
4. Richard Jenkins
5. Brad Pitt

I can't recall the last time 2 more deserving performances went head to head like this. Either Sean or Mickey, I'll be doing a Sharon Stone-esque one man standing ovation when Harvery or the Ram win. Which probably means Nixon will win.


BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

Chance of winning-
KATE WINSLET, THE READER - 34%
Meryl Streep - 28%
Anne Hathaway - 20%
Melissa Leo - 12%
Angelina Jolie - 6%

Personal Rank:
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Kate Winslet
3. Melissa Leo
4. Meryl Streep
5. Angelina Jolie

Let's get this out of the way: Kate DESERVED to win for Eternal Sunshine. SHOULD HAVE WON. But didn't. I don't have a problem with her winning at all - her or Leo (Melissa, not D-cap). Jolie and Streep are fillers to me, even though Meryl winning would probably be the high point of the night. Kate was better in her other R movie this year, but Anne is really above all these women. TEAMHATHAWAY4LYFE! Though, as a fAnne, I think it would be bad for her to win now. The WINSLUTS will eat her alive. There's lots of cliques and bad blood in the best actress category every year. Same shit, different year.


BEST DIRECTING:

Chances of winning-
DANNY BOYLE, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE - 45%
David Fincher - 19%
Stephen Daldry - 18%
Gus Van Sant - 17%
Ron Howard - 1%

Personal Rank:
1. Gus Van Sant
2. Danny Boyle
3. David Fincher
4. Stephen Daldry
5. Ron Howard

Well, it's pretty cool that the director of 28 Days Later will have an Oscar.


BEST PICTURE!

Chance of winning-
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE - 45%
Milk - 20%
The Reader - 19%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 15%
Frost/Nixon - 1%

Personal Rank:
1. Milk
2. The Reader
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Frost/Nixon

When it comes to the Academy and Oscar-watching, rule #1 - Know that they like to give out makeup Oscars. Remember when Brokeback won,....er, it lost. Remember that? Everyone said the next gay film nominated for Best Picture - and as much as I would have liked The Departed to be a gay film, it was not - would win. Well, bleh. SLUMDOG has won EVERYTHING. EVERY GUILD. EVERY MAJOR AWARD. It would be almost impossible for it to lose. Even if it deserves to and probably won't be too well liked in a few years. Rule #2 of Oscar-watching: Weinstein owns the Academy. And I will admit, The Reader is a movie that has grown with me. Maybe it's Lena Olin's scene? Dunno. Benjamin Button deserved about 4 of its 13 nominations, maybe less. Frost/Nixon is typical Ron Howard fare: well made and technically flashy enough to make you not notice how hollow it is. But really - Milk is so far ahead of the other 4 that to the Academy, the phrase "Got Milk?" shouldn't even be a question.


Been a fun season, huh?

You are right. It has not.