Oscar Predictions: Top 8

(Please let this be me tomorrow after the nominations!)

I'm certain that if footage of me watching the Oscar nominations being announced was to ever make its way to YouTube, the result would probably be scarier than Chris Crocker's Leave Britney Alone. Going from Salma Hayek-esque YES!'s to cursing to sobbing uncontrollably on the floor to loud What-the-what's in a matter of seconds, any question about my sanity at this point would disappear. It's not exhausting to me, rather a big rush of adrenaline. Run back to the computer to see the technical categories, then run around the house in excitement/disappointment/anger/frustration/elation/all of the above.

Away we go:

Best Adapted Screenplay:

This one is rather easy. If either Kate Winslet literary adaptation has a shot at a major nomination outside of a Winslet nom, it's here. I think the only possible surprise would be Gomorrah, which some people are using as a No Guts, No Glory. Last year, my major NGNG came here, with Away From Her. But I love Sarah Polley.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
1st Alt - The Reader
2nd Alt - Revolutionary Road


Best Original Screenplay:

This one, however, is quite complicated. Milk, to me, is the only lock here. Then, there's about 7-8 films vying for the remaining 4 slots. Woody is probably safe. Rachel Getting Married seemed to be a lock a month ago, but as has been pointed out many times, the film is very divisive. Outside of Miss Hathaway, who knows what kind of support it has? But the good thing is, those who love it really love it. And Sidney Lumet's daughter wrote it. And it won, or placed decently, in most critics' screenplay awards. I think it's in? That leaves Wall-E (Pixar shows up here consistently), The Wrestler (WGA nom'd), Burn After Reading (WGA & BAFTA nom'd), The Visitor (WGA nom'd) and possibly In Bruges (so deserving!) or Happy-Go-Lucky (they love Mike Leigh!) or Frozen River (ISA nom'd) Oh, and since they love Clint, maybe Gran Torino. But he didn't write it. It really doesn't help matters that the Golden Globes only nominated 5 adapted screenplays for their screenplay award. Damn them.

Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
The Wrestler
1st Alt - The Visitor
2nd Alt - In Bruges


Best Supporting Actor:

The fact that Ledger will absorb a LOT of number one votes means that someone shocking could squeak in here. I'm nonetheless going with the predicted 5 cause I'm a pussy. Bill Irwin, Michael Shannon, Brad Pitt, Ralph Fiennes? As long as it's not Tom Cruise...

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire
1st Alt - James Franco - Milk
2nd Alt - Eddie Marsan - Happy-Go-Lucky


Best Supporting Actress:

I'm hoping that the voters really didn't like Doubt that much, they just put it as their 4th or 5th choice, only everyone did that. That's why all four actors keep getting nominated. Rosemarie Dewitt could/will benefit from the preferential voting system. She won the Golden Satellite and was nominated for ISA and a assload of critics awards, but has been missing from the Globes, SAG, BFCA and Bafta shortlist. I REALLY REALLY want to predict her, but in the end, I'm chickening out. Also on the verge, Tilda Swinton (for either Button or Burn). Cruz and Davis are the safest. Adams will get an Oscar someday, and for some reason she keeps showing up for Doubt. I secretly think they, like me, loved her in Miss Pettigrew and wanted to nominate her for that. Henson will get a nomination at some point, and being in a (probable) Best Picture nominee will help her get in. Winslet could end up in lead, causing all sorts of chaos. Tomei is obviously liked by the Academy. Oh, and if someone in a brief role has the potential to pull a William Hurt - History of Violence style nom, it's Debra Winger. How fucking awesome would that be!??!?!

Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader
1st Alt - Amy Adams - Doubt
2nd Alt - Rosemarie Dewitt - Rachel Getting Married


Best Actor:

UGH, the Clint factor. UGH! Sean and Mickey are safe, unless they both pissed off too many people. Frank's in. That leaves 3 battling for the remaining two slots. I went with Clint cause the Academy loves to splooge their collective loads all over him, and with Jenkins cause he's probably worked with everyone in the Academy. Sorry, Brad. Maybe supporting? Maybe he'll switch with Dev? Leo's out, unless they love Rev. Road far more than anyone expects them to. Go COLIN FARRELL!!!! AND JAMES FRANCO!!!! To quote Kristen Wiig on SNL: "Hey, Clint! I've got two letters for you: F & U."

Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wreslter
1st Alt - Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2nd Alt - Colin Farrell - In Bruges


Best Actress:

Oh hellz yeah! I think Meryl is safe. Though I think it would be hilarious if she doesn't make it in here. Or even better: she gets nominated for Mamma Mia! Here I go again.... Kate's in. Maybe she'll go lead with The Reader. Maybe they disliked Rev Road that much? I want to believe Anne is in. I've gone from thinking she could win, wondering if she's just on the verge, thinking she won't be nominated, she was predicted by everyone almost to win the globe, I think she's winning, she loses, I wonder if she'll get the nod to this. I think more than any other name, I want hers to be called in the morning. I just adore her. And maybe I'll finally get to see her movie at some point. Anne Getting Nominated. Again, like actor - 3 actors in, 3 battling for 2 slots. Angelina, Melissa, and Sally duking it out. Sally was only nominated (and won) at the Globes, missing SAG (understandable) and BAFTA (completely unexplainable). Angelina has shown up everywhere, but I secretly think Hollywood is Team Aniston or Team Voight and they find Angie to be a freak. I don't know. Kristin Scott Thomas has been nominated for a Globe and the BAFTA and could be a spoiler. It all comes down to that number one thing. And if there's a No Guts, No Glory consensus - it's Michelle Williams.

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
1st Alt - Melissa Leo - Frozen River
2nd Alt - Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long


Best Director:

Fairly easy, Darren's the spoiler. Pic/Director usually go 4/5. But wait a second! What are all these veterans doing? Woody, Demme, Leigh, Eastwood? A veteran is usually the spoiler, unless it's someone young and hip.

David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
1st Alt - Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler
2nd Alt - Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino

(If Howard's out, and Darren takes his spot - wouldn't that be the coolest director lineup ever?)


Best Picture:

I'm guessing Pic matches Director here 5/5. I think they realize that Doubt, Rev Road, Reader don't have the reviews to get in. Vicky is Woody's best in years, so maybe. The Wrestler was a strong last minute entry in the race. Those who love Rachel really love it. That helps. And again, the Clint factor for Gran Torino.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
1st Alt - Wall-E
2nd Alt - The Wrestler