Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Box: I Cruised a Cruise

3 day / Total So Far / Projected Final Gross

1. The Hobbit - $38m / $150m / $300m
2. Jack Reacher - $18m / $18m / $100m
3. This Is 40 - $16m / $16m / $85m
4. Monsters Inc - $10m / $12.5m / $55m
5. The Guilt Trip - $9m / $11.5m / $60m
6. Lincoln - $5m / $116m / $150m
7. Rise of the Guardians - $5m / $78.5m / $100m
8. Skyfall - $4m / $279m / $300m
9. Life of Pi - $3m / $75m / $100m
10. Breaking Dawn Part 2 - $3m / $282m / $297m
Wreck-It Ralph - $2m / $172m / $182m
Silver Linings Playbook - $2m / $20m / $50m
Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away - $2m / $2m / $14m

5 movies hit wide release this week, 3 more on Tuesday.  Les Miserables had the potential to be the biggest, but the lackluster reviews will hinder that.  I expect The Hobbit to remain #1 from now until January 10.  Miserables could have a strong Christmas Day, but that will be it.  Jack Reacher should do Valkyrie-esque numbers and will be the biggest of this week's round of openers.  This Is 40 will not match the gross of Knocked Up, but it should outgross Funny People with ease.  The rerelease of Monsters Inc takes advantage of the lack of films in the market for young children, and will outgross the reissues of Finding Nemo and Beauty and the Beast.  Both of those finished in the 40's.  The Guilt Trip has an advantage of being the only PG-13 non-serious film in release, but even that won't get it much more than modest numbers.  Cirque Du Soleil is released in about 800 theaters, but some places only have 2 showing.  It'll sit outside the top 10 for the holiday timeframe.  Zero Dark Thirty opens today in 5 theaters and will see a massive PTA. 

As for Tuesday, I'm thinking Les Miserables does between 12-15 million, Django Unchained at 8, Parental Guidance at 4-5. 

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