Box: Thanksgiving Pi

The top ten this weekend will feature 4 of the inevitable Best Picture nominees. 

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2
3-day: $40m
Projected Final Gross: $300m
Depending on its drop this week and next, it has a chance at threepeating.  Very nice way to end the franchise.

2. Rise of the Guardians
3-day: $30m
Projected Final Gross: $140m
This is the last new animated film of the year (the 3D reissue of Monsters Inc hits theatres stupidly before Christmas), which will help it play well throughout the season.  Like many animated films released at Thanksgiving, it'll get a Christmas bump. 

3. Skyfall
3-day: $28m
Projected Final Gross: $265m
This baby keeps chugging along!

4. Lincoln
3-day: $20m
Projected Final Gross: $120m
The film is getting a slight bump in theatres for the long weekend, so I expect it to remain flat from last weekend.  It even has a chance of increasing, which both Walk the Line and The Blind Side did in previous years. 

5. Life of Pi
3-day: $18m
Projected Final Gross: $100m
I think once word spreads how spectacular the 3D supposedly is, legs and soft drops will kick in.  Much like Hugo last year, it'll benefit from awards.  That film opened with $11m and finished with $74m.

6. Wreck-It Ralph
3-day: $13m
Projected Final Gross: $175m
It gets some competition from the Guardians, but don't expect a big drop.  Ralph should continue to perform over the next several weekends.

7. Red Dawn
3-day: $11m
Projected Final Gross: $35m
Wednesday will be its biggest day, and might even experience some frontloading.  How long ago was this thing filmed again?  LOL.

8. Flight
3-day: $6.5m
Projected Final Gross: $90m
Given the budget of around $30m, this is a nice little success for the studio.  And further proof that you can make a big star vehicle with a spectacular action sequence and not an out of control budget.

9. The Silver Linings Playbook
3-day: $3m
Projected Final Gross: uh...$50m?
Expanding to 367 theaters for the holiday weekend, I don't expect a through-the-roof PTA and it won't do as well as The Descendants did last year.  That aside, this is to build word of mouth and it should work.  How far that ultimately takes the film is still uncertain.  It has the next two to three weeks to get the ball rolling and awards will help, but by that time the big Christmas movies will be arriving. 

10. Argo
3-day: $2.5m
Projected Final Gross: $105m
It'll cross $100m in the first days of December.  Good job!

Outside of the top 10, Anna Karenina expands to 66 theaters and will probably do $1 million over the 5-day.  Hitchcock opens Friday in 17 theaters.  Both films expand in the next few weeks.