SAG Predix

Announced tomorrow morning by Regina King and Judy Greer.

It really isn't pleasing me that these are announced before the Globes. I've always liked that SAGs more grounded nominees provide a clearer picture after the Globes' seemingly drunken selection. Maybe it'll be more fun this way, but I doubt it. It was always pretty easy guessing who SAG was nominating that would go onto the Oscar nom after the Globes overlooked them.

2008 - Melissa Leo & Richard Jenkins
2009 - Jeremy Renner

Though last year, Jacki Weaver and Michelle Williams got Globe nods but no SAG and still made the Oscar list. And getting both a Globe and SAG nod does not equal Oscar nom (hi, Mila Kunis!).

So here goes:

ENSEMBLE:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Alt: Bridesmaids
I'd say there's actually only about 8 or 9 films that could show up here. Bridesmaids has won a few critics group ensemble awards and has been nominated by just about every critics group, so it could easily make the lineup. I'm wondering just how late EL&IC screened as that could hurt it. Hugo is another film with a legit shot, but it might not be seen as an actor's film. All that aside, The Help is winning this in a cakewalk. SAG WINNER EMMA STONE. Learn it. Live it. Love it. The boring surprise could be Ides of March. God, that would be dull.
No Guts, No Glory: Rather than saying something random will show up, my choice here is that The Descendants will NOT be nominated. Clooney's last 2 films both received three acting noms, but missed ensemble. 2nd No Guts: Drive.

MALE ACTOR - LEADING:
George Clooney - The Descendants
Leondardo Dicaprio - J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Alt: Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I'm going the route that Leo will be this year's Cate Blanchett in The Golden Age (failed Oscarbait that still results in a nomination that everyone hates). Actually, a better comparision would be Ziyi Zhang in Memoirs of a Geisha. She showed up everywhere for a performance that was unspectacular but ultimately (and rightfully) missed the Oscar nom. That seems likely. Let's hope that's the case.
No Guts, No Glory: Thomas Horn - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. SAG loves it child actors.

FEMALE ACTOR - LEADING:
Viola Davis - The Help
Elizabeth Olsen - Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
Alt: Tilda Swinton - We Need To Talk About Kevin
The general consensus seems to be that Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs is DOA. She has showed up just one place (the Golden Satellites) though SAG and HFPA could easily revive her chances. Davis, Streep and Williams are the only sure bets. I gave Theron and Olsen the edge over Swinton because I get the feeling their movies have been seen more.
No Guts, No Glory: A Kristen. Dunst or Wiig.

MALE ACTOR - SUPPORTING:
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks - Drive
Patton Oswalt - Young Adult
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alt: Ben Kingsley - Hugo
With Nick Nolte and Corey Stoll as outside shots.
No Guts, No Glory: Brad Pitt - Tree of Life

FEMALE ACTOR - SUPPORTING:
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Vanessa Redgrave - Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
Alt: Berenice Bejo - The Artist
So can Chastain possibly score multiple noms here? And did enough people see her movie to get Redgrave in?
No Guts, No Glory: Bryce Dallas Howard - The Help.


As for TV, go Parks and Recreation and Community. SAG's TV categories are shitty shit shit.